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06-27-2014, 08:24 PM   #151
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The smartphone effect: Nc + Nn - Ng = Nt

QuoteOriginally posted by Ash Quote
That's a pretty clear point in my mind. But for some, there is still the firm belief that the tool is irrelevant. Results still need a tool to create it, so it does matter. Works of art can be made by skilled photographers with smartphones, but the quality of the result will be appreciably better with more sophisticated gear (to a point, and relevant to this thread, not greatly differentiated between results from an APS-C vs a FF camera).
It's quite possible that the smartphone-camera era we're still pretty much entering will end up delivering a sustained feed into more serious, 'traditional' photography that requires dedicated equipment - like a DSLR or larger-format MILC.

A percentage of folks who decide they really like what they can do with their smartphones (and realize they're kinda good at it) will start to feel a bit frustrated with it's limitations - and look for upgrades, look for extending heir hobby. It's possible that a lot of those people wouldn't have got into photography in the first place without that first smartphone taste.

Here's my formulation of the effect:

Nc + Nn - Ng = Nt

Nc: Number of 'current' serious shooters/enthusiasts/pros who sustain the industry now
Nn: New shooters who were brought in by smartphone photography and end up upgrading, who wouldn't have done so sans smartphone
Ng: Shooters who ditch their DSLR/MILC for a smartphone, or never upgrade again after DSLR/MILC dies because of smartphone
Nn: Net new 'serious/enthusiast/pro' shooters

Will Ng be large enough to bring Nt < Nc? Nikon/Canon/Pentax/Sony/Olympus really hopes not

.


Last edited by jsherman999; 06-27-2014 at 08:29 PM.
06-27-2014, 09:12 PM   #152
mee
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How is your smartphone's micro image sensor going to out resolve my APS-C or better sized sensor? I don't care if your smartphone produces 41MP images or does fancy schmancy 4k... That sensor used is still several times smaller than what I have on my 'dinosaur' DSLR and thus it will produce a better quality image.


People who buy P+Ss and now have a smartphone in place don't care about IQ or control over the image like we do. We're enthusiasts in this field. I see tons of poorly lit or practically non-lit photos through social media all the time with no complaints on the IQ or exposure for that matter. Throw those photos into this forum and you'd have people flailing with their arms.

I think we need to keep who we are in consideration..
06-28-2014, 02:03 AM   #153
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QuoteOriginally posted by jsherman999 Quote
It's quite possible that the smartphone-camera era we're still pretty much entering will end up delivering a sustained feed into more serious, 'traditional' photography that requires dedicated equipment - like a DSLR or larger-format MILC.

A percentage of folks who decide they really like what they can do with their smartphones (and realize they're kinda good at it) will start to feel a bit frustrated with it's limitations - and look for upgrades, look for extending heir hobby. It's possible that a lot of those people wouldn't have got into photography in the first place without that first smartphone taste.

Here's my formulation of the effect:

Nc + Nn - Ng = Nt

Nc: Number of 'current' serious shooters/enthusiasts/pros who sustain the industry now
Nn: New shooters who were brought in by smartphone photography and end up upgrading, who wouldn't have done so sans smartphone
Ng: Shooters who ditch their DSLR/MILC for a smartphone, or never upgrade again after DSLR/MILC dies because of smartphone
Nt: Net new 'serious/enthusiast/pro' shooters

Will Ng be large enough to bring Nt < Nc? Nikon/Canon/Pentax/Sony/Olympus really hopes not

.
I think this is a good way to look at it where Nc reached its peak in 2012 I think. Or maybe even is still growing by number off people, but only sales of camera units is dropping. I don't think so, but that lots off camera's are laying around never ever getting used again.

Currently Ng is bigger then Nn and the group off seriously shooters is shrinking. I also think that this is long before there is a new bottom reached. For that there are some other issues important. The move towards social media makes picturequality less important. The move towards sites as tumblre, pinterest and the like make that showing images is way more important then having topquality images that could make a sale, since no one is ever buying images almost.

Then your named group off camerabrands: Nikon/Canon/Pentax/Sony/Olympus
They also have one extra doom hanging in the cloud and that is GoPro with its need camera system. The way of experiencing life has changed and the traditional camera makers aren't growing with those new demands. Who needs an expensive camera that can't go with you when on vacation?
06-28-2014, 04:23 AM   #154
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QuoteOriginally posted by RonHendriks1966 Quote
I think this is a good way to look at it where Nc reached its peak in 2012 I think. Or maybe even is still growing by number off people, but only sales of camera units is dropping. I don't think so, but that lots off camera's are laying around never ever getting used again.

Currently Ng is bigger then Nn and the group off seriously shooters is shrinking. I also think that this is long before there is a new bottom reached. For that there are some other issues important. The move towards social media makes picturequality less important. The move towards sites as tumblre, pinterest and the like make that showing images is way more important then having topquality images that could make a sale, since no one is ever buying images almost.

