Forgot Password
Pentax Camera Forums Home
 

Reply
Show Printable Version Search this Thread
05-23-2014, 10:22 AM   #61
Pentaxian




Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Romania
Posts: 8,816
QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
There will be a Pentax FF camera. Ricoh has other things to do first. Maybe they've done them all - maybe they haven't.
It most likely will; but now I'm no longer believing in a Photokina launch

05-23-2014, 03:45 PM   #62
Pentaxian




Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: GMT +10
Photos: Albums
Posts: 10,720
Just going from the chronology, the K-3 was launched circa Oct 2013, K-5 IIs about September 2012, K-5 Sept 2010 ... and Photokina is September 2014. So Ricoh will probably announce something DSLR in September, even if it is just a K-3 II. A Pentax full-frame would make more of a splash, of course, than just an upgraded K-3.

IMHO it's probably cheaper and easier to do a FF nowdays than it ever has been for Pentax. They may as well just do it. Using the 24MP D610/A7 Sony sensor, which seems to perform well and must be available in volume by now, would seem a low cost and low risk way to go.
05-23-2014, 07:15 PM - 1 Like   #63
Site Supporter
Clinton's Avatar

Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Salt Lake City, UT
Photos: Gallery | Albums
Posts: 1,824
This thread is only at 5 pages? I'm disappointed. I was hoping for more unsubstantiated facts.
05-23-2014, 07:36 PM   #64
Loyal Site Supporter
monochrome's Avatar

Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Kirkwood (St. Louis) MO
Photos: Gallery | Albums
Posts: 19,973
QuoteOriginally posted by Clinton Quote
This thread is only at 5 pages? I'm disappointed. I was hoping for more unsubstantiated facts.
The many abnormalities of this thread make it alarmingly suggestive.

05-24-2014, 07:16 AM   #65
Senior Member




Join Date: Sep 2013
Photos: Albums
Posts: 128
QuoteOriginally posted by ChristianRock Quote
So, in short, this thread has been a bit of trollery (hopefully just well intentioned and from a mistake or misunderstanding).

I guess it's time that we just embrace the fact that Pentax has 3 lines of ILCs and that's going to be it.

For happy snappers who just want to take a small camera setup around and register their moments, there's the Q line.
For the enthusiasts, there's the APS-C (K) offerings.
And for the professionals, there's the 645 line.

And that's it. Embrace the APS-C, where Pentax pretty much rules the scene, or spend the money and go MF. Don't hold on for the 135 format because what kid of user would it target? For enthusiasts it would be overkill to support two different formats. And for pros it would take a lot of investment in new lenses to support a whole new system.
Yeah, but the enthusiast market is moving to full frame. Look at the Canon lineup, or the Sony lineup. The market is protean, not static.
05-24-2014, 12:35 PM - 1 Like   #66
Site Supporter
RGlasel's Avatar

Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Saskatoon
Photos: Gallery | Albums
Posts: 1,301
QuoteOriginally posted by easyreeder Quote
the enthusiast market is moving to full frame
I guess that depends on how you define enthusiast, and if that market as you define it is truly moving to FF, it might not be big enough to justify the entry of an entirely new product line. However, if Ricoh can manufacture a FF DSLR profitably, even if it only sells tens of thousands of them, a FF Pentax may be coming. To put some perspective on this:

According to CIPA, 63 million digital cameras were sold in 2013, 36% decrease from 2012, which was already 15% lower than 2011. 17 million interchangeable lens cameras were sold (27% of the total market) which is only a 15% decrease from 2012, and ILC sales in 2012 were actually up 28% over 2011. 13.8 million of the ILCs were DSLRs (80% which is consistent with 2012). Other sources indicate 90% or more of the DSLR market is APS-C, so total global market for FF cameras with mirrors is no more than 1.4 million cameras. Even if FF starts taking share away from APS-C, the DSLR market appears to have peaked in 2012 so FF numbers will remain small. Even in the unlikely event 100% of mirrorless sales are FF sensors, that market isn't going to reach 3 million units either.

The Americas account for 30% of total camera sales (this is consistent for at least a decade), and I would guess that North America accounts for 80% of that number, so just under 25% of the global total. Europe accounts for 33% which hasn't changed in 10 years. Japan's share has dropped from 20% to 9% in 10 years, but the rest of Asia has picked up the slack to now hold 24% and could easily be the largest region in a few years. Japan had a 42% increase in DSLR sales in 2013, the Americas was an 11% decrease and Europe and Asia were about 20% decreases. The overall market for DSLRs certainly isn't protean, and the market for mirrorless ILCs is tracking the DSLR market, so I don't know why anyone would expect any segment of the digital camera market to be rapidly changing form. Just because camera manufacturers are reinventing their marketing slogans every year, doesn't mean customers are being reinvented at the same rate.

