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07-13-2014, 09:17 PM   #196
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QuoteOriginally posted by philbaum Quote
Down market meaning that DSLR shipments are down 19.5 percent for the first 5 mo. of 2014 from 2013.
Revenue from ILC's has been up for each of the past seven years. I know DSLR revenue is down ~10% for 2014 but I think MILC revenue might be making up for it.

07-13-2014, 11:53 PM - 1 Like   #197
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QuoteOriginally posted by philbaum Quote
Obviously they will have a FF mirrorless announcement at Photokina called the K1M
for mirrorless.
[....]
Anything else would be boring in a down market like this. It will sell in droves.
If such a camera would "sell in droves" we'd have one already. Yet we don't
I'm afraid there is no "obvious" and "easy" solution, no product which would sell by itself and generate lots of profit. I'm afraid "an up-spec'd mirrorless FF camera" is not so easy to sell - not against Sony's marketing machine, and cannot support itself; we should not think of it in isolation, but as a part of a system comprising more affordable, APS-C models and lenses.

Besides, DSLRs are still going strong (several times the size of the MILC market) and Pentax is growing despite the CIPA figures. It would be too early to give up on DSLRs, for the privilege of competing with several electronic giants on a small market for bottom prices

By the way, I'm fine with "boring", if by that you mean the kind of Pentax products I like. A hedgehog-shaped camera (spikes included) would definitely not be boring, but who would want to use that? (mirrorless cameras are slightly better )
07-13-2014, 11:54 PM   #198
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QuoteOriginally posted by normhead Quote
I can see the invitations now... "Will you come to my party on Friday night? And bring your Pentax."
You've just reminded me of this (now) old song:
"You must have been Miss Pennsylvania
With all this pulchritude.
How come you always load your Pentax
When I'm in the nude?
We oughta have a birthday party,
And you can wear you birthday clothes
We can hit the floor
And go explore those
Popsicle toes."
If you think that's dodgy, you should check out the rest of it, but the point is who else but Pentax could have featured in a popular song? Canon, Nikon, Leica? None of them scans as well, in rhyme. It'd never go down well (and I did think about that expression before I wrote it) in some parts of North America, but I reckon a marketing campaign based around this and Sam Haskins would get you noticed, if nothing else.

Last edited by RobA_Oz; 07-14-2014 at 03:30 AM.
07-14-2014, 02:50 AM   #199
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QuoteOriginally posted by philbaum Quote
Obviously they will have a FF mirrorless announcement at Photokina called the K1M
for mirrorless.

K mount, 24mp, quiet shutter, which has become a Pentax tradition.

It will be WR and attract Sony customers, disappointed by lack of FE native lenses.

Lacking an OVF, it will have EVF in the upper left corner of the back side. About the same size of the K3 but shorter on the height. Customers will remark on its lighter weight.

It will be price competitive with the D610 and the Sony A7.

Anything else would be boring in a down market like this. It will sell in droves.
Oh boy I hope they hire Frank Ehners as designer......

07-14-2014, 05:04 AM - 1 Like   #200
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I would like a FF Pentax, a little bigger camera than K-3, with a big deep grip, with no more than 24Mp sensor. Personally, I don't care that Canon and Nikon already has such cameras, because I'm a Pentax user, only. I don't want to make a collection of all sort of cameras and lenses.

If Pentax decide to make a mirrorless FF, no problem from me, as long is a camera that can be hold steadily in the hands, with a big lens, mounted on it. I think that asking for a Sony A7 clone is not the right way. I have tried that A7 in a store, and is an ergonomic nightmare.

What's the sense of a small camera, which can be carry easy, if I can't keep it in my hands firmly? Especially if it has a lot of Mp, and any small movement will be seen on the picture.

What's the sense of a small camera, if I have to mount on it lenses that are bigger than it, maybe two fold, or more?

I will be glad if in the coming years I will see professional photographers on sport events, with Pentax FF and Pentax long, and fast lenses, like Canon and Nikon today.



PS. For people who wants small cameras, there are a lot of smartphones around.

Last edited by JimmyDranox; 07-14-2014 at 05:11 AM.
07-14-2014, 05:17 AM   #201
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QuoteOriginally posted by philbaum Quote
Obviously they will have a FF mirrorless announcement at Photokina called the K1M
for mirrorless.

