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04-12-2012, 11:24 AM   #691
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Just a point to ponder:

I wonder how much influence the growth of eastern markets and wealth will affect camera sales. I've mentioned this in the past but a lot of growing economies (Four Asian Dragons, Tiger Cubs etc) are looking at a new class of big spenders at a young age. I know of a photographer that switched three bodies in a year, two of them full frame and new, before "settling" for a Leica. Young chap too, mid-to-late 20s.

Even my brother, no idea where he gets his money, switched three bodies himself in a year. The last one was a used one but his first two were new.

And I know a young girl that rapidly advanced through DSLRs (all new) before ending up with a Leica S2.

Mind boggling for me how they have so much money to burn, or their family is so willing to burn it, but I wonder if this will affect the traditional marketplace and its long-standing pattern. Most users are APS-C, definitely true, but most of the users I know there have a tendency to jump ship or upgrade rapidly - and they don't like used products either.

I always draw the comparison to US and its post-WW2 boom where everyone was just spending money. Asian markets are growing right now.

04-12-2012, 11:27 AM   #692
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QuoteOriginally posted by ElJamoquio Quote
I know that some people have a great deal of fondness for the micro-4/3rds cameras, but when I (actually Mrs. ElJamoquio) looked at them, they were too big to put into a pocket, just as expensive as a k-r, with less image quality, more focus problems, much worse ergonomics, poor low-and-high iso noise, and fun extra-unexplained-red-spots whenever you tried to take a picture of a sunset.

The noise probIem can be fixed... as can (probably has already) the red dots... but I guess I'm agreeing that M-4/3rds could have a problem before APS-C does.

.
Many people can find good reasons to prefer aps-c vs m/43, but don't acknowledge that many of those same reasons apply to FF vs aps-c.

.
04-12-2012, 11:35 AM   #693
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QuoteOriginally posted by jsherman999 Quote
Many people can find good reasons to prefer aps-c vs m/43, but don't acknowledge that many of those same reasons apply to FF vs aps-c.

.
NO WAY. Haha, just kidding/trolling. Very good point.

One thing worth noting - though I agree with you wholeheartedly - is that the price point for m/43 and aps-c is relatively close whereas it's quite a gap between asp-c and FF.
04-12-2012, 11:47 AM   #694
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QuoteOriginally posted by tjk911 Quote
I wonder how much influence the growth of eastern markets and wealth will affect camera sales
Is it having an effect on car sales?

It's the growth market. Brazil and other developing nations as well.

04-12-2012, 11:48 AM   #695
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QuoteOriginally posted by jsherman999 Quote
Many people can find good reasons to prefer aps-c vs m/43, but don't acknowledge that many of those same reasons apply to FF vs aps-c.

.
The outstanding difference is price. APS-C and m43 are pretty much the same. FF and APS-C are 98% of the market apart.
04-12-2012, 11:50 AM   #696
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QuoteOriginally posted by tjk911 Quote
NO WAY. Haha, just kidding/trolling. Very good point.

One thing worth noting - though I agree with you wholeheartedly - is that the price point for m/43 and aps-c is relatively close whereas it's quite a gap between asp-c and FF.
True - but would you rather spend $1500 for Canon 7D, or $2100 for a 5DII? $600 is the price of one mid-level lens.

The gap between say a D3x at $7500 and a K-5 at $1100 describes two different markets, but a high-end aps-c body vs an entry FF body is playing largely in the same market.

This is part of the reason more than a few folks think the "D400" will appear as a low-end FF body. Even if it doesn't, the fact that it's even considered as a feasible possibility now speaks to the aps-c DSLR pinch I always talk about.
04-12-2012, 11:51 AM   #697
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
Is it having an effect on car sales?

It's the growth market. Brazil and other developing nations as well.
Hmm. Necessity versus extravagance? I can see what you mean but I wonder if it's all that entirely applicable because car purchases are still primarily done through loans which is a lot of hoops to jump through. Whereas cameras are simple credit card purchases. Make it easy for your customers to spend money and it's more likely that they will.

But very good point. And I have no idea if it does or does not.

Another thing though, Malaysia has a 300% import tax on cars. So people don't spend on cars as much, at least they don't switch cars within a year (god I hope not).
04-12-2012, 11:57 AM   #698
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QuoteOriginally posted by jsherman999 Quote
But NEX is not DSLR, nor are the new Fujis. APS-C is going to probably become the domain of advanced-mirrorless, in which, because of the register distance, native K-mount will have a hard time playing.
He mentioned mirrorless. I was responding to that. 43 is agnostic of mirrors.

Register distance is only a negative if size is a factor. If legacy compatibility is a plus, then k-mount and register distance are a feature, not a bug. Pentax's answer to the mirrorless challenge is also the Q, which I call "fail" on because the sensor is too small. Nikon (V/J series) and Canon (G1x) get it right with considerably larger sensors.

Pentax with the Q went expensive on the body and cheap on the sensor and it sells nothing. My local camera store has no copies. I asked and it is a non-seller and lightly stocked nationwide. Vastly too expensive. I predict in 24 months the Q is abandoned or the price/quality point is moved substantially down.

DSLR APS-C still has enormous sales potential and will go strong for quite some time to come. It's a very high margin item that can bracket a vast price point range. Nothing in photography comes close. And the SLR format is still very relevant for its versatility.

04-12-2012, 12:02 PM   #699
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QuoteOriginally posted by jsherman999 Quote
True - but would you rather spend $1500 for Canon 7D, or $2100 for a 5DII? $600 is the price of one mid-level lens.