Then your named group off camerabrands: Nikon/Canon/Pentax/Sony/Olympus
They also have one extra doom hanging in the cloud and that is GoPro with its need camera system. The way of experiencing life has changed and the traditional camera makers aren't growing with those new demands. Who needs an expensive camera that can't go with you when on vacation?
Yes, that puts it really well. Imagine a Pentax Q or Ricoh WG-4 but with GoPro's range of accessories and mounts, and with an operating system and remotes which enabled it to work hand-in-glove with a smartphone/tablet. Plus a dedicated website which gets away from "traditional camera" and "photography, man - heavy", which is what the GoPro site does. Oh well, I guess it's no surprise that the traditional camera-makers are making, er, traditional cameras but the world is changing and increasingly people are looking for something much more flexible, connected and just enjoyable to use. They like the immediacy - point, shoot, upload and share. And, also, something which allows spectacular angles, points of view and shooting situations which traditional cameras usually cannot manage, at least not without a great deal of hassle - head mounts, underwater housings, bendy gorilla grips, strapped to motorbikes or windsurfers, et al (many of them things which a smartphone cannot do or not without wrecking it very likely). I guess one could say that this is the last decade's contribution to "how we see" and naturally people want to be a part of it, not least because seeing together in the form of sharing is such a part of it. Some superb images have emerged from all of this and it's ridiculous to dismiss them as somehow not real photographs because they haven't been taken on a "proper camera".

And the cost? In many cases, less than the cost of a single Pentax DA Limited prime lens. Not the least of the problems facing the traditional camera companies is that they are pricing themselves out of their own market.

I realize that this could all be dismissed as twaddle and nothing to do with the traditional craft of photography. I'd partly agree with that too. However, camera-makers are businesses and they have to sell what people want to buy, and in huge volumes. Without the volume, the whole edifice starts to collapse: R&D goes down, prices go up, lens catalogues shrink, infrastructure shrinks so distribution, sales and repair facilities shrink too. The whole vicious circle. Without a mass-market sales machine driving a company, which too many photographers look down on rather snobbishly, your next Pentax K3, Nikon D810 or Pentax 645z would end up costing two or three times as much. Who wants that?


Last edited by mecrox; 06-28-2014 at 04:44 AM.
06-28-2014, 05:15 AM   #155
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QuoteOriginally posted by mee Quote
How is your smartphone's micro image sensor going to out resolve my APS-C or better sized sensor? I don't care if your smartphone produces 41MP images or does fancy schmancy 4k... That sensor used is still several times smaller than what I have on my 'dinosaur' DSLR and thus it will produce a better quality image.


People who buy P+Ss and now have a smartphone in place don't care about IQ or control over the image like we do. We're enthusiasts in this field. I see tons of poorly lit or practically non-lit photos through social media all the time with no complaints on the IQ or exposure for that matter. Throw those photos into this forum and you'd have people flailing with their arms.

I think we need to keep who we are in consideration..
Smartphones are the P&S of 2014.
https://www.pentaxforums.com/forums/169-pentax-full-frame/264686-full-frame-n...ml#post2862008
06-28-2014, 05:22 AM   #156
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QuoteOriginally posted by RonHendriks1966 Quote
I think this is a good way to look at it where Nc reached its peak in 2012 I think. Or maybe even is still growing by number off people, but only sales of camera units is dropping. I don't think so, but that lots off camera's are laying around never ever getting used again.

Currently Ng is bigger then Nn and the group off seriously shooters is shrinking. I also think that this is long before there is a new bottom reached. For that there are some other issues important. The move towards social media makes picturequality less important. The move towards sites as tumblre, pinterest and the like make that showing images is way more important then having topquality images that could make a sale, since no one is ever buying images almost.

Then your named group off camerabrands: Nikon/Canon/Pentax/Sony/Olympus
They also have one extra doom hanging in the cloud and that is GoPro with its need camera system. The way of experiencing life has changed and the traditional camera makers aren't growing with those new demands. Who needs an expensive camera that can't go with you when on vacation?
A part of the issue there is the cameras, like personal computers, have become 'good enough.' People get a big camera and stick with it longer. Or their smartphone is updated periodically and that is their upgrade. That is coupled with a LARGE used and refurbished market means there is going to be lesser interest in a brand new camera... at least on the entry level side.

The music industry is in a similar quandary though of not many sales (compared to 10 or 15 years ago) as the technology to make music is super cheap so everyone who wants to make music can. As a result, prices have come down and there are many sales throughout the year (esp on audio software). There is still innovation and new products but the level of 'good enough' has been achieved for many.

Don't believe the market is saturated in the music industry? Just try to think up a pseudoname for a music act.. I bet you will have a hard time finding one not used on soundcloud or discogs. Everyone and their brother can punch out a (amateuristic) song these days. And do.

All of the creative market that deals with electronic technology is in a similar state at the moment. We have achieved 'good enough' in most common fields it seems. Which is probably why, with photography, we are now seeing makers shrink their camera bodies or whole camera systems. There is a need by some to move the industry somewhere to keep it from stagnating or stalling. It doesn't mean the change is required or even desired by many, but the industry needs to innovate in some way.. and there it is for part of it.

