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View Poll Results: Do you think FF will be announced at Photokina?
Yes 21632.58%
No 44767.42%
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09-06-2014, 04:20 PM   #571
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It doesn't sound all that likely that the situation in the USA will be turned around soon, if ever. Slow progress sounds the likeliest outcome. Ricoh have already had three years. If the USA was that essential to their plans, then one would have expected a lot more sound and fury by now. In fact, if it was that important one would have expected Ricoh to have flagged the situation there as a mantrap in their due diligence and not bought the company. Besides, so far was we can tell, FF cameras are quite high up the rankings in Europe and in Japan and Asia too - from sites like Amazon, BCN, the really big web operations and retail chains and so forth. The Americas are currently accounting for 21 per cent by volume and about the same in value of DSLR camera shipments. Asia in contrast accounts for 36 per cent of DSLR shipments and around 40 per cent by value. Do folks in Asia buy pricier DSLRs? The average price is slightly higher there (shipments/value on the CIPA figures) and overall the market is getting on for twice as large as the Americas. I'm sure the US situation doesn't help but I wonder if it is really crucial to a company which looks to be aiming more at the rest of the world anyway. Will it sell well in Japan, Asia and Europe seems to be a key criterion now. So, anyway, I'm not sure "our infrastructure in the USA is too weak" would be the whole story behind any decision on an FF.


Last edited by mecrox; 09-06-2014 at 04:34 PM.
09-06-2014, 04:30 PM   #572
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QuoteOriginally posted by noser Quote
So you're under NDA, or don't want to blow your buddies NDA? Any hints?
Clearly, no. There's plenty of hints without making stuff up.
QuoteOriginally posted by noser Quote
Based on the changes to your sig block lately it seems like a prototype was field tested and then pulled recently...
You said all of that.

Last edited by monochrome; 09-06-2014 at 05:53 PM.
09-06-2014, 06:38 PM   #573
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QuoteOriginally posted by rawr Quote
Indeed. Maybe Pentax might revive it's old technology sharing agreement with Samsung if this Samsung sensor tech works out OK

I bet this tech will perform even better if they use it in a FF sensor.
Pentax is using Sony sensors for 100%
Every current Pentax and the cameras next time,are using Sony sensors.
Still i have not seen the stuff for Photokina,only the lens road map and the line up for next time.
If it is complete on the show,we could see aps-c wideangel zoom,medium telezomm prograde and a tele zoom high grade.
new 645 80-160 wr sr.
Best regards
09-06-2014, 06:45 PM   #574
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
You said all of that.
You're killing me!

09-06-2014, 06:54 PM   #575
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
You said all of that.
This is how rumors survive.
09-06-2014, 07:27 PM   #576
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QuoteOriginally posted by noser Quote
You're killing me!
I just read stuff here. The most amazingly connected people make one post that nobody ever remarks upon . . . .
QuoteOriginally posted by DeadJohn Quote
This is how rumors survive.
If you say you know something you are either a liar or breaking your NDA. If you say you don't know anything you are either coy or maintaining your NDA.

Depending on what the rumorers want to infer.

When it is obvious that people misinterpret one sarcastic tiny 1-point-font line as a rumor it is time to say nothing.

Last edited by monochrome; 09-06-2014 at 07:35 PM.
09-06-2014, 07:39 PM   #577
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
I just read stuff here. The most amazingly connected people make one post that nobody ever remarks upon . . . .
The trick is figuring who is amazingly connected or has some real insight, and who is just getting kicks out of pretending they are such.

In truth, I have spent almost 12 months on this site now trying to discern whether a FF is approaching, and I remain as clueless and confused (if not more so) than I ever have been.

