[jsherman999]

The benefits of doing so, but also the potential dangers associated with not doing so.

Broken record warning, but: if the lower-end of your lens sales are being eaten by mirrorless, and the upper-end is being encroached by low-cost FF, you're left with the middle, and that may not be enough to sustain K-mount 5 or 10 years from now. They may need to move to FF if they want to keep K-mount viable.

.

Pentax is unequivocally committed to the three current mounts. A Full Frame Pentax is real but not soon. In five years Pentax will be the third major camera brand globally, but not by convincing us, and not sooner.

You may quote me..

OK, I just did

"Third major camera company in five years" only if 1) Samsung and Sony aren't really interested in that position, and 2) Pentax-Ricoh has a FF body and refreshed lens roadmap by then. Otherwise, no. At least not while retaining K-mount.

You can quote me.

.

---

Last edited by jsherman999; 05-11-2013 at 10:27 AM.

[Kerrowdown]

Why there might NOT be a FF

I wish to have this thread removed by a Mod immediately.

Don't give Pentax any opportunities to duck my FF requirements.

[monochrome]

OK, I just did

"Third major camera company in five years" only if 1) Samsung and Sony aren't really interested in that position, and 2) Pentax-Ricoh has a FF body and refreshed lens roadmap by then. Otherwise, no. At least not while retaining K-mount.

You can quote me.

.

"but not by convincing us" is the operative clause in my statement.

[RussV]

Judging by the UK I don't think Pentax will be third biggest. Some dealers don't stock Pentax at all. But I have to say it's picked up a bit in the past few years. There was a time not so long ago, when the biggest photographic chain (Jessops) didn't stock Pentax at all.

Is FF realley essential?, beyond the fact we want to get more mileage from our old lenses.

[monochrome]

Judging by the UK I don't think Pentax will be third biggest. Some dealers don't stock Pentax at all. But I have to say it's picked up a bit in the past few years. There was a time not so long ago, when the biggest photographic chain (Jessops) didn't stock Pentax at all.

Is FF realley essential?, beyond the fact we want to get more mileage from our old lenses.

A lot can happen in the intermediate term. I'll bet they acquire market share.

[RobA_Oz]

A lot can happen in the intermediate term. I'll bet they acquire market share.

Given that the usual way of buying market share is to acquire an existing player, who do you think likely that they'd take over? Or did you mean by pricing strategy, to sacrifice short-term profit for increased sales, and thereby establish future profits?

[bossa]

Your comments are interesting in terms of trading the D800 for a 645D II. The 645D really does not support high ISO as we know it in the sense of a K5 sensor. Its a CCD sensor. So, that brings me to wonder if Pentax is thinking of using a CCD based sensor with a lower resolution for the rumored FF (than the current 645D). They have indicated in the past that they are going to do something unique with their potential offering. I did read some items posted by the foundry that is producing the current 40MP CCD for the 645D that they were working on a follow on that Pentax was going to use. I just assumed that it would be a replacement for the 645D sensor in a potential 645D II. Now I am wondering if they would use a scaled down similar CCD for a FF. That would potentially provide for some interesting possibilities.

I rarely go over ISO 1600 (90% of the time its on 80) on my K5. A CCD with extraordinary good color, very low noise, extremely low ISO of say 25, exceptional dynamic range with a resolution of 16MP+, would I think would get me possibly thinking about the full frame. Couple that with some shift technology that enables stacking that would produce 4x the resolution, and then I would become very interested. I have a number of old glass lenses that should be up to the rigors of FF (Limiteds, Taks, Zeiss, Contax and Leica). If not, I am still really pleased with my K5, and the price is coming down on the K5IIs.

Perhaps the 645D II will be a *compact* mirrorless camera and come with an optional 35mm lens adapter? Crop mode on a *smaller* 645D MkII would be FF 35mm mode and the actual camera may not be any bigger than a D800.. thoughts ??

PS: I guess what I am suggesting is that a 645D MkII could be a modular camera at best where you can use an adapter for FF lenses and operate the camera in FF crop mode... there's always the possibility of using interchangeable sensor backs too I suppose.

[RyanW]

So, that brings me to wonder if Pentax is thinking of using a CCD based sensor with a lower resolution for the rumored FF

That would be wonderful. I can hear the video folks howling already though.

[monochrome]

Given that the usual way of buying market share is to acquire an existing player, who do you think likely that they'd take over? Or did you mean by pricing strategy, to sacrifice short-term profit for increased sales, and thereby establish future profits?

