[mecrox]

Well, not quite late - they have the Q doing well enough, ILC and all that. They had the K01 which they learned something from. Also they are a late entrant to the FF DSLR arena, but several want them to do it anyway. Plus i'm sure Canikon and Pentax are learning what they can from Sony, Olympus and Panasonic experiences.


Looks like you got me on that one. Looking at the Japan sales market, i notice that MILC sales by unit are 62% of the DSLR unit sales for 2014 through May. That would have been a better example for me to quote :-) Although judging by Canon and Nikon actions, they don't appear concerned about selling FF DSLR models in the face of a growing milc presence in their own country. Its difficult to predict what's going to happen with this situation and when. One thing we know for sure, is that traditional camera makers were caught by surprise from the impact the smart phones had on their PS compact sales. So they are not blessed with super powers when it comes to forecasting - and they have a ton more data that most of us on this forum.

---------- Post added 07-07-14 at 01:12 AM ----------



Good points. I think its sort of useless to come out with a mirrorless APS Pentax camera at this point, since Sony and Canon and Fuji have that area covered.

However, i think a low priced but fully featured Mirrorless FF by Pentax would be niche product and would only have to compete with Sony. I'd buy that product. Mirrorless are supposed to be cheaper to make, so that should enable Pentax to keep the price low and yet still have good features. Perhaps they can come out with a FF DSLR and a second mirrorless FF model and let the chips fall where they may. At least that way i'd get my mirrorless FF :-).

The idea that the camera companies did not anticipate the extent of the impact of smartphones is a bit worrying. Pretty well world + dog must have seen that one coming. If the companies didn't get it then, will they get it now, I wonder, in the sense that continuing to produce costly boxes which aren't connected to modern "workflows" (of a tablet + Snapseed + network kind) isn't necessarily going to fly either. In this regard, perhaps it doesn't really matter what the camera companies produce for as long as they don't get it - high or low, it won't do well anyway.

Another thing which might affect the pace of innovation is inventory. Two years after peak DSLR and four years after Peak Camera, it's possible that the companies are sitting on warehouses of unsold inventory which they haven't really booked at a realistic figure in their accounts. So write-downs and losses are still not being owned up to. Maybe some of them got a little greedy and now have pretty unpleasant indigestion. A Mr T Hogan has an article looking at the recent CIPA stats.

Personally I hope that Ricoh produce something really good in the mirrorless line - though who knows what. And there is nothing to stop them producing bridge cameras with a 1" sensor, something of a bread-and-butter line, one would think. However, without a serious move by the companies to adapt the camera to the way people now use their electronics, it's hard to see anything wowing anyone all that much. That isn't going to apply nearly as much to enthusiasts, of course. They have their lenses and so a vested interest in a particular mount continuing; they know the tech and the terms and how to use their equipment in fully manual mode; and they are maybe pretty conservative in their buying habits, because the emphasis is on very high quality which "just works" predictably and well. However, I guess it is the 95 per cent of users not in this category who actually drive the industry. Interesting times, if a little scary. It's hard to believe all the companies are just going to carry on as if nothing much has happened.

[Kunzite]

Well, not quite late - they have the Q doing well enough, ILC and all that. They had the K01 which they learned something from. Also they are a late entrant to the FF DSLR arena, but several want them to do it anyway. Plus i'm sure Canikon and Pentax are learning what they can from Sony, Olympus and Panasonic experiences.

I don't mean it as "too late to do anything"; just that there's no reason to hurry being firsts because others got there. But of course they can enter a market without being firsts. They weren't first with the APS-C DSLRs, nor with the 645 digital line; they won't be the firsts with "full frame" nor with a dedicated large sensor MILC line.
Sorry for not being clear enough. I agree with what you said.

[ChristianRock]

The high grade glass used in pentaprism is a considerable cost, and as the manufacturing of the prism is done in several steps it add quite alot to the cost too. Using pentaprism in all cameras is one reason for Pentax not being able to compete on price with the cheapest DSLR on the market. I know that Pentax/Ricoh can't use magic to lower manufacturing cost.

The K500 was cheaper than the D3300 and the Canon SL1, so I'm not really understanding your point here.

[Fogel70]

The K500 was cheaper than the D3300 and the Canon SL1, so I'm not really understanding your point here.

Canikon has other DSLR to take care of lowest price range so they don't need to dump prices on these cameras right now, but when they do, they most likely reach lower price range than Ricoh/Pentax can with K500.

