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View Poll Results: Do you think FF will be announced at Photokina?
Yes 21632.58%
No 44767.42%
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06-27-2014, 03:48 AM   #301
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QuoteOriginally posted by Daikokuya Quote

Ricoh's CEO Mr. Miura said so last year. According to him, Pentax's aim is to be break-even, not profitable!
That is possible if the FF from Pentax is 80% the K-3, and remaining 20% is something unique. 645Z follow that same recipe.
So based on that assumption, even in worst case scenario sales of the FF will break even, as other parts of the lineup will share the cost too. Add to this more basic models like the K-50's successors that will inherit lots of K-3's tech, and the FF may turn out to be quit a nice effort for Pentax.

06-27-2014, 03:57 AM   #302
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lol of course Pentax is stronger in the MF than FF... because they have MF, but don't have FF! Pentax could have been strong in FF, too, had they launched one!
06-27-2014, 03:55 PM   #303
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QuoteOriginally posted by Daikokuya Quote
You aren't following. The experience in the K-3 to the 645Z doesn't necessitate the success in FF, because Pentax hasn't so far launched digital FF, where Canikon has a dominant share. The 1800-2200 model has to compete against the D610, the 6D, and the A7/r/s.

Think about Sony's FF. Has the A900 or the A99 eroded Canikon's share? The A7/r/s is a bit different story, which I think has gained some market share due to its lightness and versatility. However, the A-mount FF is miserable in terms of sales. I have once heard that the A900 can't be profitable unless twice the amount is sold with twice the price. The main pillar of Sony's camera division is P&S. When Sony made profits in P&S, there were few problems to lose money in the A-mount. But now things are completely different. P&S is losing. That's why Sony is reluctant to update the A-mount body and lens, which could jeopardize the whole camera business.

Unless Pentax shows that they can make a true difference in FF markets unlike Sony, things would go awful which could really topple Pentax business to the point where the K-mount, once the world's dominant camera mount, is gone. If you're a manager, could you risk that?

Ricoh's CEO Mr. Miura said so last year. According to him, Pentax's aim is to be break-even, not profitable!
I am following. I simply disagree with your conclusions.

'Success' is what? Being the industry leader, or number 2 in sales, or number 3, being a loss leader in drawing more people to buy various Pentax branded products, forcing other brands to innovate further to keep their lead, providing honorable product for the brand, or something else?

If you think they need to chew majorly into Canikony's FF market.. then I can see why you'd say what you say. But it seems the negativity has been around the industry for over a decade and yet the industry has managed to survive quite well.. Each company has proven to be more resilient for than many give them credit.

Pentax could enter the FF market if they want to. They don't require massive sales. The words, if true, that you mentioned Ricoh's CEO stating show this.. they don't even worry about massive sales and being 1 or 2. They can release a FF and be 3 or 4 and that is ok. As long as they aren't burning money... that is the revenue from building, producing, and supporting the FF body(ies) is made up in increased lens and other product sales as a result of the FF system, then what does it matter what % of the marketshare they own?

Japanese seem to, at least from this distant chair, respect the old and the group. There seems to be more of a duty almost to keep the old continuing even with the new is superior. Plus there seems to be more of an effort to meet goals vs pure financial gain. You meet your goals (listening to customers, innovating in market in some fashion, providing certain product), you stick to the plan, and all is well. Of course if you continually lose money, all is not well. But the point I'm making is a pure financial or leader standpoint doesn't seem to be the number one driving factor in Japanese business.

Versus Western style which seems to play cuthroat for the most efficient method of making the most amount of money. If you do not meet financial goal X you failed. the end. who cares about the employee, the product, the customer, or anything else beyond pure financial profit? That is general western style.

