[sandilands]

Apple Gear: So Much for a Lack of Demand | The Tech Night Owl ? Cutting-Edge Tech Commentary

You've been reading too many "business analysts" trying to get page hits from shock headlines.

Nope. Just too much experience in business and seeing what happens to rudderless ships.
- hp retiree

[Clavius]

I (and many others apparently) wouldn't touch such a thing with a ten foot pole.

You're not using that pole to touch an FF DSLR right now either.

What I'm saying with that is: If you actually really wanted an FF DSLR you can choose from 21 different old and new models already marketed by 4 different brands. The users that really actually put their money where their mouth is are currently already carrying 5DMKx's, D/6/7/800's, or even older models that are currently pretty cheap on fleabay. So if I were Pentax, I wouldn't bet on the current Pentax users buying an FF DSLR.

A Pentax FF DSLR is not going to attract any users from the other brands. Not many users from their current userbase, for the above reason. And new users are young and are looking forward into the future. Those don't want cameras with one foot in the previous century. Especially not by the time Pentax is able to market their FF camera.

OMG, I just realised that this Pentax FF DSLR could be their Contax N Digital!

[JPT]

They may be further along with development than they are letting on. There are a few reasons they might do this.

For a start, Japanese people tend to understate things, rather than hype them up. That's just their way. Neither Pentax or Ricoh are into teasing and hyping products before they are announced. Also, they probably don't want the competition to know what stage they are at. This would especially be true if they are going the mirrorless route. The rumours are that both Nikon and Sony are working towards mirrorless full frame. Being first to market will be a big deal. Finally, they have their current products to think about. Who would buy a K-5 II or any DA* lenses if they knew full frame was a few months away?

And by the way, I may be wrong about this but I can't hear anything about being at a "presenting" stage in what they say. I can just hear that development is progressing.

[gazonk]

A Pentax FF DSLR is not going to attract any users from the other brands. Not many users from their current userbase, for the above reason. And new users are young and are looking forward into the future. Those don't want cameras with one foot in the previous century. Especially not by the time Pentax is able to market their FF camera.

It will attract new APS-C users because these now tend to think that they have to ask themselves or the clerk in the store whether there exists a full frame upgrade path. It will also attract users from other brands who appreciate K-mount lenses and want a nice workhorse full frame camera to mount them on. The three amigos alone will attract some users. They only need a nice standard zoom and maybe a 24mm and 135mm prime and a compact weather sealed full frame body with "the DNA" of the K-5 and the 645D and they're ready to go. They don't need to introduce full frame mirrorless before anyone wants it.

[Zygonyx]

...So, IMHO the single best bet by Pentax is to release a K-mount mirrorless FF camera with a modular LX-style EVF (several modules, one being a fast high-rez, high contrast oled with high eye point), fast AF developed by 3rd party because Pentax/Ricoh doesn't know how to do it and a recessable (into the mirror box) kit zoom making it an overall small package. If they do that, they can be back by Photokina 2014. But when I see the persons from the interview, I must say they lack the spirit...

Agreed.
But regarding "fast AF" with mirrorless 24x36mm camera (that should be a twin AF), i doubt seriously that any company doest it well, already.

[VaSA]

Some of you guys got nothing else to do? Why not just go out and take some photos? Trust me, it's far better than sitting here 'doing' nothing?

I can't go out and take some photos during my work time. However, I can sit here and do nothing

[monochrome]

They may be further along with development than they are letting on. There are a few reasons they might do this.

Also, they probably don't want the competition to know what stage they are at. This would especially be true if they are going the mirrorless route. The rumours are that both Nikon and Sony are working towards mirrorless full frame. .

Rumors come from component suppliers, who at some point are specifically asked about production capacity and delivery timelines. Nikon and Canon rumors mean they are close. Where are the Pentax rumors coming from? Tokina?

Being first to market will be a big deal. Finally, they have their current products to think about. Who would buy a K-5 II or any DA* lenses if they knew full frame was a few months away?

Who is buying Pentax produxcts now?

And by the way, I may be wrong about this but I can't hear anything about being at a "presenting" stage in what they say. I can just hear that development is progressing.

The engineers are presenting various technologically feasible configurations to the Product and Marketing people, who will closely estimate sales, costs and profit from each (inlcuding a complete marketing plan - lesson learned from years of cheap marketing). Once a decision is made (or several options are deemed feasible) Product, Markleting, Engineering and to a lesser degree, Suppliers will present to Finance.

So far, Finance has not said YES. Perhaps PRICL is getting closer to YES, but they aren't there yet.

It may be a sad truth, but it nevertheless is the real truth. Until Ricoh's Finance Department commits scarce capital to a Pentax Full Frame Camera there won't be a Pentax Full Frame Camera.

[Zygonyx]

The investment community perceives three risks to the Ricoh investment thesis: Yen appreciation; global business retrenchment; and Ricoh deciding to spend a lot of money in the digital camera business in order to rapidly increase sales. Seriously - rapidly growing Pentax is written about as a Risk to the Investment Thesis.

