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08-20-2013, 07:28 AM   #61
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
The Pentax AF system cannot compete at the $2,000 price point much less the $3,000 one.
You omitted the $2000 FF Canon 6D, with it's rather ordinary 11 point AF, that is pretty much matched already by the K-5. Yet the 6D is selling like hot-cakes.

08-20-2013, 08:23 AM   #62
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QuoteOriginally posted by rawr Quote
You omitted the $2000 FF Canon 6D, with it's rather ordinary 11 point AF, that is pretty much matched already by the K-5. Yet the 6D is selling like hot-cakes.
That makes my point. Pentax doesn't have a D800/$3,000 AF system.

Therefore unless Pentax is willing to sink even more cost into developing such a system they will build upon what they can achieve using existing tech and incremental advances.

And factor in that many people here clamour for a "small" FF from Pentax. But advanced AF arrays with tracking and visual overlays eat up form factor space. If you want 50+ cross-points and edge- to-edge focusing capabilities, be prepared for a bigger DSLR.
08-20-2013, 09:22 AM   #63
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
That makes my point. Pentax doesn't have a D800/$3,000 AF system.

Therefore unless Pentax is willing to sink even more cost into developing such a system they will build upon what they can achieve using existing tech and incremental advances.

And factor in that many people here clamour for a "small" FF from Pentax. But advanced AF arrays with tracking and visual overlays eat up form factor space. If you want 50+ cross-points and edge- to-edge focusing capabilities, be prepared for a bigger DSLR.

I do not believe Pentax can at this point or needs to compete with the D800 or 5DMKIII but I do not believe they have to shoot for the bottom either. There is no reason Pentax can not produce a FF that is in between the D800/5DMKIII and the D600/6D. Using used prices of the other brand FF cameras is not IMHO a way to judge what needs to be the price range of new release from Pentax as you have stated many times in past post. I believe that if Pentax releases a FF that out preforms the D600/6D with K-5 level features and slight improvement in AF for less than $2500 it would sell that would put it a few hundred below D800 and a few over the D600. And when it comes to size any smaller than the K-5 would be too small for me and I do not have large hands to me my K-5 with a 70-200 on it is not comfortable without my grip.
08-20-2013, 10:15 AM   #64
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Problem for Pentax is they likely will only have access to the same sensor as the D600. Sony.

Irony: same for Sony.

It's very difficult given that dynamic to price above what Nikon offers, especially when you have less lenses on the roadmap or in the stores. This is Sony's dilemma as well.

Does Ricoh have the funds to source another 24MP+ FF sensor NOT from Sony? Likely not. Aptina makes noise but so far is vapourware and Toshiba has been Nikon's alternative foundry relying heavily on Nikon designs.

This is a me-too industry and a highly me-too segment. If Pentax prices above Nikon or Canon, what's exactly is the upsell justifying the premium? Why would a consumer not just buy a D600/6D to access the superior lens availability, not to mention flash, used market, older backup D700, etc?

08-20-2013, 10:17 AM - 1 Like   #65
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QuoteOriginally posted by hidden_au Quote
I agree that I dont thino Pentax would try to compete head to head with the big guys in the pro or semi pro marlet.
Ricoh has stated that they plan to do exactly that. I believe the specifically mentioned Nikon as who they are going to compete directly with.

QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
You need a stable of 7 zooms and 8 primes to play there to sell even 5% of the bodies Canikon does.
Not really. Wedding photography makes up a huge percentage of professional photographers. You really only need 3-4 primes and maybe 3 zooms to meet the needs the largest group of professional photographers. The 24-70 and 70-200 are by far the most sold full-frame zooms. With Sigma filling the holes in the lens line-up Pentax has time to develop their own professional grade lenses.

QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
You don't enter a high-end market without all your competitor has to offer.
Call Fuji. Tell them they screwed up by rolling out a premium camera with only 3 lenses and no real support. Or maybe we should call Apple and tell them that there is no way the iPhone can compete against a giant like RIM.

QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
Pentax hasn't the AF system nor tethering, nor strobist, nor RAW processing, and far too few long and wide zooms to compete against the D800 equivalents.
And you talk as though Pentax never will. We don't know what AF the next camera will have. We don't know what flash system the next camera will have. We don't know what JPEG engine the next camera will have. There is a huge improvement in the AF from the K-7 to the K-5II. Canon's 5DII AF is not much better than the K-5II.
08-20-2013, 10:28 AM   #66
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
Toshiba has been Nikon's alternative foundry relying heavily on Nikon designs.
Care to provide some proof of this?
08-20-2013, 10:35 AM   #67
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
You don't enter a high-end market without all your competitor has to offer.
Wrong, you enter a market without all your well-established competitors have to offer; just because trying to do otherwise is an impossible task. How could Pentax start with 3 cameras (including a pro monster), 61 lenses, TCs and accessories, full pro support and pro presence everywhere, and a developed second hand market? Obviously, they'll have less than that; way less.
And there are many examples of companies which started with less than everything at once.