The gap between say a D3x at $7500 and a K-5 at $1100 describes two different markets, but a high-end aps-c body vs an entry FF body is playing largely in the same market.

This is part of the reason more than a few folks think the "D400" will appear as a low-end FF body. Even if it doesn't, the fact that it's even considered as a feasible possibility now speaks to the aps-c DSLR pinch I always talk about.
Haha yeah, I like the 7D and 5D2 comparison. I actually had that debate with a coworker once when she was about to upgrade, I was trying to convince her to get the 5D2. Her counter-argument was that the 5D2 has fewer fps, is older and the 7D is newer.

Now... I still think she should have gotten the 5D2, but I wonder if that's how the general consumer thinks as well.

I would say for most people that value the FF advantage, that's a no-brainer. Most consumers that are just out shopping with a credit card for an aps-c or m/43 would probably want the "newest" and "bestest" instead though.

But I'm hopeful in the same way that I think the prices seem to be getting more and more feasible.
04-12-2012, 12:06 PM   #700
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QuoteOriginally posted by Fontan Quote
Wow, you are really getting upset over this.
Upset or not, where is the proof? Or at least a hint? Something, anything at all?
Without that, it's not even a speculation.
04-12-2012, 12:11 PM - 1 Like   #701
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
Is it having an effect on car sales?
Yes.



And 2011 looked even better for GM:

QuoteQuote:
...SHANGHAI – General Motors and its joint ventures sold a record 2,547,171 vehicles in China in 2011, an average of one car or truck every 12 seconds in its largest global market. GM’s sales were up 8.3 percent from the previous high of 2,351,610 vehicles sold in 2010.

GM is far from alone - China is Lux Bullish:

QuoteQuote:
BEIJING - Despite cooling in the overall auto market in China, luxury car brands maintained a scorching pace in the first half of this year.
Audi, the luxury brand of Volkswagen Group and the premium car sales champion in China, sold about 140,000 vehicles on the mainland and in Hong Kong between January and June this year, 28 percent growth over a year ago.

Its June sales reached a record-high 27,658 units, enabling China to surpass Germany to become Audi's largest single market worldwide.
The company aims to move 280,000 vehicles in China this year.

BMW, the second-largest luxury carmaker in China, reported a 61 percent surge in mainland sales in the first half to 121,614 vehicles.
The number includes 113,169 BMWs and 8,445 Mini cars.

Mercedes-Benz, another German luxury giant, registered brisk sales as well in the first half. Its China sales jumped 52 percent to 92,200 units.
Volvo, the Swedish premium brand delivered more than 21,000 vehicles in the first half, increasing 36 percent from the same period last year, with China now becoming the brand's third-largest market worldwide.

Increasing wealth

Increasing individual wealth is the most important reason behind the boom, said Zhang Yu, managing director of industry consultancy Automotive Foresight (Shanghai) Co Ltd.

"As long as the economy keeps growing between 7 and 10 percent, the luxury car market will continue to expand in the future," Zhang said.
"The trend (in luxury car market) is similar as other luxury goods like the Louis Vuitton bags."

Bloomberg says:

QuoteQuote:
China may overtake Germany as the world’s second-largest market for luxury cars behind the U.S. this year, fueled by demand for the two brands that are fighting for leadership in the category: BMW and Audi.
...
Waiting List

There is a two-month waiting list for the BMW 5 series long-wheelbase sedan in China, Olaf Kastner, chief executive officer of BMW’s Chinese venture, Brilliance China Automotive Holdings Ltd. (1114), said in a Dec. 1 interview:

“The premium car industry has enjoyed over the past two to three years an amazing growth,” said Kastner. “We still, in the premium segment, will see a higher growth rate than the mass segment” for next year.

(Replace "BMW vs Audi" with "5DIII vs D800" )

The growth market contains all income levels - with a market as large as China, even a small relative percentage of big spenders means a *lot* of new big spenders in absolute numbers, most them probably new to money, and their numbers are expanding.

Last edited by jsherman999; 04-12-2012 at 12:29 PM.
04-12-2012, 12:52 PM   #702
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I'm not sure why people are so hung up on register distance on the K-01. Lenses can poke into the camera, and they will.
04-12-2012, 01:00 PM - 1 Like   #703
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
Upset or not, where is the proof? Or at least a hint? Something, anything at all?
Without that, it's not even a speculation.
Eh, if there is proof, one does not have to speculate.
04-12-2012, 01:51 PM   #704
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You'd need something, to base your assumptions on. Even "proof" can serve this role, e.g. if you know the FF prices are dropping fast, closing to under-$1000 level - you can use that to speculate that high-end APS-C DSLRs will disappear. Also, a "hint" can definitely serve as a basis for speculation. No more 4/3 products, for example - that's a strong hint 4/3 is dead/dying (but you can't say that for sure).
Not having anything at all means your assumptions are based on thin air, and should not be said with any hint of confidence. Definitely not as if they were facts.
My 2 cents.
04-12-2012, 02:53 PM   #705
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
A "hint" can definitely serve as a basis for speculation.
Eh, a bit confused. Sorry. So now just a hint is ok? I don't need proof now?

I kind of baselessly think that APS-C technology is reaching its limit. m4/3 and even smaller sensors probably have more room for improvement although this is a baseless assumption. If the market prefers smaller sized cameras, and m4/3 can improve IQ etc. it is baselessly conceivable to me that APS-C can be led out the door.
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