[illdefined]

And why should the landscape change? This is about diversification not replacement. Besides, the connection made between sensor size and camera type is meaningless; people who want big sensors will want them regardless of what camera type they prefer. Research have shown that mirrorless is bought in addition to DSLR; not as replacements. FF DSLR has been around for a decade and FF sesnor are still as costly as they were three years ago.
BTW The numbers are from 2012.

because there are actual new products on the market this year (and not just updates..)

sorry, $1200+ cameras aren't "companion" cameras. maybe for some, but certainly not the mainstream. also, people buy cameras not sensors. under your theory, people who could afford the $1600 X-Pro in addition to a DSLR, can also well afford the $2100 FF D600. the price of entry for FF used to be $3000, now new 5DmkIIs are selling for $1799 (not even mentioning the growing used FF market...).

I fear your information is old, the OM-D wasn't even available most of 2012 due to incredibly high demand, and please note that the source of your information, Canon itself, isn't resting on APS-C DSLRs either.

[creampuff]

The big difference is that aps-c dSLR and ff dSLR share the same mount.

That's right... when you buy a FF camera you get both a FF and APS-C at the same time. And with new FF cameras at a lower price point, why would an APS-C upgrader want to contend or limit himself with yet another APS-C model? After all, many Canikon lenses do cover a FF image circle, so buying a FF camera (whether new or second hand) offers the opportunity to widen one's photographic options.

Photographers nowadays are pretty smart and savvy... why restrict oneself to one brand? I see no contradiction using for example brand ABC for street shooting and brand XYZ for birding etc. So with more options in sensor size and camera form factors and style, people will use anything to achieve their photographic end results. So if Pentax doesn't have FF, just use another brand that does.

[illdefined]

I find the current "DX month" series by Thom Hogan very interesting reading, especially with regards to the "FF is needed as an upgrade path" claims. It seems that Nikon DX users aren't rushing to "upgrade" to the D600. Link: DX Month, Week 1 at bythom.com

My take on this is that "full-frame" isn't anymore of an upgrade path from APS-C than medium-format was from 135 format in the film days. It's a different format altogether.

I've been reading Thom this week too, while he may be right that DX users aren't upgrading yet (the D600 is barely a month old) even he thinks that's still very much Nikon's plan.

If i were Nikon, I would be way more worried about mirrorless, where enthusiasts who appreciate the reach/size advantage of APS-C now have significantly smaller, high-quality alternatives to SLRs that Nikon has no adequate answer for. at least Canon has a mount and some lenses...

[RBellavance]

If i were Nikon, I would be way more worried about mirrorless, where enthusiasts who appreciate the reach/size advantage of APS-C now have significantly smaller, high-quality alternatives to SLRs that Nikon has no adequate answer for. at least Canon has a mount and some lenses...

I believe you're right, and I think that applies to Pentax as well: mirrorless APS-C would be a better/more important place to put their effort than FF DSLR, IMHO.

[illdefined]

I believe you're right, and I think that applies to Pentax as well: mirrorless APS-C would be a better/more important place to put their effort than FF DSLR, IMHO.

It very much does. Pentax is mostly known for their DSLRs so people here tend to fixate on FF but you're right, Pentax must do something besides just standing still. A GXR-style K-mount mirrorless would be extremely welcome for example, even if it came before FF.

[Laurentiu Cristofor]

Where is the data for this? Theres no FF migration. Nor is there any loss of sales to mirrorless. APS DSLR sales are increasing with no sign of dropping. Canon recently reported record sales, seven million I think, mainly due to the rebels and the 7D; both incidentally even smaller than APS technically.
The digital camera market continue to diversify but the future is particularly bright for smaller sensor cameras.

CIPA starts to report growing mirrorless sales: Digital Photography Review

There's a nifty animation when you move the mouse from one period to another, at the bottom of the graph. I find the market share remarkable for a segment that didn't exist 5 years ago.

There was a time when rangefinders were the main camera technology. And they still are around, but they no longer represent the market. They were replaced by SLRs. Now it's the turn of the SLRs to go away.

[gazonk]

Maybe where you're located people don't buy expensive cameras what with the very high sales tax and all.

Are you kidding? He lives in one of the richest countries of the world.
Just look at what one of the largest retailers put on top of their welcome page....
FotoVideo | Samme pris på nett og butikk

However, the great masses are probably buying their cameras where they buy their TVs and washing machines, and those retailers are now typically running large advertisements for the previous generation of Nikon and Canon APS-C DSLR models...

[Pål Jensen]

There was a time when rangefinders were the main camera technology. And they still are around, but they no longer represent the market. They were replaced by SLRs. Now it's the turn of the SLRs to go away.

The data show that mirrorless is not replacing DSLR's whose sales continue to increase. Mirrorless is replacing P&S cameras thats in decline. As Pentax themselves pointed out recently in an interview mirrorless cameras are typically bough in addition to a DSLR.
The statistics are misleading because a camera group (mirrorless) is included in a segment (DSLR) where they were not present previously. By the same method you could have shown that mobile phone cameras (or anything) are replacing DSLR's.

[Pål Jensen]

I find the current "DX month" series by Thom Hogan very interesting reading, especially with regards to the "FF is needed as an upgrade path" claims. It seems that Nikon DX users aren't rushing to "upgrade" to the D600. Link: DX Month, Week 1 at bythom.com

My take on this is that "full-frame" isn't anymore of an upgrade path from APS-C than medium-format was from 135 format in the film days. It's a different format altogether.

