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01-25-2014, 03:30 PM   #46
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If we're comparing the K-3 with the D7100 - the Nikon was announced in February, the Pentax in October. To make into top 20 with only 2 months of sales, the K-3 would have to sell better than the D7000.
Pentax had 1.8% from the remaining 3.4%, by the way.

01-25-2014, 03:37 PM   #47
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
If we're comparing the K-3 with the D7100 - the Nikon was announced in February, the Pentax in October. To make into top 20 with only 2 months of sales, the K-3 would have to sell better than the D7000.
Pentax had 1.8% from the remaining 3.4%, by the way.
Thanks I did not know that. But offcourse that 1.8 % is devided with all those models (K-5, K-5 II, K-5 IIs, K-50, K-500 and K-3). This small overall marketshare for the K-mount is also one off the issues to deal with introducing any Full Frame model.

So expecting to sell a Full Frame and get in the top-20 chart is an illusion. If a Full Frame gets it to 0.5 % marketshare Ricoh is lucky I think.
01-25-2014, 04:33 PM   #48
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QuoteOriginally posted by RonHendriks1966 Quote
Thanks I did not know that. But offcourse that 1.8 % is devided with all those models (K-5, K-5 II, K-5 IIs, K-50, K-500 and K-3). This small overall marketshare for the K-mount is also one off the issues to deal with introducing any Full Frame model.

So expecting to sell a Full Frame and get in the top-20 chart is an illusion. If a Full Frame gets it to 0.5 % marketshare Ricoh is lucky I think.
Uh... ok, but Pentax has a tiny marketshare now, and the costs of the cameras are competitive if not better here in the US.

What market force dominates that makes that ratio impossible on FF?

I don't see sourcing their own inferior chip (taking volume down by a factor of 10?) making competitive-ness of a 'larger sensor' Pentax any better.
01-25-2014, 05:38 PM   #49
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QuoteOriginally posted by RonHendriks1966 Quote
So expecting to sell a Full Frame and get in the top-20 chart is an illusion. If a Full Frame gets it to 0.5 % marketshare Ricoh is lucky I think.
Who is expecting to see a Pentax "full frame" in the top 20 chart? Nikon barely made it.
And what exactly is your point? Your imaginary APS-H won't make it into that chart either.

01-25-2014, 06:05 PM   #50
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
Who is expecting to see a Pentax "full frame" in the top 20 chart? Nikon barely made it.
And what exactly is your point? Your imaginary APS-H won't make it into that chart either.
Well sales expectations are one off the issues why we are still waiting for a FF offering from Pentax. No other point to be maken by me at this point. Who knows CP+.
01-25-2014, 06:53 PM   #51
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So get rid of SR in camera and put AA filters back in? The K3 has the great innovation switchable AA filter and SR. So scrap that?
01-25-2014, 07:01 PM   #52
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Maybe just make the next flagship (K1?) to be more modular, with exchangable back. First, market the flagship with APS-C sensor first (before they are confident with FF), then introduce a FF module later. Maybe it can attract more buyers who doesn't mind APS-C at the moment but would definitely upgrade to FF module later. This way they can price the modular flagship at higher initial price (?), attract more customer for R&D money, then sell the later FF module at lower price (or discount for body owner???)
01-25-2014, 07:34 PM   #53
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Ricoh walked away from interchangeable sensors, and instead bought the K-mount. Seems unlikely that they'd go back so soon (unless my interpretation of them abandoning interchangeable 'backs' is wrong).

01-25-2014, 10:46 PM   #54
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I mentioned earlier in the thread about the handling and ergonomics of the K-5 being a major selling point. I forgot, as usual, to caveat that with "but only with the grip attached".

I find the K-5 on its own too small to handle, but with the grip attached it's superb. To keep SR just make the grip integral like the D3.
01-26-2014, 07:26 AM   #55
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QuoteOriginally posted by normhead Quote
Maybe we should reframe the question... if Pentax decide they can't support an FF camera, would you go for APS-H as an alternative as an upgrade to the K-* line? Given the choice, A7r type camera from another brand or 24-30 APS-h from Pentax, I'd look at the APS-h as my next upgrade. But really, I'm still looking for that $3500 645D.
I'm really happy with the K5ii. I would be hard pressed to replace it. I definitely would not buy an APS-H but an FF from Pentax would really get me thinking. I'd probably buy it on an impulse on my birthday or something, or maybe by then I might even be earning money with it . I would be totally happy with no SR too if that's what it took.
01-26-2014, 08:24 AM   #56
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Looking at the numbers... lets say Pentax has 5% market share, (3.4 +1.8. ) and SLRs are 8% of the market for the companies that control 80% of the market, so say 10% of their market.