Digital cameras are a very large, but declining and mature market. As a manufacturer, to grow your business you either steal customers away from competitors or milk existing customers for new revenue. The potential market for a new FF DSLR is going to be restricted to current owners of APS-C DSLRs with enough disposable income to upgrade. Current owners of FF DSLRs aren't going to throw away their gear to switch brands and new DSLR owners are far more likely to start with APS-C. Whatever size that market is, it is never going to be bigger than it was in 2012. If you look at Nikon and Canon's current market share in all DSLR formats, and the economic advantages of upgrading current FF product lines compared to manufacturing and marketing a new FF line, the question is, how many cameras do you need to sell to be profitable? No camera manufacturer executive will get the necessary capital to introduce a loss-leader for a niche market.

What is far more likely is that an executive at Ricoh Imaging is looking at the number of existing Pentax owners who will buy a Pentax FF if he can get the approval to build it. We have seen that a new MF camera can be built with parts from the main APS-C line, and priced to make a profit. But don't expect Ricoh to abandon its APS-C bread and butter to chase after 20,000 FF customers.
05-24-2014, 02:14 PM   #67
Pentaxian




Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: GMT +10
Photos: Albums
Posts: 10,720
QuoteOriginally posted by RGlasel Quote
But don't expect Ricoh to abandon its APS-C bread and butter to chase after 20,000 FF customers.
Very informative post.

But I don't think anyone expects Ricoh to abandon APS-C if they decide to also introduce a FF model. Any Ricoh FF will probably be in the lineup to just to give enthusiast (or maybe even pro) Pentax users more options, and perhaps keep APS-C users within the fold when they seek an upgrade path. In a fashion, a Pentax FF thus remains a way of still catering for the APS-C market, with APS-C as a gateway to a long-term relationship with the brand.

I also don't expect Ricoh would be thinking about rolling out 3 or 4 FF bodies, to completely match Nikon/Canon/Sony's full suite of FF options. I doubt they would be willing to commit the resources needed for something like that. Probably what's most likely would be a single D610/6D grade FF model in essentially a K-3 body.

Last edited by rawr; 05-24-2014 at 02:24 PM.
05-24-2014, 03:04 PM   #68
Senior Member




Join Date: Sep 2013
Photos: Albums
Posts: 128
QuoteOriginally posted by RGlasel Quote
I guess that depends on how you define enthusiast, and if that market as you define it is truly moving to FF, it might not be big enough to justify the entry of an entirely new product line. However, if Ricoh can manufacture a FF DSLR profitably, even if it only sells tens of thousands of them, a FF Pentax may be coming. To put some perspective on this...
Thanks for this informative post. I'm with you most of the time, but I'm not sure I see the ff camera is a huge leap. Rawr has a good read on that. The cameras that Pentax is competing against at the high end (the K3 or K5 line for instance) are and will increasingly be ff cameras. The K mount is a full frame mount. Yes, there are a gazillion old K mount lenses around, and yes, people will use them, but the majority of people who commit to a ff Pentax DSLR are also going to want a new lens, at least one and probably more. I seriously doubt people will pony up 2 grand + and then have no lens options but stuff they have from flea markets (as much fun as that stuff is). Rawr's prediction seems pretty much dead on to me. An ff model in an essentially K3 body. I could also see a mirrorless retro kind of ff. Something that's not going after the big guys just yet, while at the same time establishing the lens line and the market.


Last edited by easyreeder; 05-24-2014 at 05:49 PM.
05-24-2014, 04:25 PM   #69
Pentaxian




Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: GMT +10
Photos: Albums
Posts: 10,720
I also wonder what the APS-C/FF market will look like in 5 years time.

This has already been discussed in many, many threads ... but perhaps we are now really close to the point where the fabrication prices for FF are coming down (illustrated by Sony's A7 line), whilst the limit for good IQ out of high megapixel, high pixel density APS-C is really being reached (24MP K-3/D7100/A6000 DxOMark scores, esp for SNR, as a case in point). The two curves may be just about to cross, as it were - FF sensors getting cheaper, APS-C sensors running out of technical room to grow.

In five years time, maybe no-one will bother producing APS-C anymore, since the price/performance ratio in favour of APS-C may well have evaporated. So a foothold into FF today may be prudent for Ricoh.

Of course, others have also made predictions in the past of the demise of APS-C, like Bob Atkins very interesting article from 2004 The Future of Digital - Full Frame or APS-C?

QuoteQuote:
So what about APS-C (ca. 22mm x 15mm) as a digital format. Will it survive?

