Originally posted by IchabodCrane And that is the core of the point I was attempting to make. MILCs only compete with non-pro DSLRs because there currently isn't a pro MILC camera made by anyone
The reason there are no pro MILCs is that such cameras are too small to be used adequately with the type of glass favored by pros. Pros (and wealthy advanced amateurs) gravitate toward the FF f2.8 zooms. Wedding photographers often need to use speedlites powerful enough to bounce off ceilings and walls. Those flashes are big and heavy as well, and can only be used comfortably on a larger camera. Professional photographers are often event photographers. They need to be able to shoot quickly under stressful conditions. The last thing they want is to be fiddling with a miniaturized interface, accidentally pressing wrong buttons and missing shots.
For Pros, compact MILCs can never be adequate replacements for DSLRs, for the simple reason that most professional work requires a larger camera. When a pro buys and uses an MILC, it's not to replace his DSLR, but (more likely) to replace his Canon G series compact.
Originally posted by IchabodCrane That's why I didn't agree with your conclusion that MILCs only sell at fire sale prices. If true, then non-pro DSLRs only sell at fire sale prices, too, which I don't think anyone believes.
I don't think anyone's arguing that MILCs only sell at fire sale prices; only that they are more prone to fire sale prices than DSLRs. The Olympus E-PL1 is still selling for $130. The cheapest Olympus P&S that you can buy at Walmart is $139. Olympus, Panasonic, and Sony are bleeding money, at least partly, if not largely, due to their entry level MILCs. And it's these entry level MILCs that inflate MILC numbers in Japanese sales and trigger predictions of the imminent demise of DSLRs. But worldwide, DSLRs, as has been shown in this thread, still dominate. Consider ILC shipments in 2012 (through October):
DSLR shipments Japan: 814k (6%)
DSLR shipments outside Japan: 12.9m (94%)
Mirrorless shipments Japan: 582k (19.1%)
Mirrorless shipments outside Japan: 2.46m (80.9%)
Japan exported 5 times as many DSLRs than MILCs. Does this mean that DSLRs outsold MILCs by a ratio of 5 to 1 outside of Japan? Probably not. The numbers suggest something closer to a 4:1 margin. What accounts for the discrepancy? MILCs shipped in previous years are making up the difference, and those MILCs are precisely the ones likely to be sold at fire sale prices.