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07-14-2014, 10:05 AM - 1 Like   #211
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QuoteOriginally posted by pinholecam Quote
Just finished another Pentax monthly outing here.

Situation cannot be more dire.
15-16 'Pentaxians'; 4 guys on a PONY A7; at least 2 other guys I know thinking of jumping on the PONY.
That excludes one other guy who did not turn up (who is also using a PONY)
Then there are at least another 2 other guys who did not come for the outing, but I know who are looking out for real cheap 2nd hand PONYs
To make matters worse, it was 'PENTAX DAY" and top it off, we lost our flag bearer landscape shooter on the same day to Fuji X.
The latter posted so many great shots that it convinced many people about getting a Pentax over the years.



So money for the PONY this year means no money for Pentax K-FF this year.....
And Pentax still keeps us guessing....
I'm not sure the situation is dire for the Pentax photographers who want to go FF, it's perhaps dire from the point of view that we should all hang onto Pentax though..
Pentax decides wether we can shoot a Pentax FF camera or not, w don't. So when an opportunity like the Sony A7(r) comes along, enabling you to keep your Pentax mount lenses and still have a tremendous FF experience, it's hardly of interest to Pentax that those wanting to shoot FF go for the Sony. It's not a group of photographers that they are presently interested in. They are presently aiming for Apsc shooters and MF shooters. They won't lose any of those to Sony I believe.

I got a Sony A7r only a week ago, and although I had rather gone for a Pentax FF with OVF and native K-mount support, I know that such a camera is not anywhere to be seen yet. In the short time that I have had the A7r, I've completely fallen for this little powerhouse, that operates tremendously well with a quartet of Zeiss ZK lenses that I invested in waiting for the Pentax FF. Metering with the aperture set on the lens and the EVF compensating for loss of light at small apertures, leads to a terrific jump in spot on exposures. 100% magnification attributed to a customizable button leads to all shots 100% in focus. It's light, small but not too and very well built which makes it a perfect travel camera. The IQ that it produces with the Zeiss lenses is way beyond expectation. In other words: getting one after much hesitating is simply a revelation, so much so, that I now prefer it to a possible Pentax FF (which would be different if I wanted a FF camera for sports or action photography, or for use with AF lenses).

So from my point of view the situation is very rosy for those that want to shoot FF: they even have three options to go for now: 12, 24 and 36 mp! The situation is very rosy for Pentax also, they have a dedicated Apsc crowd and they are now tapping into a potentially large (new) MF crowd with their unbelievably competitive 645Z. They simply chose to skip the FF crowd, pragmatically no doubt, and for releasing the A7 series, I applaud Sony.

Chris


Last edited by Chris Mak; 07-14-2014 at 10:11 AM.
07-14-2014, 11:51 AM   #212
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QuoteOriginally posted by philbaum Quote
Checking the 2013 Shipment revenue numbers here: http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/s-201401_e.pdf
so 2013 total ILC revenue is down 9.5%. For the first 5 mo. of 2014, its only down 5.5%, if you want to hang your hat on that one.
Your link goes to lenses. Looking at interchangeable-lens-camera value, the revenue has gone up every year. 2014 might be different, who knows, but the $ market is expanding, even if the # market is contracted a bit.
07-14-2014, 01:03 PM   #213
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QuoteOriginally posted by ElJamoquio Quote
Your link goes to lenses. Looking at interchangeable-lens-camera value, the revenue has gone up every year. 2014 might be different, who knows, but the $ market is expanding, even if the # market is contracted a bit.
My reading - maybe I am mistaken though - of the CIPA stats is that ILC $ revenue from shipments peaked in 2012 and has declined since then, though that so far this year the revenue growth in shipments of MILCs means that the total ILC $ figures (i.e. MILCs + DSLRs) are about 1 per cent up on the same period as last year, 2013 - but ILCs generally are still down 18-19 per cent on "peak camera" of 2012 thanks to a decline in the DSLR side. Of course, this is all a bit notional since the real hard figure is sales totals and receipts which could be very different for all we know. Even so, if MILCs are selling well that is good news, surely, since a healthy industry is in everyone's interests. Revenue from MILC shipments so far this year are up on the same period in 2013 and 2012, too, so they are higher than ever by quite a bit. I guess the question is whether this is a long-term trend, ditto the decline in DSLR sales, because public tastes are changing. I wonder if anyone really knows. Must be causing some careful study in Japan.
07-14-2014, 01:08 PM   #214
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I wouldn't take too seriously the 2012 "peak"... DSLR manufacturers were expecting a growth of 30-something percents, and I very much doubt it happened.