Surpassing a D600-level camera (which are built to a budget) should not be difficult for Pentax, as they're already competing at that level in the APS-C arena. I'm not talking about going head to head with the upper level D800 (and definitely not with the D4), but they can do better than D600. There is a lot of "middle ground" between the 2 Nikons, a thing often ignored.

You are mistaken if you think Pentax can simply undercut others. That can make it unprofitable, as Canon and Nikon with their much higher volumes (and technology to reuse) are more able to play this game. Pentax' only chance would be to cut corners, which would put them at a disadvantage - having brand new cameras which can hardly compete with second hand Canikons.

QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
Problem for Pentax is they likely will only have access to the same sensor as the D600. Sony.
Pure speculation. Pentax could use a sensor not yet available on the market, who knows?
Anyway, even the D4 has "only" 16MP... so megapixels aren't everything.
08-20-2013, 11:25 AM   #68
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QuoteOriginally posted by Winder Quote
Wedding photography makes up a huge percentage of professional photographers.
And that's 1% of all DSLR sales.

Professional photography is a tiny part of the whole market.

The US$ average earnings for the occupation of "photographer" is $14,000 per year.

The market is made up of soccer Moms and Dads.

QuoteOriginally posted by Winder Quote
Call Fuji. Tell them they screwed up by rolling out a premium camera with only 3 lenses and no real support. Or maybe we should call Apple and tell them that there is no way the iPhone can compete against a giant like RIM.
Fuji is bleeding money from its camera division. Their sales are not actually all that good, even in core market Japan. Their market share has hardly budged.

QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
Wrong, you enter a market without all your well-established competitors have to offer; just because trying to do otherwise is an impossible task.
You're buying a system, not a body. these aren't like cars where you can make a light truck and then make a sedan, then an SUV in following years.

Relying on Sigma or eBay $30 glass is how you kill future sales and water down the brand. Not an option. Suicide.

Pentax is an optical company. It makes money off of optics, not camera bodies. After-market lens and accessory sales are the beating heart of the industry. The entire purpose behind proprietary mounts is to get people buying your sand and not the other guys'.

QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
You are mistaken if you think Pentax can simply undercut others. That can make it unprofitable, as Canon and Nikon with their much higher volumes (and technology to reuse) are more able to play this game. Pentax' only chance would be to cut corners, which would put them at a disadvantage - having brand new cameras which can hardly compete with second hand Canikons.
But that's exactly how Pentax has survived in APS-C.

If you cannot compete on accessories and glass, you compete on price.

There are 3 areas where Pentax has differentiated:

1) Small APS-C primes in the DA Ltd's. Smart move. Pair with small APS-C bodies and you have a long-term APS-C founadtion.

2) Many colours.

3) WR.

Almost everything else from TAv to the Green Button to ergonomics are all subjective and not unique to Pentax given other methodologies available from the competition. In other ways the competition beats the pants off Pentax (video).

We do know that Pentax has:

1) Weak AF, with poor tracking and prediction and few cross-points and overlays. This is difficult to overcome given patents, cost, and the fact that Pentax is known for smaller form factor; part of its DNA.

2) Substantially smaller lens selection going up against 50+ FF lenses each from Canon and Nikon. This is killing Sony as well.

3) Lousy flash, tethering, lens support, etc. either internally supplied or via third parties. The whole lack of connectivity is restricting DSLR sales in general. Large file size FF is a barrier here.

DSLR's are a volume market. They are now an offshoot of consumer electronics in general.

So a D600 equivalent using the same sensor (likely) with WR and in pretty colours is going to justify a $500 premium?

Good luck with that.

How about a $1649 FF with one SD slot, WR, no top-LCD, articulating rear LCD, slightly updated SAFOX, wi-fi/USB/HDMI, all in a package about the size of the K-5 (larger prism)? Use the same 24MP Sony sensor on a second batch run at commodity prices (Sony will love you for amortizing their fab).

That's how Pentax gets some traction...if they can get the lenses right. At that price point they can do away with pro-level glass a $800 more expensive body would demand.

And lower priced glass takes away a lot of pressure from the used and legacy markets.

08-20-2013, 11:48 AM   #69
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
How about a $1649 FF with one SD slot, WR, no top-LCD, articulating rear LCD, slightly updated SAFOX, wi-fi/USB/HDMI, all in a package about the size of the K-5 (larger prism)? Use the same 24MP Sony sensor on a second batch run at commodity prices (Sony will love you for amortizing their fab).

That's how Pentax gets some traction...if they can get the lenses right. At that price point they can do away with pro-level glass a $800 more expensive body would demand..
That might sound good, until canikon release a better specified FF for $1249 two weeks later. Pentax has very little to win on dumping price on FF. It might be the last thing they do.

Pentax already struggle with pricing on APS-C, so they try to offer more camera for the money on entry level APS-C segment, instead of lowest possible price. It will be even harder for Pentax to keep up on price in FF.

Last edited by Fogel70; 08-20-2013 at 11:58 AM.
08-20-2013, 11:55 AM   #70
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The gap you drive through if you are Pentax is that gap between the D7100 at US$1196 per body and the D600 at US$1996 per body:

Nikon D7100 DSLR Camera (Body Only)1513 B&H Photo Video

Nikon D600 DSLR Camera (Body Only)25488 B&H Photo Video

That's $800 worth of market spread ripe for picking and perfect for a system launch with limited lens selection. Goodwill from that value statement buys a lot of future.