Sigma comes to mind. It is a family-owned business and the founder-patriarch passed away last winter. Wouldn't that be interesting? Perhaps Olympus if the financial condition is ever truly figured out. Maybe Sony throws in the towel - they're bleeding money. There's more than one way to get the mirrorless mount everyone seems to think K-mount isn't.

I rather suspect they will acquire share by "investing" capital into Pentax beyond product development, and by reinvesting increased cash flow as Pentax grows. That won't start until 2014.

If a logical acquisition presents itself at the right price Ricoh may be willing to make that acquisition as well.

[rawr]

If a logical acquisition presents itself at the right price Ricoh may be willing to make that acquisition as well.

They only paid about $150 million or less for Pentax, if I remember correctly.
When dot-coms only 2 years old and with no income can go for $1 billion, Ricoh got a bargain, for a globally recognisable brand with a portfolio of patents, good engineers, factories around the world, existing cash flows, a similar culture etc etc. It will be hard for Ricoh management to find another deal like that again. So I could understand why they may find it prudent to simply invest more in developing their existing good-value assets, rather than pursue growth through new acquisitions. Although Ricoh buying Sigma would be rather cool, I must admit

[Tonto]

Perhaps the 645D II will be a *compact* mirrorless camera and come with an optional 35mm lens adapter? Crop mode on a *smaller* 645D MkII would be FF 35mm mode and the actual camera may not be any bigger than a D800.. thoughts ??

PS: I guess what I am suggesting is that a 645D MkII could be a modular camera at best where you can use an adapter for FF lenses and operate the camera in FF crop mode... there's always the possibility of using interchangeable sensor backs too I suppose.

How much would people pay for such a camera over a D800? MF buyers would go nuts I believe but FF buyers???

[bossa]

If they merged the MF and FF systems into one modular system I believe they would *clean up*.

[RobA_Oz]

Sigma comes to mind. It is a family-owned business and the founder-patriarch passed away last winter. Wouldn't that be interesting? Perhaps Olympus if the financial condition is ever truly figured out. Maybe Sony throws in the towel - they're bleeding money. There's more than one way to get the mirrorless mount everyone seems to think K-mount isn't.

I rather suspect they will acquire share by "investing" capital into Pentax beyond product development, and by reinvesting increased cash flow as Pentax grows. That won't start until 2014.

If a logical acquisition presents itself at the right price Ricoh may be willing to make that acquisition as well.

Acquiring Sigma would be interesting, but in the sense of a challenge because of the proportion of their product that supports camera brands other than Pentax. Sony's camera division would be more of a fit, I think, because it would hold out the prospect of acquiring dedicated video product, and MFT systems as well as the possibility of preferred access to CZ lenses. I'm not sure how Olympus's product line would fit with Pentax.

On the other hand, if one thinks about investment opportunities, Pentax could do well to get back into the medical optics area, although I dare say the terms of Ricoh's acquisition block them from that for a while yet, perhaps even under the Ricoh name. There are, of course, other high-end, esoteric photographic markets that might be challenged on price, just as Pentax has done to Hasselblad and Mamiya with the 645D. Although those are low-volume, they are also high-margin and can bring prestige that may attract customers to the lower-priced products, and eventual technology transfers down to those products.

[philbaum]

All well and good, but a full frame camera is going to run 2500 minimum for it to be worth Pentax's while. And the full frame zooms will 1500 to 2000 dollars as well. Not cheap. I think I would buy in, but I wonder how many others really would put their money where their mouth is...

I think Sony will be coming out with their Nex FF camera for about the same $2500. If there's an e-mount adapter that will take full advantage of Pentax FF lenses, as well as other mfr mounts. then that might be a tempting way for some Pentaxians to use their prized FF lenses. (However, the Sony Nex FF might never appear and even if it does, might be too compromised in some way)

Broken record warning, but: if the lower-end of your lens sales are being eaten by mirrorless, and the upper-end is being encroached by low-cost FF, you're left with the middle, and that may not be enough to sustain K-mount 5 or 10 years from now. They may need to move to FF if they want to keep K-mount viable.
.

The other joker card out there - what if progress continues to be made in making APs sensors more efficient, increasing their dynamic range - etc., then FF usage might shrink. A tough decision for Pentax. More than likely, they will eventually have to make a FF.

[Kunzite]

I don't see how acquiring any of the big players would help Pentax Ricoh become a dominant player or whatever's their goal. Buying Sigma means Ricoh will own a 3rd-party lens maker. Buying Olympus means they'll have another, competing system. Buying Sony, well, I'd like to see them try that. Such acquisitions would be IMO unnecessary, and not easily accepted by the shareholders.