My guess is that it will be with us for a while, but in the end it will fade out. Why? Because nobody ever got rich by telling the American public that what they had was good enough and that they really didn't need anything better! If 24x36mm sensors had been available for the same price as 22x15mm sensors do you think anyone would have made a camera with the smaller sensor? "
05-24-2014, 08:24 PM   #70
Junior Member




Join Date: Mar 2014
Photos: Albums
Posts: 31
QuoteOriginally posted by rawr Quote
Of course, others have also made predictions in the past of the demise of APS-C, like Bob Atkins very interesting article from 2004 The Future of Digital - Full Frame or APS-C?
Haha... Sad but true. As Americans, we are ridiculous in this way.
06-03-2014, 12:10 AM   #71
Senior Member
Paul MaudDib's Avatar

Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Michigan
Posts: 292
That's a surprisingly prescient article, right down to telecompressors suddenly hitting the scene. And he's dead right that FF sensors are currently launching where APS-C used to be. He stated the cost of an APS-C DSLR was about $1500, nowadays that buys a full-frame Canon 6D. He did miss the advent of APS-C mode on FF bodies to enable an upgrade path with APS-C glass. His timeframes are just off a little bit, it actually took 10 year to get the cost down, but his megapixel estimates probably aren't real far off from 5 years ago.
06-03-2014, 06:41 PM   #72
Site Supporter




Join Date: Feb 2011
Posts: 4,893
He was wrong on the 'intrinsic noise of the smaller pixel', though, or at least the relevance of that point.
06-03-2014, 07:28 PM   #73
Site Supporter




Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: North
Photos: Gallery
Posts: 3,868
I keep seeing the comment that Pentax has not enough FF lenses.
I have been using the FA limiteds on the Sony A7 for close to half a year now.
There are no issues with using them on FF (in fact they are great)
Then there are the F100/2.8 macro, FA*200, F*300 which work fine too and by extension the DA* versions.

So Pentax only needs to provide a 28-24mm or a UWA zoom lens on the launch of Pentax FF.
But to me, this year is the final year of believing it will/can happen.
If a Pentax FF does not come out this year, I think it won't, since Pentax has had all the time to consider this move, and even Ricoh has had a good 2 yrs to think over this too.

If they don't want to do a FF camera, then they need a better focus on the lenses for aps-c like what Fuji is doing right now.
Dedicated lenses for the aps-c image circle which are smallish, fast and pretty sharp from wide open.
06-07-2014, 10:59 AM   #74
New Member




Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 5
Nikon d800 went on sale in March 2012 at a price of $ 3000. 36 megapixels, iso 25600 and large dynamic range roughly describe its ability.
Between the announcement of d800 and Photokina 2014 there is more than two and a half years. It can be assumed that if the number of megapixels, DR and price will remain unchanged then iso will increase (and improve) of at least + 1,5 EV.
At least the same parameters must be FF Pentax in the same price.

So Pentax FF: $ 3000, ISO 76800, resolution 7360 x 4912.

And Pentax MF: $ 8500, ISO 76800 + 1,33 EV, resolution 8256 x 6192.

(in terms of iso of course there is little difference between 5.3 microns vs 4.8 microns; but on the other hand also sensor advancement Apr 15 vs Sep 21)


+ fps + size + weight + max shutter speed + built in flash + lens prices...

What parameters and price for FF Pentax could be competitive to canikon and at the same time logical compared to 645Z ?
06-07-2014, 01:11 PM   #75
Pentaxian




Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Slovenia
Photos: Gallery
Posts: 2,163
QuoteOriginally posted by unapye Quote
Nikon d800 went on sale in March 2012 at a price of $ 3000. 36 megapixels, iso 25600 and large dynamic range roughly describe its ability.
Between the announcement of d800 and Photokina 2014 there is more than two and a half years. It can be assumed that if the number of megapixels, DR and price will remain unchanged then iso will increase (and improve) of at least + 1,5 EV.
I think you're overestimating technological progress a bit. 0.3-0.5 EV would be more realistic.
Reply

Bookmarks
  • Submit Thread to Facebook Facebook
  • Submit Thread to Twitter Twitter
  • Submit Thread to Digg Digg
Tags - Make this thread easier to find by adding keywords to it!
24x36mm, chasseur, chasseur d'images, d'images announces pentax, ff, full-frame, magazine, pentax, pentax ff, photokina
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Chasseur D'images tests K30 :0) Scores 5/5 solar1 Pentax K-30 & K-50 4 07-31-2012 01:12 PM
Chasseur d'Images KX Review thibs Pentax News and Rumors 7 12-22-2009 02:36 AM
K-x review in Chasseur d'Images sceduled for next month but... 5 stars already !! thibs Pentax News and Rumors 1 11-29-2009 04:11 AM
Chasseur d'Images test of 20 Pentax lenses on the K20D thibs Photographic Industry and Professionals 47 06-24-2009 06:14 AM
Pentax 645D in "Chasseur d'Images" April Issue benjikan Pentax Medium Format 7 03-26-2007 07:43 PM



All times are GMT -7. The time now is 10:34 PM. | See also: NikonForums.com, CanonForums.com part of our network of photo forums!
  • Red (Default)
  • Green
  • Gray
  • Dark
  • Dark Yellow
  • Dark Blue
  • Old Red
  • Old Green
  • Old Gray
  • Dial-Up Style
Hello! It's great to see you back on the forum! Have you considered joining the community?
register
Creating a FREE ACCOUNT takes under a minute, removes ads, and lets you post! [Dismiss]
Top