Originally posted by Aristophanes My point.
Viable because the pros buy them.
Fair enough, if that's what you meant by 'viable' and not 'we need the pro-buying volume'... because we don't. So many people still assume that's necessary.
Quote: How do you make the pro association a lessened factor?
I think that you think that 'pro association' factor is more valuable than it actually is - I said 'a component' of the enthusiast market is affected by it, not the entire market.., but let's assume that it does hold some value.
Quote: Price.
And since Pentax does not control a lot of the input prices for their camera bodies, especially the sensor, they are limited in their ability to be profitable at a sub-$2,000 price point.
I think it makes more sense to start at $2500 - $3500 (with new lenses) at first. The main thing is to prepare for the eventuality of DSLR (read: K-mount) becoming the domain of larger sensors, and for Pentax to be positioned for that they have to start building their lens lineup now and offer a D800-like body very soon to establish some mindshare and market share. They need to
skate to where the puck will be, as Wayne Gretsky would say.
Quote: .
The market is simply not there. And the 2 local news facilities who do subsidize here with their fleet of reportage FF cameras will never take their $$$'s to Pentax either, unless Pentax big glass suddenly appears equivalent to Canikon. That's $30k per year in sales times 3,000 small markets like that worldwide shut to Pentax.
Think about your arithmetic for a second
The Chicago Sun-times, second largest paper in the Chicago area, which is one of the top three markets in the US, just laid off it's entire photography staff - and that amounted to 28 people. Say there's another 30 at the Tribune, and then it drops off precipitously as the circulation gets smaller, so maybe there are 100 total employer-subsidized PJ's in the Chicago area. Multiply that by the top 15 markets (and there are going to be less employed at the papers in the lower half of that 15, but...) and we have around 1500 PJ's in the top 15 markets in the US. Let's be generous and estimate 25 staff PJs on average in the next 30 markets, and we have another 750 employer-subsidized journalists. That's maybe 2300 PJs in the top 45 media markets in the US.
So if we estimate that Canon gets half and Nikon the other half (it's probably more like 70-30, but..) and the papers buy a new FF camera for an individual PJ on average once every three years, we have Nikon for example selling 1150 / 3 = 385 cameras per year to the PJs that make up the top 45 markets in the US.
If the entire PJ industry in the top 45 markets in the US went away tomorrow, It just wouldn't matter that much to Nikon/Canon's bottom line. Pentax wouldn't even need to care about stuff like that.
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Quote: Institutional purchasing of cameras is declining, but it's still there and it is some pretty big $$'s which funds a pretty pervasive marketing machine,.
One buyer I wonder about - the US Government. I'm thinking of Mike Johnston's story of going to a Gov't surplus sale in college and finding a crate of 16 unopened & boxed Leica's and lenses. I think he could have bought the crate for $300, but had to go scrape up the cash and missed out on a huge windfall when someone else bought them... The government doesn't care about price and can buy in wasteful volumes, a vendor's best friend!
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