Originally posted by Fogel70 So basically what you're saying is that before Pentax can enter FF market, they need to be where canikon are after many years in this segment?
Pentax needs to compete on price
erformance which is a Nikon soft spot. Canon less so.
To get there, Pentax needs to update its strobes and tethering. And rework SAFOX. The Pentax AF system cannot compete at the $2,000 price point much less the $3,000 one. I doubt they can make the leap to D800/D4 AF quality, but they can get to D600/7000 on a stock Sony sensor in a relatively compact form factor. AF takes up space as do the visual overlays.
There are also issues with SR and long glass. Does Pentax FF require in-lens stabilization? how SDM or DC lens motors? Video? That's what sells a lot of Canon bodies.
The killer problem is lenses and these related matters. Pentax FF will require 14mm to 500mm (560?). It will require a TC. Zooms are the major issue because primes are mostly recycled formulas. Zooms today need much faster focusing and flare/CA control than in the days of film, so recycling complex zooms is not likely an option. Look at the Canikon efforts and you see that's where the bulk of their decade long effort went.
Unless Ricoh is prepared to bleed money like Sony (which shut down its A850/900 line for almost a year) to establish a foothold and work into the market, it's not feasible at today's FF sensor costs to jump in at the D800/$3,000 level for price. That's an astronomical amount for a body when Pentax could only put out 15% of the lenses the other guys put out. Even diehard Pentaxians will buy a Nikon just for the lens and strobe availability. And lens profiles in LR, etc.
If Sony, Aptina, Toshiba are able to undercut current FF sensor prices Pentax can get in at the sub-$2000/unit price point. This provides headroom for lens sales to grow. Consumers who suck all their cash into a $3,000 body won't have enough left over to buy lenses, or they'll adopt into a waning market so slowly they'll need a new body before their next lens purchase comes out. Pentax FF would have to 4x their current optical output beyond the Q, 645, and APS series already in production.
FF is 7% of the DSLR market and 2% of the system camera market. So Pentax would get 5% of 7% of 2% of the overall market just by catering to the current users here for maybe a $150 million outlay. That's why price matters because Pentax needs to replace the K-5 buyers with FF buyers. Can't do that at $3,000 prices.