Maybe I'm just a bit dim
09-07-2014, 02:39 AM   #578
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QuoteOriginally posted by jsherman999 Quote
If Pentax sells 10% of the volume of Nikon's D800 alone, they sell 36,000 bodies the first year. At initial MSRP of $3K Nikon reportedly made at least $1000/body profit on the D800 (source: thogan,) If Pentax makes even half that margin, they're looking at $18 Million profit in the first year on the body alone. Then come the lenses, which usually can have even greater margins.
I don't think the problem is to sell those 36.000 body's in the first year. That is about 3,6 % of the FF market at this point. There are plenty of current K-mount users who want that nice and shiny FF. The problem is how to sell 36.000 units in the second and third year. I do see that as a major issue..

09-07-2014, 03:05 AM   #579
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QuoteOriginally posted by RonHendriks1966 Quote
I don't think the problem is to sell those 36.000 body's in the first year. That is about 3,6 % of the FF market at this point. There are plenty of current K-mount users who want that nice and shiny FF. The problem is how to sell 36.000 units in the second and third year. I do see that as a major issue..
Perhaps the issue isn't selling XX,000 units in the first year or in the second and third years too. It's selling XX,000 units a year from hereon in. Any venture into FF has to be a viable, solid project on its own, otherwise the only sales will come from some existing Pentax-owners and those will fall away quickly. This then raises the question of the K-mount because looking forward the DSLR is likely to become less rather than more dominant as a form factor and, besides, realistically a K-mount camera will never gain more than a tiny share of the DSLR market since the market is pretty well owned by Canon and Nikon with their gazillions in sales and marketing spend and world-wide infrastructure (Ricoh are a minnow in all three areas by comparison).

But, of course, we hear that three mounts is the maximum that Pentax can handle, so a camera with a new mount is a non-starter. Then folks start appearing with spreadsheets full of red ink and soon we are in paralysis by analysis.

Personally I think that Pentax's devotion to the K-mount is slowly but surely strangling the company. The K-mount will never gain more than a very small audience in the digital age: it confines Pentax to earning most of their money from a single form factor but one where they are pretty well imprisoned by Canon and Nikon. The big two outfits are holding Pentax to around 5 per cent of the DSLR market maximum - in a market which is shrinking quite a lot. It wouldn't be a huge surprise to find there is an "understanding" between all three companies, in fact. Canon and Nikon get the DSLR market but allow Pentax a few crumbs in specific areas only - and only crumbs, not slices of cake. I've never heard anyone say that Pentax will break out of their cell and gain, say, 10-15 per cent of the DSLR market. I'm not sure even Pentax staffers suggest it.

Anyway, if you were a brand-new camera company starting out today, with no historical legacy to worry about, a clean sheet of paper and some very talented engineers, which would you choose - a DSLR mount and form factor or a different kind of mount and form factor altogether. I hope Ricoh are bold enough to go for a bit more than "another day, another DSLR" but I'm not holding my breath even assuming a Pentax FF ever happens.