---------- Post added 06-28-14 at 07:45 AM ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by jogiba Quote
You completely missed what I was saying in that post you quoted.


And smartphones are the P+S for a larger market in 2014 than they were in previous years. However, that doesn't mean P+S is completely dead. It just means the market will have to innovate in some way to stay relevant and will probably stay small (in market size). I think innovation comes in larger sensors and features. The low end P+S market might be dead (as I just wrote that part of the industry is at the 'good enough' stage), but the mid to upper tiers (or Point and Shoots) will just become more advanced for those who want more.

Wouldn't you rather have a pocketable camera with an APS-C or FF sensor than that (comparatively) huge Sony mirrorless kit you wield these days? Sure, you have the ability to change focal length, but it is unwieldy comparatively to a P+S form factor that you can carry on you at all times. I think we'll see more manual features added to P+S in the coming years.. essentially the P+S market and the Compact market will merge.

Smartphone makers largely aren't going to want to invest in much larger sensors or features for their devices since they are jack-of-all-trades, master of none devices. P+S form factor can still be the master of one. At least in the enthusiast portion of the industry (which is niche).

It will be interesting to see how it actually plays out in the next 5-10 years.

Last edited by mee; 06-28-2014 at 05:47 AM.
06-28-2014, 07:58 AM   #157
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QuoteQuote:
Wouldn't you rather have a pocketable camera with an APS-C or FF sensor than that (comparatively) huge Sony mirrorless kit you wield these days?
My 36mp FF with 35mm Zeiss FE wide angle lens does fit in my coat pocket with lens hood on. Show me another 36mp FF with finder that size.
in pocket
out of pocket
size comparison with K-3

Last edited by jogiba; 06-28-2014 at 08:18 AM.
06-28-2014, 08:34 AM   #158
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QuoteOriginally posted by jogiba Quote
My 36mp FF with 35mm Zeiss FE wide angle lens does fit in my coat pocket with lens hood on. Show me another 36mp FF with finder that size.
in pocket
out of pocket
size comparison with K-3

Yes, because everyone wears a vest with massive pockets.

Try fitting that camera into your front pants or shirt pocket... which is typically the average size of a pocket.

unless you just want to go this route:

06-28-2014, 08:48 AM   #159
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QuoteOriginally posted by mee Quote
Yes, because everyone wears a vest with massive pockets.

Try fitting that camera into your front pants or shirt pocket... which is typically the average size of a pocket.

unless you just want to go this route:
You really don't get it now do you. Again , show me a 36mp FF camera that small. I am waiting.
06-28-2014, 11:29 AM   #160
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QuoteOriginally posted by jogiba Quote
You really don't get it now do you. Again , show me a 36mp FF camera that small. I am waiting.
I don't believe you read my post otherwise you wouldn't have made such a statement as the above, quoted one.
06-28-2014, 12:31 PM   #161
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Still waiting.
06-28-2014, 01:11 PM   #162
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QuoteOriginally posted by Paul MaudDib Quote

I still think the excitement and then disappointment over the Nikon DF was the result of pent-up demand for a serious manual-focus DSLR body.

Epson went totally cheapo with the R-D1, it's literally just a Cosina Bessa rangefinder body with a digital sensor. They didn't even bother updating the shutter mechanism, it still depends on you cocking the shutter with a wind lever just like the film version. And the stupid things still sell for $1000+ even though they're a decade old at this point. Leica does the same thing - digital sensor awkwardly grafted on to their classic film bodies, and people buy them.

People want a camera for taking pictures, not for poking through menus. There's 100 years of ergonomic design that went into film bodies, and much of it was just thrown away when electronic cameras and autofocus became a thing.

I remain convinced that a "digital Pentax MX/ME" with a big, bright viewfinder, split-prism focus screen, tactile controls, and a full-frame sensor would be a serious seller. That pent-up demand for a photographer's dream camera is exactly what Fuji is tapping into with the X-series right now.


I would buy a Pentax version of the Fuji X, regardless of the price if I could use my existing lenses - full frame or not.
06-28-2014, 04:06 PM   #163
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QuoteOriginally posted by jogiba Quote
Still waiting.
Strawman argument mixed with not reading my post.
06-28-2014, 04:16 PM   #164
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QuoteOriginally posted by mee Quote
Strawman argument mixed with not reading my post.
Oh mee, just say it. The A7 is a mighty small camera given it's specs
06-28-2014, 04:26 PM   #165
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QuoteOriginally posted by eyeswideshut Quote
Oh mee, just say it. The A7 is a mighty small camera given it's specs

I'm sure it is a fantastic camera! I've seen the video of the A7R in low light and it is pretty remarkable. However, It is still massive compared to a true P+S or even Compact. No shrinking of the body is going to negate the lens jutting out at a 90 degree angle awkwardly and increasing the size 2x or more. The fact that jogiba is using a photographers vest with huge pouches in place of actual pockets further cements that notion.

But that is neither here nor there.. since I wasn't arguing that. For whatever reason jogiba has changed channels as my post to which he responded was about the future of photographic technology, not his beloved A7. Which, again, I'm sure is fantastic. But it is still relatively large!
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