Releasing a FF camera has little to do wtih the camera or the technology. Pentax has not been given permission to invest in marketing and distributing such a camera by the Finance Guys, despite Ricoh's supposedly vast resources.

We have no idea what constitutes "a lot of money," nor whether the Markleting Guys expect a FF camera to be part of a market-share-extending exercise - but - we can surmise the Finance Guys have not yet said YES.

At least, they put it as number 3 risk.
But not any of those goldenboys did any study to assess the causes and impacts of progressively declining sales, due in part to obvious gaps in the product lineup.

This is an aknowledgment imho - if any was needed - that financers are more prone to defend banks than to back businessmen, be them even more than 90 years experienced and longlasting / returnproof ones

[Clavius]

It will attract new APS-C users because these now tend to think that they have to ask themselves or the clerk in the store whether there exists a full frame upgrade path.

No current ones though. The current APS-C Pentaxians knew there was no upgrade path to FF, so they must have deceided that they don't need it.

It will also attract users from other brands who appreciate K-mount lenses and want a nice workhorse full frame camera to mount them on. The three amigos alone will attract some users.

You don't realise how easy those amigos are to operate on, for example, a Canon 5D? I'm not going to switch back to Pentax just so I can have my lens make this terrible ZZZZZZZZZZZP sound. If it would still work because my amigo is an amiga now. It has had the 'treatment' so the mirror won't be hitting the aperture leaver. So Canon users that appreciate Pentax glass can't really use their Pentax glass.

[monochrome]

Zygonyx: They are three coequal risks, but the only one of the three Ricoh can control.

Finance Guys at a corporation are not bankers - they are the antithesis of bankers. They serve to protect the corporation from bankers.

We learned in the thirties that without banks we have no economy and thus no businesses. Unfortunately in the nineties and aughts we forgot that banks are businesses, too (nothing more, nothing less, neither evil nor good), and if permitted they will take business risks, and succeed or fail.

Banks are bridge businesses like airlines and utilities. They should be private but they also should be striongly supervised and regulated.

We forgot that. Over the prior 20 years we removed many sensible limits we had placed on banks in recognition of their special place in the structure of Western economies.

The fault actually lies with our governments and our regulators more than with our banks. Our banks merely did what they were permitted to do - with the expected (by rational observers) consequences.

Had I John Law, the Mississippi Co., the Banque Royalle and Robespierre in my economic and civic history books I might feel a bit differently, though.

[Kunzite]

You're not using that pole to touch an FF DSLR right now either.

What I'm saying with that is: If you actually really wanted an FF DSLR you can choose from 21 different old and new models already marketed by 4 different brands. The users that really actually put their money where their mouth is are currently already carrying 5DMKx's, D/6/7/800's, or even older models that are currently pretty cheap on fleabay. So if I were Pentax, I wouldn't bet on the current Pentax users buying an FF DSLR.

However, I do not really want an FF DSLR; I would most likely buy a Pentax one, for no other reason than the better optical viewfinder - but that's not enough to make me jump ship. Nevertheless, the D800e is a very nice camera, I touched it and liked it a lot.

No current ones though. The current APS-C Pentaxians knew there was no upgrade path to FF, so they must have deceided that they don't need it.

You are wrong. Regardless of their initial plans/hopes, many Pentaxians are reaching/will reach a moment when they will desire higher end equipment (and are ready to pay big $$$$ on it). So far such people had no choice than to go Canikon.
In a certain poll, the idea of a FF DSLR was very popular; why, if we supposedly decided we don't need it?

[gazonk]

No current ones though. The current APS-C Pentaxians knew there was no upgrade path to FF, so they must have deceided that they don't need it.

They may have thought so when they bought into the system but may gradually (have) change(d) their mind. It's just very recently that the FF market is starting to look a little more affordable (for instance, with the advent of the surprisingly good variable-aperture Nikon kit zoom). And the original 5d wasn't everyone's taste, it was a plasticky camera - in many ways like a Rebel on steroids. And the D700 with its low resolution also (I think) didn't awake everyone's lust for the larger format.

So Canon users that appreciate Pentax glass can't really use their Pentax glass.

Those who are willing to molest their amigos, are not true aficionados!

[awo425]

Funny....Do you really believe in what you say....? What do you mean?
You can turn 21 MP FF camera's resolution to 10 MP APS-C only by cropping?

The resolution of 21 MP FF camera in the center won't be different after cropping. You just cut the borders, man...

Thank you sir, I am well aware of this.

So if I hypothetically glue a FF censor out of two K5 16MP sensors, and stick it into hypothetical magical Pentax K1 FF camera and make it all work.
Will FA31Limited lens be resolving in the center of this hypothetical censor much differently then in the center of regular K5 APS-C censor?

[Clavius]

However, I do not really want an FF DSLR;

In a certain poll, the idea of a FF DSLR was very popular; why, if we supposedly decided we don't need it?

You ask a question that you answered yourself seconds ago. You do not really want an FF DSLR, but you promote Pentax to build one anyway. How many of those poll voters voted for FF DSLR despite the fact they not even interested?

[Kunzite]

You cut the part in which I said I would buy a Pentax one; was that intentional?