So perhaps some of this is in analyzing a different culture and mindset with our own? It would be fascinating to hear from someone more familiar with Japanese culture and mindset in corporations.
06-27-2014, 05:57 PM   #304
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QuoteOriginally posted by Uluru Quote
That is possible if the FF from Pentax is 80% the K-3, and remaining 20% is something unique. 645Z follow that same recipe. So based on that assumption, even in worst case scenario sales of the FF will break even, as other parts of the lineup will share the cost too...
That's clear. Any FF would never be a stand alone exercise. It will be part of a technology and product basket across Pentax. You see the same thing in Nikon, Canon and Sony. Tech and experience from one body finds it's way into other bodies in the lineup, so costs are shared and improvements migrate across the product line. Any idea of costs and success in a [speculative] Pentax FF needs to reflect that.

06-28-2014, 02:11 AM   #305
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QuoteOriginally posted by Uluru Quote
That is possible if the FF from Pentax is 80% the K-3, and remaining 20% is something unique. 645Z follow that same recipe.
So based on that assumption, even in worst case scenario sales of the FF will break even, as other parts of the lineup will share the cost too. Add to this more basic models like the K-50's successors that will inherit lots of K-3's tech, and the FF may turn out to be quit a nice effort for Pentax.
Very true, but based on this same concept in 2010 when the K-7 lead into the 645D there could also be a Full Frame camera on the same principle. The problem is that the 645D/645Z have a productionsystem that is more expensive due to the smaller number coming out off production, but that is compensated with a hi price in shops. For any full frame camera with low numbers in production one can't compensate with salesprice since the competition is D610 priced camera's.
06-28-2014, 11:40 AM   #306
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QuoteOriginally posted by RonHendriks1966 Quote
Very true, but based on this same concept in 2010 when the K-7 lead into the 645D there could also be a Full Frame camera on the same principle. The problem is that the 645D/645Z have a productionsystem that is more expensive due to the smaller number coming out off production, but that is compensated with a hi price in shops. For any full frame camera with low numbers in production one can't compensate with salesprice since the competition is D610 priced camera's.

Would the pricing on the sensors themselves decrease over time due to improved manufacturing techniques leading to increased yields and return on the initial R&D investment? I know in computer components (which I see a DSLR as.. a specialized computer) pricing tends to trend for these reasons. Obviously Ricoh isn't making their own sensors.. likely Sony or Toshiba designs... which means the technology and production lines are probably already in place somewhere.

So maybe they are also waiting for Nikon or the like to do the grunt work for them? By the time they get inside of a Pentax branded body, maybe they will be cheaper than they had been for Nikon or some other company out of the gate. Which means, if all well and true, the Pentax dFF could be competitively priced.
06-28-2014, 08:18 PM   #307
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QuoteOriginally posted by mee Quote
...By the time they get inside of a Pentax branded body, maybe they will be cheaper than they had been for Nikon or some other company out of the gate. Which means, if all well and true, the Pentax dFF could be competitively priced.
I think that has to be true.

The Sony 24MP sensor in the D600/Alpha 99/RX1 started appearing in camera bodies in Sept 2012. By the time it may find it's way into a Pentax 24MP FF in Sept 2014, probably hundreds of thousands of chips would already have been produced by Sony, probably in several variants. The unit cost should after 2 years have been significantly reduced, to the benefit of Pentax.
06-28-2014, 09:54 PM   #308
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QuoteOriginally posted by mee Quote
So maybe they are also waiting for Nikon or the like to do the grunt work for them? By the time they get inside of a Pentax branded body, maybe they will be cheaper than they had been for Nikon or some other company out of the gate. Which means, if all well and true, the Pentax dFF could be competitively priced.
The problem is that Ricoh will buy maybe 1/10 - 1/20 as many FF sensors as Nikon do, so Ricoh don't have as much power when negotiating price. Both Nikon and Ricoh probably want the sensors to be slightly modified to the own specifications, which then will add more cost for Ricoh because of lower volume.

And this is true for most parts Ricoh needs to buy, manufacture or invest for FF production, Ricoh just don't get the same economies of scale as Nikon do.

06-28-2014, 10:10 PM   #309
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QuoteOriginally posted by Fogel70 Quote
The problem is that Ricoh will buy maybe 1/10 - 1/20 as many FF sensors as Nikon do, so Ricoh don't have as much power when negotiating price. Both Nikon and Ricoh probably want the sensors to be slightly modified to the own specifications, which then will add more cost for Ricoh because of lower volume.