K mount, 24mp, quiet shutter, which has become a Pentax tradition.

It will be WR and attract Sony customers, disappointed by lack of FE native lenses.

Lacking an OVF, it will have EVF in the upper left corner of the back side. About the same size of the K3 but shorter on the height. Customers will remark on its lighter weight.

It will be price competitive with the D610 and the Sony A7.

Anything else would be boring in a down market like this. It will sell in droves.
...With an empty mirrorbox la K-01?! Bleh...
07-14-2014, 07:35 AM   #202
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QuoteOriginally posted by ElJamoquio Quote
Revenue from ILC's has been up for each of the past seven years. I know DSLR revenue is down ~10% for 2014 but I think MILC revenue might be making up for it.
Checking the 2013 Shipment revenue numbers here: http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/s-201401_e.pdf
so 2013 total ILC revenue is down 9.5%. For the first 5 mo. of 2014, its only down 5.5%, if you want to hang your hat on that one.

But yes you're right, mirrorless is helping to mitigate the revenue loss of dslrs. In Japan, mirrorless numbers are 60 % of dslr numbers, the highest of any other market per cipa.

QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
If such a camera would "sell in droves" we'd have one already. Yet we don't
I'm afraid there is no "obvious" and "easy" solution, no product which would sell by itself and generate lots of profit. I'm afraid "an up-spec'd mirrorless FF camera" is not so easy to sell - not against Sony's marketing machine, and cannot support itself; we should not think of it in isolation, but as a part of a system comprising more affordable, APS-C models and lenses.

Besides, DSLRs are still going strong (several times the size of the MILC market) and Pentax is growing despite the CIPA figures. It would be too early to give up on DSLRs, for the privilege of competing with several electronic giants on a small market for bottom prices

By the way, I'm fine with "boring", if by that you mean the kind of Pentax products I like. A hedgehog-shaped camera (spikes included) would definitely not be boring, but who would want to use that? (mirrorless cameras are slightly better )
I get your point, but each of us often put out the details of the kind of camera we would like the next time around - so i did that and sure, i would buy it. I'm not interested in buying a camera above $2000, but get it into the D610, A7 range, and i would be interested. None of us, or maybe most of us do not know the exact wholesale cost of our cameras, but i assume that a mirrorless FF camera could be made for less cost than a DSLR FF. Thats why i asked for the mirrorless FF version. It amuses me when people ask for a full decked out camera and then add a low cost clause. Not going to happen.

QuoteOriginally posted by JimmyDranox Quote
I would like a FF Pentax, a little bigger camera than K-3, with a big deep grip, with no more than 24Mp sensor. Personally, I don't care that Canon and Nikon already has such cameras, because I'm a Pentax user, only. I don't want to make a collection of all sort of cameras and lenses.

If Pentax decide to make a mirrorless FF, no problem from me, as long is a camera that can be hold steadily in the hands, with a big lens, mounted on it. I think that asking for a Sony A7 clone is not the right way. I have tried that A7 in a store, and is an ergonomic nightmare.

What's the sense of a small camera, which can be carry easy, if I can't keep it in my hands firmly? Especially if it has a lot of Mp, and any small movement will be seen on the picture.

What's the sense of a small camera, if I have to mount on it lenses that are bigger than it, maybe two fold, or more?

I will be glad if in the coming years I will see professional photographers on sport events, with Pentax FF and Pentax long, and fast lenses, like Canon and Nikon today.



PS. For people who wants small cameras, there are a lot of smartphones around.
I didn't ask for a low volume camera ala Nex. the body size would be the full registration distance of the K-mount, it would just be missing the pentaprism hump. so folks should be able to hold it just fine if they liked the K7/k5/k3 series.

