Originally posted by Schraubstock Not necessarily, this is not how manufacturing works. To make something, say, 10 % bigger does not always mean the price of this item will automatically be 10% more expensive.
You must be sitting on a lot of boards to have all this intimate knowledge and if you do I am surprised you are at liberty to divulge this info.
Greetings
It is how sensor manufacturing works. FF is 2.45 larger in physical area so the yield per photolithographic session is that much lower.
Worse, the defect rate also scales to that dynamic leading to a higher % of loss. So a 10% loss on the wafer translates to a 15% loss of the APS-C sized chips but a whopping 40% of the FF.
There isn't 1:1 a linear relationship. The curve gets worse for each step of larger sensor. That's why medium format digital cameras are so expensive.
The only way to combat this is to make it up in volume and larger photolithographers forl larger wafers (non-stiitched). Those fabs are very expensive, as in a hundred million of $'s for the full white room and everything.
FF runs smack into other holdbacks adding cost: battery power, processing power, buffers and pipes, file size (assuming FF pixel density will stay relative to smaller sensors), and a generally larger size, and for DSLR's, a larger prism and banging mirror. This at a time when the size of cameras is an issue and mirrorless adds pressure.
The market separation between APS-C and FF is driving APS-C down to commodity volumes and FF is tracking behind. Where the 'floor' is we're not sure, but APS-C looks to be IMO about $45 per sensor after 24 months on the market and FF about 6x that only for the sensor and its wired support. Because an FF body is only about 15% more mass than APS-C the non-sensor cost differences are not as dramatic as the sensor cost differences in total camera price.
If the APS-C 'floor' for a DSLR camera body is say US$650 on initial offering (what it seems to have stabilized at recently), it is suspected that FF will be about 2x that when all is said and done. The FF market shrinks when the form factor and lens sizes kick in to the total cost of ownership. File size and networking will also be issues against 'big'. There is some advantage to a smaller sensor camera being cheaper and easier to nail volume. 15% on distribution costs like shipping adds up.
The problem most people here have is not understanding that household disposable income drives camera sales. Cameras over $1,000 are actually quite a rare purchase in the greater scheme of things. If APS-C can lodge in profitably well below US$1,000 per unit there's a long term future of this format being the most cost-effective for the mass market. But if you are Pentax, even all that volume may not be enough margin, so they still need to be at higher price points to stay relevant and give their user base an upgrade path. That mans Pentax has no choice but to supply FF soon.