And this is true for most parts Ricoh needs to buy, manufacture or invest for FF production, Ricoh just don't get the same economies of scale as Nikon do.
Economies are irrelevant because company size and overheads are different. Nikon needs much more margin on top to sustain itself than Ricoh Imaging. That means, even with, say, twice as "bad" sensor prices, Ricoh Imaging can end up being better overall in terms of profit than Nikon.
06-28-2014, 10:11 PM   #310
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QuoteOriginally posted by Fogel70 Quote
Ricoh just don't get the same economies of scale as Nikon do.
Maybe they do.

Many of the components of digital cameras are made by sub-contractors who make stuff for many camera companies. Copal, for example, make most of the camera shutters in use by many current DSLR's. Ditto for many of the chips in the camera body, and other parts. So economies of scale for a lot of what makes up a camera may be shared across the whole industry. High volume users of those components may, in effect, make them more affordable for other buyers.

Custom parts that are exclusive to a camera brand (eg the exposure metering chip or the imaging engine chip) may find economies of scale within the brand by being shared across several bodies being produced by the brand, which is what Pentax has been doing for a while.
06-28-2014, 10:51 PM   #311
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QuoteOriginally posted by rawr Quote
Many of the components of digital cameras are made by sub-contractors who make stuff for many camera companies. Copal, for example, make most of the camera shutters in use by many current DSLR's. Ditto for many of the chips in the camera body, and other parts. So economies of scale for a lot of what makes up a camera may be shared across the whole industry. High volume users of those components may, in effect, make them more affordable for other buyers.
Yes, but if you buy parts in much higher volume you generally get lower price on them.

Canikon usually put new stuff in the high end cameras first, so that R&D cost can be covered before they but the parts in lower end cameras.
Ricoh will most likely only have FF cameras competing with low end cameras from Canikon, so Ricoh need to cover for R&D cost on them. So I really don't think Ricoh will try or are able to go for lowest price.

Last edited by Fogel70; 06-28-2014 at 11:05 PM.
06-28-2014, 11:41 PM   #312
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QuoteOriginally posted by Fogel70 Quote
Ricoh will most likely only have FF cameras competing with low end cameras from Canikon
Well, remember that the 'low-end' bodies from Canikon may not exactly be much competition

I've just been looking at the specs for the 6D or the D610. By just dropping a FF sensor into the K-3 body, you'd basically have a better camera than a D610 or 6D, without much further effort or expense. Pic related:

06-29-2014, 12:26 AM   #313
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QuoteOriginally posted by rawr Quote
Well, remember that the 'low-end' bodies from Canikon may not exactly be much competition

I've just been looking at the specs for the 6D or the D610. By just dropping a FF sensor into the K-3 body, you'd basically have a better camera than a D610 or 6D, without much further effort or expense. Pic related:
Ricoh still need to put a lot R&D on this project. New SR mechanism, new viewfinder, new mirror box, new shutter, new lenses...
Canon 6D and Nikon D6x0 are two years old in design. So they will be updated in a not too distant future (maybe before Pentax FF is released). So Pentax FF need to match next generation FF entry level, not the cameras that are out now.

Last edited by Fogel70; 06-29-2014 at 12:32 AM.
06-29-2014, 01:09 AM   #314
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I agree (and should be obvious) - Pentax need to match the same generation cameras (whatever/whenever that would be), not the current one. But... why entry level?
Competition's entry level are made "cheap" in ways Pentax could not match (volume, reusing parts developed for other bodies), or would put off some people (e.g. reusing an APS-C AF). Perhaps a step above entry level would work out better?
06-29-2014, 01:59 AM   #315
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
Perhaps a step above entry level would work out better?
Well, the K-3 already competes very well with 'above entry-level' bodies like the 5D3 and the D810 (and the A7R) when it comes to important basics like metering, AF and fps. Pic related:



Once again, not an impossible hurdle for Pentax to move into that FF space, just based on the existing tech of the K-3.

Now, add some new and updated lenses ...
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