Originally posted by Class A Why are you now saying that"getting too tied to Nikon" is a hazard? Previously, you argued that Sony must play according to Nikon rules and that selling sensors to Pentax would not be in their interest. I never bought your "Sony is Nikon's slave" story, but I wonder why you are changing your story now.
Yes, previously you said "Nikon forbids Sony to sell sensors to Pentax". Now you are saying "Sensor price is the only problem". In your response to Jay, you do not answer his question. You do not answer why suddenly the (alleged) sensor lock down with Nikon is not a problem anymore.
I never said that Sony "must" play by Nikon's rules. That is not how business procurement works.
Just because you decisively lost an argument in another thread does not mean you should put words into other people's mouths with silly hyperbole like "Sony is Nikon's slave". Get a grip.
Licensing and procurement often requires volume and exclusion constraints. They are very common. When Sony dropped its own FF production (publicly) and Nikon ramped their FF releases up at very high rice points (D3), it was obvious Sony was relying on Nikon to make the market and return Sony Industrial the necessary revenues. Sony cameras was losing money and their sensor division was making it. So much so that Sony even re-purchased from Toshiba a fab they'd only previously rid themselves of 4 years earlier.
Right now any Pentax FF is a rumour, but not Nikon. We know that Nikon gets FF sensors and has input into Sony's foundry operations making them. As FF chugs along, Nikon is in less and less of a position to demand supplier lock-in. One reason may be the persistent rumours that Leica is looking to Sony as well for FF product. Not to mention Sony itself.
The one thing Sony probably wants to avoid is a price war, so it is in Sony;s best interests to control against FF sensors being a commodity. They do that through limited release, queuing, and extra margin, amongst a variety of tactics.
I always said two things and I still say them because their are Commerce 101:
1) It's largely about the sensor price. No one wants a low price FF sensor, certainly not Sony.
2) Pentax has a very small market share and high price cameras have very little unit sales despite all the big talk. So Pentax needs to get the price of FF down to a certain break point and then slowly make their way.
The biggest issue is lenses. Not FF camera bodies. I have consistently maintained Pentax has a FF skunkworks on the go, all the time waiting for the sensor price cost curve to make sense. The D600 and that 24MP sensor may do the trick. Right now we are in rumour phase with some solid Nikon stats. If the Pentax rumour about a 6 month wait until after the Sony A99 is true, then a mid- to late-2013 limited FF run is possible. Maybe. Given the weak demand everywhere in the world economy, I am still more inclined to say 2014 for Pentax.