Last edited by mecrox; 09-07-2014 at 05:12 AM.
09-07-2014, 03:06 AM   #580
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QuoteOriginally posted by RonHendriks1966 Quote
I don't think the problem is to sell those 36.000 body's in the first year...
K-3 limited silver were made 2000 units (according petapixel), but until now they have not been matched buyers, and the sale price was lowered in 999 euros in Estonia (last week). Even today, they are on sale in B&H, Adorama, Amazon...
09-07-2014, 03:51 AM   #581
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QuoteOriginally posted by mecrox Quote
Anyway, if you were a brand-new camera company starting out today, with no historical legacy to worry about, a clean sheet of paper and some very talented engineers, which would you choose - a DSLR mount and form factor or a different kind of mount and form factor altogether. I hope Ricoh are bold enough to go for a bit more than "another day, another DSLR" but I'm not holding my breath even assuming a Pentax FF ever happens.
You could be a company that has a history making cameras but decides to act like a brand new company - you could be Fuji.
09-07-2014, 03:53 AM   #582
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aksel Quote
K-3 limited silver were made 2000 units (according petapixel), but until now they have not been matched buyers, and the sale price was lowered in 999 euros in Estonia (last week). Even today, they are on sale in B&H, Adorama, Amazon...
The story going around was that they sold out the initial planned production run during the pre-order period (some said in a few days) so they ordered another run. The second run seems too have been too many.
09-07-2014, 03:59 AM   #583
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QuoteOriginally posted by mecrox Quote
Personally I think that Pentax's devotion to the K-mount is slowly but surely strangling the company. It will never gain more than a very small audience in the digital age, since it is confined to a single form factor and is pretty well imprisoned by Canon and Nikon which are holding it to around 5 per cent of the DSLR market maximum - in a market which is shrinking quite a lot. It wouldn't be a huge surprise to find there is an "understanding" between all three companies, in fact. Canon and Nikon get the DSLR market but allow Pentax a few crumbs in specific areas only - and only crumbs, not slices of cake.
Getting a bigger marketshare is one of the big goals to achieve I think. Holding up sales will grow that marketshare when the current total sales are dropping. Developing a FF is one thing, making an estimate about future sales is critical to make a profit on the project. You have your costs on the project and the costs for unit production (that is a productionline running at 100% to be the cheapest). So for the first 50.000 units(or maybe even a hi'er number) you earn nothing, but recover your investments and start earning money on the ongoing sales after that point. Havng sales beyond that point is crusial to make the project profitable.

QuoteOriginally posted by Aksel Quote
K-3 limited silver were made 2000 units (according petapixel), but until now they have not been matched buyers, and the sale price was lowered in 999 euros in Estonia (last week). Even today, they are on sale in B&H, Adorama, Amazon...
Well I don't believe the number 2000, but when it is that camera really didn't landed well. To expensive with the grip, should't be in the box. Problem with the K-3 is that however a great camera, owners of a K-5, K-5 II or K-5 Iis have no strong need to upgrade. This was very different when the K-5 arrived in 2010, since it was miles better then all previous Pentax models.
09-07-2014, 06:25 AM   #584
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QuoteOriginally posted by mecrox Quote
It wouldn't be a huge surprise to find there is an "understanding" between all three companies, in fact. Canon and Nikon get the DSLR market but allow Pentax a few crumbs in specific areas only - and only crumbs, not slices of cake.
Well, apparently Sony didn't get the memo. The new Samsung NX1 is another camera that's basically adopting a Pentax philosophy, but with more up to date specs. The Sony E-mount / A-mount system, as clunky as it is, also looks like a Pentax direction that didn't happen (with the K mount). The innovations of Sony and Samsung (for instance, as well as Canon) originate from other tech (cell phones, security cameras, printers). Does Ricoh have much to offer there? Are there a bunch of patents I don't know about? I fear that these mega companies are just too strong on tech, and dollars, and too willing to use cameras as a showcase for their technology (not worrying about big profits) for Pentax to compete.

QuoteOriginally posted by RonHendriks1966 Quote
Well I don't believe the number 2000, but when it is that camera really didn't landed well. To expensive with the grip, should't be in the box. Problem with the K-3 is that however a great camera, owners of a K-5, K-5 II or K-5 Iis have no strong need to upgrade. This was very different when the K-5 arrived in 2010, since it was miles better then all previous Pentax models.
The K3 is a great camera, but at this point everyone knows about its flaws, and the specs are a year weaker. The A7 is offered at huge discounts, this NX1 is coming out, e-mounts are coming out continuously, and a new a-mount is due to be announced at photokina. Honestly, I never saw this commemorative edition of the K3 as anything more than a last attempt to squeeze an already squeezed lemon.

Last edited by easyreeder; 09-07-2014 at 06:26 AM. Reason: comma
09-07-2014, 07:49 AM - 1 Like   #585
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QuoteOriginally posted by easyreeder Quote
... Honestly, I never saw this commemorative edition of the K3 as anything more than a last attempt to squeeze an already squeezed lemon.
Or a stopgap until the next flagship is ready.

Or it's a cultural / status thing not felt as deeply outside of Japan.

But it is well squeezed...
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