07-14-2014, 01:28 PM   #215
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
I wouldn't take too seriously the 2012 "peak"... DSLR manufacturers were expecting a growth of 30-something percents, and I very much doubt it happened.
Yes, it all seems a bit of an aberration. However, that's what the CIPA figures say. if you believe the CIPA stuff then the camera folks still produced the goods and their overseas offices still ordered them for shipment whether or not they sold them, so at best they are sitting on a a glut of cameras which will take a long time to sell off, or get written off. Or some camera folks, anyway. In practice it really means just two companies if dealing only with DSLRs, maybe only one company. I'd guess that some perspiration may have been shed at Nikon.
07-14-2014, 01:46 PM   #216
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I see no reason not to believe the CIPA data, my guess is that indeed one or two companies were overambitious and produced/shipped more they could sell.
Most likely that also happened on the MILC market.
07-14-2014, 03:35 PM   #217
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QuoteOriginally posted by rawr Quote
Sad happening.

The A7 PONY's I think were the tipping point for many. You could mount your Pentax glass on NEX easily enough before, of course, but the A7 family adds Pentax lens friendly options with FF sensor performance.

Without a FF of it's own arriving soon, Pentax is going to struggle to hold onto - or gain - enthusiast shooters like the ones described.

Yes, its the tipping point and it happened faster than I thought.
One key reason being that the 2nd hand price of a PONY has hit around $900 (often with around $150 of freebies thrown in too)

Pentax losing a significant amount of its user base and it is a vicious cycle as the low user base won't attract more new users.
At best, it will be a realignment of user base as only those interested in a very good aps-c DSLR gravitate to Pentax and perhaps all others move away.
But, Pentax will bleed customers for the moment



QuoteOriginally posted by mecrox Quote
Yes, Ebay. Plenty of segundo-mano NIKONY offers at the mo here as well for very tempting prices. No need to pay top dollar at all for body or lenses. NIKONY is a breed similar to the PONY but somewhat expanded round the middle from eating far too much hay. Pentax need more hay, though, before starvation sets in and the donkey farm hoves into view.

Those are pushed down in price too.
The only thing stopping more folks going this route is the need to buy into a full set of lenses and many still want to try and stay on Pentax in some way.
Unfortunately, Pentax does not seem to want to address these customers


QuoteOriginally posted by Chris Mak Quote
I'm not sure the situation is dire for the Pentax photographers who want to go FF, it's perhaps dire from the point of view that we should all hang onto Pentax though..
Pentax decides wether we can shoot a Pentax FF camera or not, w don't. So when an opportunity like the Sony A7(r) comes along, enabling you to keep your Pentax mount lenses and still have a tremendous FF experience, it's hardly of interest to Pentax that those wanting to shoot FF go for the Sony. It's not a group of photographers that they are presently interested in. They are presently aiming for Apsc shooters and MF shooters. They won't lose any of those to Sony I believe.

I got a Sony A7r only a week ago, and although I had rather gone for a Pentax FF with OVF and native K-mount support, I know that such a camera is not anywhere to be seen yet. In the short time that I have had the A7r, I've completely fallen for this little powerhouse, that operates tremendously well with a quartet of Zeiss ZK lenses that I invested in waiting for the Pentax FF. Metering with the aperture set on the lens and the EVF compensating for loss of light at small apertures, leads to a terrific jump in spot on exposures. 100% magnification attributed to a customizable button leads to all shots 100% in focus. It's light, small but not too and very well built which makes it a perfect travel camera. The IQ that it produces with the Zeiss lenses is way beyond expectation. In other words: getting one after much hesitating is simply a revelation, so much so, that I now prefer it to a possible Pentax FF (which would be different if I wanted a FF camera for sports or action photography, or for use with AF lenses).

So from my point of view the situation is very rosy for those that want to shoot FF: they even have three options to go for now: 12, 24 and 36 mp! The situation is very rosy for Pentax also, they have a dedicated Apsc crowd and they are now tapping into a potentially large (new) MF crowd with their unbelievably competitive 645Z. They simply chose to skip the FF crowd, pragmatically no doubt, and for releasing the A7 series, I applaud Sony.

Chris
You are right in a way.
Sometimes, I think "Why should I bother"
I should be happy.
My lenses now work on a FF and I have no worries that my extensive range of Pentax lenses will not become obsolete.

But I like Pentax, its philosophy of making photographer orientated cameras/lenses, the smallish size of the system and the great lenses.
I sure hope they not just WIN in the apsc segment but in the FF one as well
Certainly, losing customers now as what is happening is not the way forward imo.


I too got a A7 for my Pentax lenses (which is why I term it PONY; even the SONY logo is covered up with a nice Aki Asahi leather cover; and of course, no Sony strap )
I'd still buy a Pentax FF if it comes out this year as I have enough good AF lenses to warrant it.
So I hope Pentax makes one and takes my money.
07-14-2014, 04:38 PM   #218
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QuoteOriginally posted by pinholecam Quote
[...]
Pentax losing a significant amount of its user base
[...]
But, Pentax will bleed customers for the moment
[...]
Certainly, losing customers now as what is happening is not the way forward imo.
You're saying this, yet Ricoh Imaging is reporting "increase in sales of digital cameras".