That would mean Pentax would be aiming for a profit based on 10% of 5% or .5% market share. Since many have talked themselves into FF already and moved on. You have to ask how realistic that is. .5% market share if you do well. What if the camera is a flop? How much o Pentax's potential .5% are already shooting Nikon or Caon or now Sony?
01-26-2014, 08:29 AM   #57
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QuoteOriginally posted by normhead Quote
Looking at the numbers... lets say Pentax has 5% market share, (3.4 +1.8. ) and SLRs are 8% of the market for the companies that control 80% of the market, so say 10% of their market.

That would mean Pentax would be aiming for a profit based on 10% of 5% or .5% market share. Since many have talked themselves into FF already and moved on. You have to ask how realistic that is. .5% market share if you do well. What if the camera is a flop? How much o Pentax's potential .5% are already shooting Nikon or Caon or now Sony?
You're not wrong. They struggle to compete with APS-C and sadly as we all know here it's not because of design flaws or technical inability.

They lost the marketing war years ago and coming back from that when others have established market share is looking more than difficult.

It's a shame.
01-26-2014, 08:40 AM   #58
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QuoteOriginally posted by gmans Quote
So get rid of SR in camera and put AA filters back in? The K3 has the great innovation switchable AA filter and SR. So scrap that?
I think this is a very valid point. Pentax needs to hold on to the SR in body and maybe that means compromising on other things.

QuoteOriginally posted by Parry Quote
I mentioned earlier in the thread about the handling and ergonomics of the K-5 being a major selling point. I forgot, as usual, to caveat that with "but only with the grip attached".

I find the K-5 on its own too small to handle, but with the grip attached it's superb. To keep SR just make the grip integral like the D3.
Well I still think this is a good idea, but somehow over time the K-3 body without grip would be great if everything fits into it. The body with integrated grip is still very small, compared to the large D4/1Dx camera's. It is also a different form to make the camera. So if the body has to grow to pack it al inside, then I would prefer the integrated grip that give the same volume as say a D800, but the convenience of having two grips to use the camera.

Did a Dear Pentax on it:
https://www.pentaxforums.com/forums/137-photographic-industry-professionals/15728-dear-pentax-26.html#post1706046

QuoteOriginally posted by normhead Quote
Looking at the numbers... lets say Pentax has 5% market share, (3.4 +1.8. ) and SLRs are 8% of the market for the companies that control 80% of the market, so say 10% of their market.

That would mean Pentax would be aiming for a profit based on 10% of 5% or .5% market share. Since many have talked themselves into FF already and moved on. You have to ask how realistic that is. .5% market share if you do well. What if the camera is a flop? How much o Pentax's potential .5% are already shooting Nikon or Caon or now Sony?
I think this is very good way off looking at it. I don't think that people are gone by now all off them, but selling more camera's then the 0.5 % marketshare is a big challenge. Initial sales would be good for the first 6 months or so, but then there will be a drought in sales I think.
01-26-2014, 08:57 AM   #59
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That's why Ricoh Imaging is working at growing the installed user base. More users = more things are possible.
From their reports (another will be published by the end of the month) there has been progress in this area. Enough to make a "full frame" line possible? We'll see.
01-26-2014, 10:50 AM - 1 Like   #60
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So let me see if I can list the pros and cons. Maybe someone can make a more detailed list, with sources.
APS-H pros:
- Has advantages over APS-C, for example wider angles and maybe less noise
- Has advantages over FF, for example slightly longer lenses and maybe smaller camera body
- At the same time, the area/crop difference between APS-H and FF is much smaller than between FF and APS-C, so it feels more similar
- FF might not allow SR and full use of DA lenses, because (some of) these lenses project an image circle that is too small. APS-H might allow all of the functions that APS-C offers right now (as in, no AA filter, in-body SR and selective AA filter, maybe even sensor shift). An APS-H mirror would also fit more comfortably in the mirror box than an FF mirror
- It might attract non-Pentaxians to think about Pentax, as it would offer something other brands do not, a "best of both worlds" solution/compromise, allowing legacy lenses, all the current features, while not being "too far" from FF


APS-H cons:
- Not very common, which might mean it costs more. The 16MP sensor, for example, was used in many Pentax cameras and even many non-Pentax cameras, which probably kept the cost relatively low and the performance remained high. An APS-H would have a smaller production and might require development of new technologies, which costs a lot. On the other hand, sensor technology has improved a lot, and costs have been lowered significantly in the past few years, so maybe this is not such a big deal anymore
- Its not APS-C that we are used to and its not FF that some dream about. And some people have the fear that APS-H would prevent Pentax from ever going FF.
- it might confuse and repel non-Pentaxians, preventing Pentax to grow as fast (since growth is often associated with mainstream features)

Btw, Ron, did you talk about the XS line of lenses? Will they ever make any more?

Last edited by Na Horuk; 01-26-2014 at 11:01 AM.
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