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View Poll Results: Do you think FF will be announced at Photokina?
Yes 21632.58%
No 44767.42%
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09-07-2014, 08:35 AM   #586
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QuoteOriginally posted by Poit Quote
The trick is figuring who is amazingly connected or has some real insight, and who is just getting kicks out of pretending they are such.
I'm not now. Amazingly connected, that is. I'm not Wendy B. either.

Saying Nothing is probably a good strategy.

09-07-2014, 09:29 AM   #587
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It's not just Plant and F&F...

QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
1-year LIBOR is 0.56% today; LIBOR + 3.00 % = 3.56%
$70,000,000 * 3.56% = $2,492,000 = <$15,000,000 over 5 years, assuming compounding

You seem to be basing your calculations on the retail MAP prices.

Revenue to Ricoh Imaging Company, Ltd. (Japan) is limited to something like 50% of the retail price - for batch-run items such as lenses there is also the carrying cost of holding the inventory for long periods; there is then a markup at the Distributor or Division to cover the costs of operating the Division (such as Ricoh Imaging Americas); and the retailer markup from that price, which might actually be 35%. Any marketing expense such as promotions and advertising is costed after the factory door.

The actual cost of a camera body or lens might be 50% of 50% of the Retail MAP price.

An investment of $150,000,000 such as you suggested earlier might be equivalent to the entire Plant and Equipment necessary to re-equip Ricoh brand-new, with a capital life of 10 to 40 years. Ricoh wouldn't allocate ALL of the P&E to a FF camera and two lenses and expect a 1-year equity return on the full amount. They'd simply dedicate the correct number of the total production lines to FF cameras and lenses, then make something else on those lines when they had built enough FF cameras and lenses. Meanwhile they'd be making several APSc cameras and lenses and Q cameras and lenses and Ricoh cameras and lenses in the balance of the $150,000,000 of Plant and Equipment.
The cost of a unit is likely .65 of Wholesale, add 45% and you get Retail, MSRP, Whatever... Likely 60% 0f the Sunk costs are R&D, Tooling, Licenses, Raw, and 40% is inventory to load the channel, the macro numbers I laid out hold nicely. The last robotic plant I built in 2001 was $205mm, with $1.2Bn of inventory in it. Even if we use the 10 year rate, the equity in IRR will still FAR outsize that.

I assure you that ALL of the incremental F&F and raw and R&D would be allocated to just this line, else they have GAAP issues and a public company cannot play too much with tens of millions of dollars in depreciation (elevates near term profits= cooking the books).... Some line equipment may have a 7-10 year cycle, but MRO cap-ex needs to be added in..... Ricoh is a very professional firm, and it's Board and Shacho (CEO) cannot allow too big of a risk by under accruing or allocation errors.

I agree that the revenue to Ricoh would be roughly half, but the cost of the camera is likely 65% of the half they get... Lens profits.. are a bit higher, I would suspect since the raw is lower...
09-07-2014, 08:25 PM   #588
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
If you say you don't know anything you are either coy or maintaining your NDA.
Uh... I don't know anything, and I am neither coy nor under NDA.


09-07-2014, 09:21 PM   #589
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So... it's after Monday noon in Tokyo...

Does that mean it's time to start the 'Salon de la Photo 2014 - FF ?' Poll & Thread now?

Or are we going for the full ride here, until the official end of Photokina?

09-07-2014, 09:38 PM   #590
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Huh, didn't think it started until next week. I say we wait until Photokina closes.

That said there's usually a rumor out by now...
09-07-2014, 09:42 PM   #591
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I think it starts on the 16th, so 9 days. But the others will start with leaks and releases, so it's either start leaking now, or get lost in the news / noise.
09-07-2014, 10:52 PM   #592
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QuoteOriginally posted by ElJamoquio Quote
Uh... I don't know anything, and I am neither coy nor under NDA.



I don't know anything either, and my daughter can vouch for that.
09-08-2014, 04:36 AM   #593
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QuoteOriginally posted by Poit Quote
The trick is figuring who is amazingly connected or has some real insight, ..
Boy, Pentax is like a band everyone comes to listen to perform a song they never made into music.


Last edited by Uluru; 09-08-2014 at 04:48 AM.
09-08-2014, 09:32 AM   #594
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This post makes complete sense...

QuoteOriginally posted by asahi man Quote
Pentax is using Sony sensors for 100%
Every current Pentax and the cameras next time,are using Sony sensors.
Still i have not seen the stuff for Photokina,only the lens road map and the line up for next time.
If it is complete on the show,we could see aps-c wideangel zoom,medium telezomm prograde and a tele zoom high grade.
new 645 80-160 wr sr.
Best regards
My guess is the Wide Angle Zoom will be HD not DA* and an upgrade/replacement of the 12-24....
a D-FA* 70-2XX f2.8, hopefully lighter than FA*...
and the lens you and I posted about several times (possibly longer than 400mm at the top end and HD like the 560 not DA* or D-FA*...

Am I on track?

どうもありがとうございました
09-08-2014, 04:09 PM - 1 Like   #595
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09-08-2014, 04:28 PM   #596
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QuoteOriginally posted by GlassJunkie Quote
My guess is the Wide Angle Zoom will be HD not DA* and an upgrade/replacement of the 12-24....
a D-FA* 70-2XX f2.8, hopefully lighter than FA*...
and the lens you and I posted about several times (possibly longer than 400mm at the top end and HD like the 560 not DA* or D-FA*...

Am I on track?

どうもありがとうございました
There's supposed to be a new Pro label coming to replace DA* since the ' * ' doesn't Google well. I would guess anything you would label DA* or D-FA* might be labeled "DA Pro" or "D-FA Pro" (which might mean designed for a 36x24-sensored camera).

So, in order of price, low to high:

DA (traditional coatings = SMC)
DA HD (presumably somewhat better build)
DA Limited HD
DA Pro (probably HD)
09-08-2014, 04:49 PM   #597
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
There's supposed to be a new Pro label coming to replace DA* since the ' * ' doesn't Google well. I would guess anything you would label DA* or D-FA* might be labeled "DA Pro" or "D-FA Pro" (which might mean designed for a 36x24-sensored camera).

So, in order of price, low to high:

DA (traditional coatings = SMC)
DA HD (presumably somewhat better build)
DA Limited HD
DA Pro (probably HD)
I hope you're right. The DA* line could us faster AF motors, HD coatings, and some optical improvements. The latest fast lenses from the competition are sharp wide open and across the frame.

Fuji's new 18-55mm constant F/2.8 OIS WR looks like a beast. There is some serious glass coming this month. I just hope Pentax still has the talent to compete.
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09-08-2014, 08:23 PM - 2 Likes   #598
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16-55
Yep, a lens the size of a pint glass.
Pint and shoot.
09-08-2014, 08:32 PM   #599
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QuoteOriginally posted by calsan Quote
Pint and shoot.
That needs to go on a t-shirt.
09-08-2014, 09:01 PM   #600
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QuoteOriginally posted by Winder Quote

Fuji's new 18-55mm constant F/2.8 OIS WR looks like a beast. There is some serious glass coming this month. I just hope Pentax still has the talent to compete.
When looking at that picture, I scratch my head. Can someone enlighten me and explain the point of Fuji's system?

Fujifilm's managers: "You said Canon's lenses are big? Wait till you see OURS!" Bwahahahaha ...

Users: "........" [scratch their heads — they have just sold their DSLR and a plethora of lenses to get a mirrorless Fuji that mimics the DSLR and comes with even bigger lenses]
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