07-14-2014, 04:54 PM   #219
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We cannot quantify exactly if Pentax lose costumers because of A7, based only on a personal experience. I knew for an instance, that after the launch of K-3, a number of people migrate from other systems to Pentax.

About the sales? We must see that in May 2014, DSLR are still almost 4 fold more in volume than MILC, and the grows of the MILC is also corelated with the grows of sales in Asia, which is now the first market even without Japan, and with about 30% MILC. In 2012, the bigest market was Europe. And Europe and Americas are generally DSLR market, with less than 20% MILC, even close to 14%.
07-14-2014, 05:08 PM   #220
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
You're saying this, yet Ricoh Imaging is reporting "increase in sales of digital cameras".

That what I saw on Sunday during the outing and I reported it here.
5 of 16ppl.
And another 4 considering or waiting for a further price drop.

Maybe Pentax is indeed seeing increased sales.
But I can see for my own eyes that the user base here had been shrinking with the largest growth during the kx/k5 period.


I am on a large non Pentax orientated forum so things can look different from just a Pentax centric forum like PF, and I get to meet a large pentax user base over here too.
It's certainly no lone pentaxian keyboard warrior view that I am seeing from, but that like all things internet is up to interpretation

Last edited by pinholecam; 07-14-2014 at 06:50 PM.
07-14-2014, 06:52 PM   #221
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QuoteOriginally posted by JimmyDranox Quote
We cannot quantify exactly if Pentax lose costumers because of A7, based only on a personal experience. I knew for an instance, that after the launch of K-3, a number of people migrate from other systems to Pentax.

.
Thats partly true too, so the sum of the equation is hard to tell.
Its just that I would rather Pentax to have earned my money (and that of others) for that FF purchase and keep it profitable to make the cameras/lenses I prefer.
So get new ship jumpers from Canikony to K3 and keep existing users, that would be best imo.
07-14-2014, 09:00 PM - 1 Like   #222
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QuoteOriginally posted by aleonx3 Quote
the only option to use DA* or FA limited lenses on FF is to operate in manual focus mode (true?).
Yes.

Which means if you are a sports or wildlife or even live-music shooter (or just have not-so-good eyes and rely on AF), Pentax lenses on Sony A7/A7r/A7s does not offer you a great solution. Manual focus, manual aperture.

(Except the Sony solution does give you the improved sensitivity of a FF sensor, which may sometimes balance out the other disadvantages, depending on how you intend to use the camera).
07-15-2014, 01:42 AM   #223
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QuoteOriginally posted by pinholecam Quote
That what I saw on Sunday during the outing and I reported it here.
5 of 16ppl.
And another 4 considering or waiting for a further price drop.

Maybe Pentax is indeed seeing increased sales.
But I can see for my own eyes that the user base here had been shrinking with the largest growth during the kx/k5 period.
I'm sorry, but that's an uselessly small sample, and biased towards certain kind of photographers. Can't say anything about their user base trends from it.
People are coming and leaving, it's not a one way migration. I suppose people wanting a "full frame" camera and are fine with a MILC could jump to Sony. Others might jump to Pentax and cameras like the K-3.

I'm not saying everything is perfect. On the contrary, IMO they need a higher level camera, to keep high-spending people in.

P.S. "waiting for a further price drop"? The A7 is $1500, how much should it drop?
07-15-2014, 08:26 AM   #224
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QuoteOriginally posted by rawr Quote
Yes.

Which means if you are a sports or wildlife or even live-music shooter (or just have not-so-good eyes and rely on AF), Pentax lenses on Sony A7/A7r/A7s does not offer you a great solution. Manual focus, manual aperture.

(Except the Sony solution does give you the improved sensitivity of a FF sensor, which may sometimes balance out the other disadvantages, depending on how you intend to use the camera).
Thanks, rawr, I guess I will wait for Pentax FF whenever it becomes available...
07-15-2014, 08:57 AM   #225
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
I'm sorry, but that's an uselessly small sample, and biased towards certain kind of photographers. Can't say anything about their user base trends from it.
People are coming and leaving, it's not a one way migration. I suppose people wanting a "full frame" camera and are fine with a MILC could jump to Sony. Others might jump to Pentax and cameras like the K-3.

I'm not saying everything is perfect. On the contrary, IMO they need a higher level camera, to keep high-spending people in.

P.S. "waiting for a further price drop"? The A7 is $1500, how much should it drop?
The Sony A7 + kit lens here is now 1359 and body only 1159. Not much further to go and they will be hitting the magic 999.99, or someone else will get there first. Over the next couple of years I think it is bound to happen. Someone will try it even if only for reasons of predatory pricing.
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