QuoteOriginally posted by Clavius Quote
...With an empty mirrorbox la K-01?! Bleh...
I'd prefer no empty mirrorbox, ala Sony Nex design. Then provide an intelligent electronic K-mount adapter to make up the registration distance to use all my DA lenses. But figured that most Pentax users would not go for that. On the other hand, there are obviously many loyal K01 users, so it can't be all that bad. It'd be cool to use that empty mirror space for extra battery space :-)

Guys, thanks for the dialogue!!!
07-14-2014, 07:38 AM   #203
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QuoteOriginally posted by JimmyDranox Quote
I would like a FF Pentax, a little bigger camera than K-3, with a big deep grip, with no more than 24Mp sensor. Personally, I don't care that Canon and Nikon already has such cameras, because I'm a Pentax user, only. I don't want to make a collection of all sort of cameras and lenses.

If Pentax decide to make a mirrorless FF, no problem from me, as long is a camera that can be hold steadily in the hands, with a big lens, mounted on it. I think that asking for a Sony A7 clone is not the right way. I have tried that A7 in a store, and is an ergonomic nightmare.

What's the sense of a small camera, which can be carry easy, if I can't keep it in my hands firmly? Especially if it has a lot of Mp, and any small movement will be seen on the picture.

What's the sense of a small camera, if I have to mount on it lenses that are bigger than it, maybe two fold, or more?

I will be glad if in the coming years I will see professional photographers on sport events, with Pentax FF and Pentax long, and fast lenses, like Canon and Nikon today.



PS. For people who wants small cameras, there are a lot of smartphones around.

Just a flyer, but I wonder how a 645z approach would fare on FF if the whole thing - body as well as sensor - was sized down accordingly? You'd get a nice big tilting LCD on the back and two tripod points. Put in a 36 mpx sensor and a 200K-actuations shutter and you'd have a great landscape and tripod package which many more folks could afford than the exotically priced (by comparison) full-size 645. It would certainly be different, especially if they issued their own, top-notch adapter for 645 lenses. I think a problem with a "regular" 24 mpx FF is that it would be so close to the K3 and if they tried making a premium-priced item out of it then it would simply look overpriced compared both to the K3 and competitors (D610, 6D, etc).


Last edited by mecrox; 07-14-2014 at 07:45 AM.
07-14-2014, 08:06 AM   #204
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Just finished another Pentax monthly outing here.

Situation cannot be more dire.
15-16 'Pentaxians'; 4 guys on a PONY A7; at least 2 other guys I know thinking of jumping on the PONY.
That excludes one other guy who did not turn up (who is also using a PONY)
Then there are at least another 2 other guys who did not come for the outing, but I know who are looking out for real cheap 2nd hand PONYs
To make matters worse, it was 'PENTAX DAY" and top it off, we lost our flag bearer landscape shooter on the same day to Fuji X.
The latter posted so many great shots that it convinced many people about getting a Pentax over the years.



So money for the PONY this year means no money for Pentax K-FF this year.....
And Pentax still keeps us guessing....
07-14-2014, 08:22 AM   #205
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QuoteOriginally posted by philbaum Quote
For whatever reason, mirrorless camera sales are on the upswing. That would be where i would want new Pentax models.
The problem with your K-mount mirrorless suggestion is that mirrorless cameras with huge empty mirror boxes don't sell. Even Marc Newson couldn't make one that would sell well...

Also, even if they make an exact replica of the K-mount with a shorter distance, it would still be a different mount. Might as well make it all electronic instead of the current mechanically-driven aperture control.

Only the smaller, narrower MILC sell - and like NorthCoastGreg said, the companies that make them can't seem to make a profit yet. Sorry, but I hope Pentax never makes your camera. It could be such a huge loss driver that it would mean the end of Pentax.
07-14-2014, 08:43 AM   #206
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QuoteOriginally posted by pinholecam Quote
Situation cannot be more dire.
Sad happening.

The A7 PONY's I think were the tipping point for many. You could mount your Pentax glass on NEX easily enough before, of course, but the A7 family adds Pentax lens friendly options with FF sensor performance.