Very much spot on; it is not an upgrade path but a sidestep. However, as the K-mount can accomodate FF is is natural for Pentax to offer such a camera to diversify.
I have to say that the D600 is underwhelming. The B800 doesn't cost that much more, the price difference is just the cost of the kit lens. The D800 makes a lot of sense. I just hope Pentax aims for at least 36mp for their first FF model...

[ElJamoquio]

there is now way in hell Pentax or other brands can hope to claim a stake in the affordable FF segment.

That's an absolute statement.

[cfraz]

I have to say that the D600 is underwhelming. The B800 doesn't cost that much more, the price difference is just the cost of the kit lens.

That must be one amazing kit lens!

(USA pricing (B&H): D600 $2097, D800 $2999).

[Blue]

Very much spot on; it is not an upgrade path but a sidestep. However, as the K-mount can accomodate FF is is natural for Pentax to offer such a camera to diversify.
I have to say that the D600 is underwhelming. The B800 doesn't cost that much more, the price difference is just the cost of the kit lens. The D800 makes a lot of sense. I just hope Pentax aims for at least 36mp for their first FF model...

Here the difference is $900 dollars. If Pentax hypothetically had that price difference on the K-5 II/s and theoretical ff, $1300 + 900 = $2200.

[illdefined]

The data show that mirrorless is not replacing DSLR's whose sales continue to increase. Mirrorless is replacing P&S cameras thats in decline. As Pentax themselves pointed out recently in an interview mirrorless cameras are typically bough in addition to a DSLR.

I have never seen a $1200 P&S (NEX7) or a $1600 (XPRO) "companion" camera.

[mecrox]

Here the difference is $900 dollars. If Pentax hypothetically had that price difference on the K-5 II/s and theoretical ff, $1300 + 900 = $2200.

The difference here between the D800 and the D600 is $608 body-only, adjusted for exchange rates. If you buy a lens for either which is better than the basic kit lens, say a 24-120mm, the difference between the two body+lens is around 15 per cent. So if you can afford one you can afford the other most likely and you don't have to worry much whether you rate the D600 or not. Of course, if you do buy the D800 you will then have to go on buying high-end lenses for it or the results will be iffy (and probably a new computer too) but, wow, one can see how a broad range of cleverly priced cameras enables a company to game buyers up and down the scales effortlessly. Whether those buyers will bite isn't yet clear, of course,

More worrying for makers of high-end APS-C is that since launch here the D600 body-only has come down to 1659 GBP, or $2656. That isn't really above but actually in the price limits of high-end APS-C only 2-3 years ago and we are still in early days. Even if that price turns out to be loss-leading and predatory, and in reality Nikon are losing money on body-only sales (I've no idea), I'd say it is still a worry. If a new Pentax APS-C launches here for anything more than 1000 GBP (the price of the new K5IIs is 949 GBP) then once you start adding body+lens (Pentax lenses here being very highly priced), a buyer who can afford that kind of money would be nuts not to go for FF unless there are other considerations in mind.

An example:

K5IIs + DA*16-50mm = 1748 GBP
D600 + 24-85mm VR = 2079 GBP

That's a difference of about 18 per cent extra to jump not only to a larger format but to an entirely new generation of camera. For Pentax, with nothing in the locker for another year or two years while they are "studying" the market, apparently, such figures must be terrifying. Even if you wind down the quality by going for a vanilla K5II and a more lowly Pentax lens the figures are still pretty chilling, since the IQ gap has just widened for not a lot of saved money.

**Edited: My original comparison mistakenly had the Nikon 16-85mm DX at 30 GPB less. I've changed it above to the FX lens I orginally intended.

[Blue]

The difference here between the D800 and the D600 is $608 body-only, adjusted for exchange rates. If you buy a lens for either which is better than the basic kit lens, say a 24-120mm, the difference between the two body+lens is around 15 per cent. So if you can afford one you can afford the other most likely and you don't have to worry much whether you rate the D600 or not. Of course, if you do buy the D800 you will then have to go on buying high-end lenses for it or the results will be iffy (and probably a new computer too) but, wow, one can see how a broad range of cleverly price cameras enables a company to game buyers up and down the scales effortlessly. Whether those buyers will bite isn't yet clear, of course,

More worryingly for makers of high-end APS-C is that since launch here the D600 body-only has come down to 1659 GBP, or $2656. That isn't really above but actually in the price limits of high-end APS-C only 2-3 years ago and we are still in early days. Even if that price turns out to be loss-leading and predatory, and in reality Nikon are losing money on body-only sales (I've no idea), I'd say it is still a worry. If a new Pentax APS-C launches here for anything more than 1000 GBP then once you start adding body+lens (Pentax lenses here being very highly priced), a buyer who can afford that kind of money would be nuts not to go for FF unless there are other considerations in mind.

An example:

K5IIs + DA*16-50mm = 1748 GBP
D600 + 16-85mm VR = 2049 GBP

That's a difference of about 17 per cent extra to jump not only to a larger format but to an entirely new generation of camera. For Pentax, with nothing in the locker while they are "studying" the market, apparently, such figures must be terrifying. Even if you wind down the quality of Pentax lens the figures are still pretty chilling.

Just for clarification, those were body only prices for the U.S.A. in my example. Nikon seems to have prices fixed across most dealers including BestBuy, BH and Ador.