Originally posted by RonHendriks1966 I think this is a good way to look at it where Nc reached its peak in 2012 I think. Or maybe even is still growing by number off people, but only sales of camera units is dropping. I don't think so, but that lots off camera's are laying around never ever getting used again.
Currently Ng is bigger then Nn and the group off seriously shooters is shrinking. I also think that this is long before there is a new bottom reached. For that there are some other issues important. The move towards social media makes picturequality less important. The move towards sites as tumblre, pinterest and the like make that showing images is way more important then having topquality images that could make a sale, since no one is ever buying images almost.
Then your named group off camerabrands: Nikon/Canon/Pentax/Sony/Olympus
They also have one extra doom hanging in the cloud and that is GoPro with its need camera system. The way of experiencing life has changed and the traditional camera makers aren't growing with those new demands. Who needs an expensive camera that can't go with you when on vacation?
A part of the issue there is the cameras, like personal computers, have become 'good enough.' People get a big camera and stick with it longer. Or their smartphone is updated periodically and that is their upgrade. That is coupled with a LARGE used and refurbished market means there is going to be lesser interest in a brand new camera... at least on the entry level side.
The music industry is in a similar quandary though of not many sales (compared to 10 or 15 years ago) as the technology to make music is super cheap so everyone who wants to make music can. As a result, prices have come down and there are many sales throughout the year (esp on audio software). There is still innovation and new products but the level of 'good enough' has been achieved for many.
Don't believe the market is saturated in the music industry? Just try to think up a pseudoname for a music act.. I bet you will have a hard time finding one not used on soundcloud or discogs. Everyone and their brother can punch out a (amateuristic) song these days. And do.
All of the creative market that deals with electronic technology is in a similar state at the moment. We have achieved 'good enough' in most common fields it seems. Which is probably why, with photography, we are now seeing makers shrink their camera bodies or whole camera systems. There is a need by some to move the industry somewhere to keep it from stagnating or stalling. It doesn't mean the change is required or even desired by many, but the industry needs to innovate in some way.. and there it is for part of it.
---------- Post added 06-28-14 at 07:45 AM ----------
Originally posted by jogiba You completely missed what I was saying in that post you quoted.
And smartphones are the P+S for a larger market in 2014 than they were in previous years. However, that doesn't mean P+S is completely dead. It just means the market will have to innovate in some way to stay relevant and will probably stay small (in market size). I think innovation comes in larger sensors and features. The low end P+S market might be dead (as I just wrote that part of the industry is at the 'good enough' stage), but the mid to upper tiers (or Point and Shoots) will just become more advanced for those who want more.
Wouldn't you rather have a pocketable camera with an APS-C or FF sensor than that (comparatively) huge Sony mirrorless kit you wield these days? Sure, you have the ability to change focal length, but it is unwieldy comparatively to a P+S form factor that you can carry on you at all times. I think we'll see more manual features added to P+S in the coming years.. essentially the P+S market and the Compact market will merge.
Smartphone makers largely aren't going to want to invest in much larger sensors or features for their devices since they are jack-of-all-trades, master of none devices. P+S form factor can still be the master of one. At least in the enthusiast portion of the industry (which is niche).
It will be interesting to see how it actually plays out in the next 5-10 years.