Without a FF of it's own arriving soon, Pentax is going to struggle to hold onto - or gain - enthusiast shooters like the ones described.
07-14-2014, 09:25 AM   #207
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QuoteOriginally posted by philbaum Quote
I get your point, but each of us often put out the details of the kind of camera we would like the next time around - so i did that and sure, i would buy it. I'm not interested in buying a camera above $2000, but get it into the D610, A7 range, and i would be interested. None of us, or maybe most of us do not know the exact wholesale cost of our cameras, but i assume that a mirrorless FF camera could be made for less cost than a DSLR FF. Thats why i asked for the mirrorless FF version. It amuses me when people ask for a full decked out camera and then add a low cost clause. Not going to happen.
I gave up thinking what I would like next (except for the better "full frame" optical viewfinder), because Pentax beats me at this game: they keep making cameras I want to buy

A single camera, perhaps; I can't say (and Sony cut corners in their A7 series, e.g. the "weather sealed" construction with light leaks). A mirrorless "full frame" camera to start a new system from scratch, with no APS-C users to support it, with no native lenses, with no 3rd-party support... I'm not so sure.
Besides, more expensive could also mean higher margins

I agree about "low cost" clause, and I see it as a sign that they're not prepared to pay what it's worth.
07-14-2014, 09:34 AM   #208
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QuoteOriginally posted by ChristianRock Quote
The problem with your K-mount mirrorless suggestion is that mirrorless cameras with huge empty mirror boxes don't sell. Even Marc Newson couldn't make one that would sell well...

Also, even if they make an exact replica of the K-mount with a shorter distance, it would still be a different mount. Might as well make it all electronic instead of the current mechanically-driven aperture control.

Only the smaller, narrower MILC sell - and like NorthCoastGreg said, the companies that make them can't seem to make a profit yet. Sorry, but I hope Pentax never makes your camera. It could be such a huge loss driver that it would mean the end of Pentax.
Einstein quote: Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, expecting a different result.

If you don't like my suggestion, what is your suggestion??? Marc Newson couldn't make the K01 work because, IMO, the K01 wasn't upscale enough. A mirrorless without a EVF is really handicapped for most serious photographers. Also at that time, the Nex cams all came with tilting LCD screens, EXCEPT for Pentax. In short, the K01 was not a serious competitor in the market place, with or without a Newson signature.

With regard to making a profit: I don't think thats true of Sony. Surely their sensor division is making a profit. They must have some promising data on mirrorless as well, otherwise, i doubt they would be chasing Nex designs so hard. But i doubt they will ever release that kind of market information. PinholeCam's report on his Pentax Club should be a wakeup call. The state of his club with several members switching over to pony A7, is actually what i've been thinking of doing as well. But i'll wait to see if there's any whiff of Pentax change at Photokina.
07-14-2014, 09:34 AM   #209
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QuoteOriginally posted by rawr Quote
Sad happening.

The A7 PONY's I think were the tipping point for many. You could mount your Pentax glass on NEX easily enough before, of course, but the A7 family adds Pentax lens friendly options with FF sensor performance.

Without a FF of it's own arriving soon, Pentax is going to struggle to hold onto - or gain - enthusiast shooters like the ones described.
It is going to happen as long as there is no FF in the Pentax arena and the PONY A7 is tempting for many who wanted a FF now. However, until we have a FF Pentax, the only option to use DA* or FA limited lenses on FF is to operate in manual focus mode (true?). I hope some day (perhaps sooner) we will see one from Pentax... for now, I am good with APS-C sensor.
07-14-2014, 10:00 AM   #210
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QuoteOriginally posted by pinholecam Quote
Just finished another Pentax monthly outing here.

Situation cannot be more dire.
15-16 'Pentaxians'; 4 guys on a PONY A7; at least 2 other guys I know thinking of jumping on the PONY.
That excludes one other guy who did not turn up (who is also using a PONY)
Then there are at least another 2 other guys who did not come for the outing, but I know who are looking out for real cheap 2nd hand PONYs
To make matters worse, it was 'PENTAX DAY" and top it off, we lost our flag bearer landscape shooter on the same day to Fuji X.
The latter posted so many great shots that it convinced many people about getting a Pentax over the years.



So money for the PONY this year means no money for Pentax K-FF this year.....
And Pentax still keeps us guessing....
Yes, Ebay. Plenty of segundo-mano NIKONY offers at the mo here as well for very tempting prices. No need to pay top dollar at all for body or lenses. NIKONY is a breed similar to the PONY but somewhat expanded round the middle from eating far too much hay. Pentax need more hay, though, before starvation sets in and the donkey farm hoves into view.
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