Originally posted by Fogel70 It's not the part Pentax buy that add most of the cost (even though Pentax will have to pay more for part than Nikon, as Pentax will buy in much lower volume). It's the parts where Pentax need to spend money and time on R&D that add most cost. FI a new FF version of the SR might have a larger R&D budget than a whole new APS-C DSLR. And as FF sells in much lower volume the R&D cost add much more on FF.
How do you expect Pentax to produce FF DSLR cheaper than Nikon when Pentax has to pay more for parts, and R&D cost will be higher on each sold camera?
Pentaxhas done exactly the same in 35mm film cameras for decades and i APS-C DSLR's.
Nikon is over-priced.
Originally posted by Fogel70 There are many new high end Smartphone coming all the time, and now days there are many high price Android devices. Many of the costing more than iPhone. But I don't think this has much to do with Pentax.
The overall price for smartphones is declining. high-end from 5 years ago will be middle value next year. Consumer electronics veer towards commodity.
Pentax has no cachet to produce an elite brand product.
Originally posted by Fogel70 Which probably lead to lower margins, and in the end, higher prices.
Actually, prices drop. When demand falls, prices decline closer to cost. To pay off the Sony FF fab they can either shutter it part-time or run the same volume at lower margins. Sony's bleeding red. They'll run it to the ground to pay it off.
This is exactly what happened with APS-C.
I don't see baseline costs increasing. I see them declining, especially as energy crunch costs wane. Same for rare earths. Aptina, Hitachi, Toshiba, Samsung, Canon, and Fuji can all jump into to compete further driving down costs. Which one of them will be the Hyundai of sensors?
Originally posted by Fogel70 That is probably only interting for high volume sales, but for low volume niche products it might not be possible.
It's not the bodies that are the problem for volume niche. It's the lenses.
A value product sells more bodies...because it is value. Therefore you'll sell more lenses.
For Canon and Nikon value = the used market. Frankly, I think that is Pentax's worst problem.
Originally posted by Fogel70 FF don't replace APS-C for most users, and they only get FF if it's a major advantage for the. The price of upgrading to FF will be too expensive for most users, but that is mostly because it's too expensive too replace APS-C glass with FF glass.
Having a APS-C system you only need to upgrade the camera, but upgrading to FF you might have to replace all your glass too.
That's my point. Are you going to upgrade all your glass with the only 3 Pentax zooms to justify your $2,600 FF purchase of a body which will be outdated in 3 years, or will you simply buy Canikon and have all the glass you will need for a decade already on the market?
To get over that hurdle Pentax has to offer value. What will entice the Pentax buyer to their FF model with a substantially smaller system overall to draw from?
Price will play a huge factor here as people who spend less on the body have more to spend on glass. Pentax should play to the TCO (total cost of ownership). Pentax simply cannot produce enough f/2.8 FF glass for the hobby elite.
The irony here for bodies is you still get to keep all your goodies like video, and WR. This is mostly about the optical side. There's some cost pressures coming as manufacturers try to network integrate their camera systems. I personally think this has been the silent stalker of recent sale declines.
Originally posted by Fogel70 FF is not for the vast majority of users, but only for a small group of users.
It probably take 5-10 more years before FF will be close to being able to replace APS-C.
Sub-$1,000, yes. APS-C will still dominate in volume. Consumers will get tremendous value from APS-C for a decade. You'll get a K-5ii equivalent with kit lens for US$999.
But above US$1,200 that's the issue. Pentax almost has no choice but to get their $1,500 camera body market into FF before Nikon and Canon do. That's a turf Pentax has always played in and which is essential to long-term glass sales. The D600 dropping in price even $200 is a Pentax nightmare both for FF and for APS-C.
The real challenge is to build a stable of compact, affordable, FF zoom lenses complemented by primes.