The $800 between the D800 (and Sony A99) and D600 is a much harder niche to fill going up against both pro and consumer grade glass, strobe systems, macro, VR/IS, etc.

This way you get your K-5 crowd to re-purchase Pentax rather than alienating them with a price jump most cannot afford.

You also kill the Nikon D400 vapourcamera.
08-20-2013, 12:00 PM   #71
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QuoteOriginally posted by Fogel70 Quote
That might sound good, until canikon release a better specified FF for $1249 two weeks later. Pentax has very little to win on dumping price on FF. It might be the last thing they do.

Pentax already struggle to with pricing on APS-C, so they try to offer more camera for the money on entry level APS-C segment, instead of lowest possible price. It will be even harder for Pentax to keep up on price in FF.
They have everything to win.

Sony would lose under that scenario as the barrier is the sensor price and there is no indication Sony is turning that into a commodity. It's up to Sony's customers to trim features relevant to price points.

All I am saying is Pentax hasn't got the system, starting with lenses, to play in the pro leagues. Rather than over-invest in a system where the other players dominate, invest in value and earn consumer loyalty. Can Pentax match the Speedlight offerings? No. so don't make a body isolated in that stratosphere.

Worked for Hyundai and Kia against Toyota and Nissan. Now they are tops in loyalty.
08-20-2013, 12:14 PM   #72
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
But that's exactly how Pentax has survived in APS-C.

If you cannot compete on accessories and glass, you compete on price.
Are you talking about their failed (and abandoned) attempt to compete on price? They weren't able to gain market share that way, and I doubt they could do it now.
Compete on price and nobody would ever want to pay for your products, what they're worth. Pentax is still fighting with this, as we can see in this very thread.
Fogel is right, Pentax can only lose at this game because the others are better suited to play it; but it's not only that, it's much less effective than you think.

QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
So a D600 equivalent using the same sensor (likely) with WR and in pretty colours is going to justify a $500 premium?
Bad attempt at ridiculing an idea which isn't yours. Is "pretty colors" everything you've got?

QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
How about a $1649 FF with one SD slot, WR, no top-LCD, articulating rear LCD, slightly updated SAFOX, wi-fi/USB/HDMI, all in a package about the size of the K-5 (larger prism)? Use the same 24MP Sony sensor on a second batch run at commodity prices (Sony will love you for amortizing their fab).
In other words, a Pentax camera should be over 20% cheaper than the competition in order for you to consider thinking about it (but, would you buy it?). In your opinion, the answer is a camera designed to be obsolete from day 1.
08-20-2013, 12:32 PM   #73
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
All I am saying is Pentax hasn't got the system, starting with lenses, to play in the pro leagues. Rather than over-invest in a system where the other players dominate, invest in value and earn consumer loyalty. Can Pentax match the Speedlight offerings? No. so don't make a body isolated in that stratosphere.

Worked for Hyundai and Kia against Toyota and Nissan. Now they are tops in loyalty.
And today it's Canon and Nikon tthat has the role of Hyundai and Kia in the FF world.

As long as Pentax does not have a full system, not many outside Pentax existing user base will consider Pentax FF DSLR, no matter how low the price is. They will feel much more secure in their investment even if they have to pay 50% more for a canikon camera. This price difference will not make all that big difference in the end as it will be lenses that require most investment.

Last edited by Fogel70; 08-20-2013 at 12:48 PM.
08-20-2013, 12:43 PM   #74
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I agree; going cheap won't attract many non-Pentax users, but it could upset Pentax users wanting a higher-end non-pro camera.

Of course, we're all speculating about a project we don't know much about; however, I believe we shouldn't look in the past (i.e. K-5 family) for clues. Isn't there a rumor about an upcoming higher-end APS-C camera? A new platform which could be shared between 3 formats - APS-C, 135 and 645.
08-20-2013, 01:22 PM   #75
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QuoteOriginally posted by Winder Quote
Ricoh has stated that they plan to do exactly that. I believe the specifically mentioned Nikon as who they are going to compete directly with.



Not really. Wedding photography makes up a huge percentage of professional photographers. You really only need 3-4 primes and maybe 3 zooms to meet the needs the largest group of professional photographers. The 24-70 and 70-200 are by far the most sold full-frame zooms. With Sigma filling the holes in the lens line-up Pentax has time to develop their own professional grade lenses.


Call Fuji. Tell them they screwed up by rolling out a premium camera with only 3 lenses and no real support. Or maybe we should call Apple and tell them that there is no way the iPhone can compete against a giant like RIM.



And you talk as though Pentax never will. We don't know what AF the next camera will have. We don't know what flash system the next camera will have. We don't know what JPEG engine the next camera will have. There is a huge improvement in the AF from the K-7 to the K-5II. Canon's 5DII AF is not much better than the K-5II.
It's refreshing to see a post with realistic optimism. Much like my own thinking.

Buy that man a beer!
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