Originally posted by Fontan At any rate, my point is based on a simple assumption that APS-C DSLR will die off eventually.
Not a chance. Not even close.
APS-C DSLR's have outsold pretty much all SLR's combined in the history of photography, and sales are still increasing. The NEX system is APS-C and is mirrorless and same for our very own K-01.
m43 is hardly a whisper of the same sell-through.
If phonecams become the dominant snapshot camera, then those who want better quality photographs will look at sensor size first, because that is by far the best determinant of superior IQ. APS-C delivers the largest sensor at the lowest relative price by a country mile over anything else on the market.
The history of the camera market has been one of households owning multiple cameras, not one. If most household residents have a celphone camera and the household also has a quality-oriented camera, odds are they'll look at larger sensors to differentiate. If FF comes down in price (as it eventually will) then APS-C will go further down the price ladder and push the smaller m43 into a problem area.
Last week I went into 2 camera retailers and I have to say that the m43 offerings were pretty marginalized in the display arrangement. They did not look like products poised to outsell the far more visible APS-C products.