My simple thoughts on the matter....Pentax/Ricoh probably have everything (or nearly everything) in place to launch a FF, including what it's main features/selling points will be, and a new lens lineup, it's just a matter of when would be best to do so.
Points
for a Photokina 2014 Announcement:
- Pentax/Ricoh have been making waves in the photo-world in the past six months. The K-3 was critically acclaimed as 'taking on the big two' in the high-end APS-C market.The 645z has now shaken up conventional thinking, and again taken on the big two (this time their own flagship D4 and 1D cameras) for studio and other ultra-high quality photography. When you have momentum like that, do you sit on your laurels and let everyone respond? I think now, while the Pentax name is getting some attention, is the PERFECT time to hit the market with a new (and different) FF offering;
- Pentax/Ricoh have shown at least some of their hand in strategy terms. There remains one glaring gap in their capability (fast, high ISO capable, photojournalistic and wedding photography friendly...with fast lenses to suit). Nail that with an attractive offering and they're REALLY going to be in the game;
- It's quite clear they have the technical ability to produce a great FF camera now (just look at k-3 and 645z). I don't buy the 'not enough lenses' argument. They've had plenty of time to develop lenses since they first (publicly) announced FF was in development in 2012, and as others on this forum regularly comment (or complain), they haven't released any NEW k-mount designs for quite some time. Wonder why? If they are so devoted to k-mount, what could theypossibly be working on?;
- Photokina is the biggest international photography show, and only happens every two years. All eyes in photography world are on that show, so big announcements are usually made there. If they say they are going to do FF (which they do) 2014 is MUCH more likely than 2016.
Points
Against Photokina 2014 announcement:
- Photokina is the biggest international photography show, and only happens every two years. All eyes in photography world are on that show, so big announcements are usually made there. Why make a big announcement and risk getting drowned out but all the others? Maybe early 2015 would be better?;
- MONEY! I don't know what the financials of the Ricoh Imaging group are, but some business-minded folk on this forum enjoy pointing out that it's expensive to put new things into production. If this is really a factor for Ricoh, then it's not so much about Photokina 2014, but if it is realistic to produce a FF
ever (given my comments above about now being the perfect time). Unfortunately, money can often be the determining factor; and
- The 645z has just been released, and touted in sales literature as 'so much better than 35mm FF'. Maybe releasing a FF shortly afterwards will not only sound contradictory, but impact on sales of 645z. An interesting trade-off with my "hit the market now, when you're in the ascendency" argument.
Just my armchair analysis on the current state of play. I remain as confused but quietly hopeful as everyone else.