Originally posted by johnmflores People have been predicting the demise of APS-C for years, yet here they still are taking the lion's share of the market year after year.
Mmmm....
I don't think anyone is predicting the end of APS-C, just that it moved down the price ladder. A $45 sensor as the engine in a $1500 camera is not sustainable. These wholesale replacement scenarios are not really based on sound economics.
What is happening is that APS-C in a flagship DSLR form is under price pressure. Interestingly it is under less pressure from below than from FF above because at $45/sensor unit and that fact DSLR is a mature tech. The price impacts of the mirrorless m4/3 and 1" have been negligible. APS-C DSLR's can get quite inexpensive and compete vey well. It's the top-end that is in trouble in large part because the top-end is what drives the lucrative after-market sale of lenses and accessories the most. As APS-C up high margin way gives way to FF (and maybe even medium format of the Canon and Nikon rumours are true) then that creates issues for Pentax.
They could pull an Olympus and try and out out an APS-C EM-1 type body. It is doubtful that smaller sensors can sustain the revenues very long a the price curve drops against them. Non-sensor features do not appear to be a way to keep customers paying more. This is a major difference from the film era.
The entire dedicated camera market is now stalled or shrinking in sales, not in consumer usage. The market is now entering a phase of more replacement product that new customers, and they are replacing at a slower pace than before, probably going back to historical norms (about 8 year replacement cycles for flagships).
The upshot of all this is the excellent price/performance ratio for APS-C will benefit value customers. What do you bet the next GR will have superior features and a lower price tag?