[ChristianRock]

Canikon has other DSLR to take care of lowest price range so they don't need to dump prices on these cameras right now, but when they do, they most likely reach lower price range than Ricoh/Pentax can with K500.

The K500 was selling for 379 with kit lens for a while, and has been selling for 399 at BH Photo for a while (I just checked, it's still there). I don't seen Canon or Nikon matching that with their APS-C DSLRs.

[pinholecam]

I return to the title of this thread "FF not practical in the Long Run?"

I think the sky is falling......and we are still pondering if FF will be practical or viable or coming out.....

Sony A7 2nd hand prices have been dropping here as the gadget chasers go for the latest and greatest (A7s)
$1000-$920 are now common with easily $150 worth of freebies like additional batteries, charger and even metabones (pricey) adapters.
Prices of the other canikon FF have also been pushed down because of this.

I don't know about the US, where each Pentaxian seems to be an individual staying far away from the next Pentaxian and interacting only via this forums.
Over here, its a small place and there is a community with regular outings, talking on the phone or messaging.
Certainly a good density of Pentaxians in a place and who communicate (also face to face) and know each other.
The ppl thinking of a FF and specifically an A7 has been large.
With the 2nd hand prices now, I think its getting too attractive. (and these folks I know, will buy, like they did all their Pentax stuff, not just talk)
I fear we will lose more and more people over these few months.
And here we are... Pentax/Ricoh still playing non-commital games....and whether its 'worth it'.
Money spent on that A7 this year, means no money spent on the new K? that comes out later (may not even be a FF)

Its not the end of the world, but Pentax wouyld have lost customers and some revenue...

[Fogel70]

The K500 was selling for 379 with kit lens for a while, and has been selling for 399 at BH Photo for a while (I just checked, it's still there). I don't seen Canon or Nikon matching that with their APS-C DSLRs.

I can find a Canon DSLR sold with kit lens for $299 on B&H.
Amazon has a Nikon DSLR for $259 (body only).

[philbaum]

I return to the title of this thread "FF not practical in the Long Run?"

I think the sky is falling......and we are still pondering if FF will be practical or viable or coming out.....

Sony A7 2nd hand prices have been dropping here as the gadget chasers go for the latest and greatest (A7s)
$1000-$920 are now common with easily $150 worth of freebies like additional batteries, charger and even metabones (pricey) adapters.
Prices of the other canikon FF have also been pushed down because of this.

I don't know about the US, where each Pentaxian seems to be an individual staying far away from the next Pentaxian and interacting only via this forums.
Over here, its a small place and there is a community with regular outings, talking on the phone or messaging.
Certainly a good density of Pentaxians in a place and who communicate (also face to face) and know each outer.
The ppl thinking of a FF and specifically an A7 has been large.
With the 2nd hand prices now, I think its getting too attractive. (and these folks I know, will buy, like they did all their Pentax stuff, not just talk)
I fear we will lose more and more people over these few months.
And here we are... Pentax/Ricoh still playing non-commital games....and whether its 'worth it'.
Money spent on that A7 this year, means no money spent on the new K? that comes out later (may not even be a FF)

Its not the end of the world, but Pentax wouyld have lost customers and some revenue...

Thanks for the interesting post. The only quibble i would have is that you blamed the soft market on gearheads chasing the A7s. I can't prove it, but my opinion is that there are simply too many dslrs out there for the number of customers. Take me for example, i have 2 perfectly running DSLRs and 2 more mirrorless APS cameras, and don't need another one

Looking at BHPhoto and Amazon, they offer to buy your old A7 and Nex 5r and several others, if you are trading up for a more expensive Sony mirrorless. What that tells me, i think, is that they are having trouble moving stock up and down the dslr line. Canon also has rebates on its DSLRs, including FF.

Maybe they are trying to clean out leftover stock before photokina so that their new models get more orders from the retailers. We live in interesting times :-)

[mecrox]

Thanks for the interesting post. The only quibble i would have is that you blamed the soft market on gearheads chasing the A7s. I can't prove it, but my opinion is that there are simply too many dslrs out there for the number of customers. Take me for example, i have 2 perfectly running DSLRs and 2 more mirrorless APS cameras, and don't need another one

Looking at BHPhoto and Amazon, they offer to buy your old A7 and Nex 5r and several others, if you are trading up for a more expensive Sony mirrorless. What that tells me, i think, is that they are having trouble moving stock up and down the dslr line. Canon also has rebates on its DSLRs, including FF.

Maybe they are trying to clean out leftover stock before photokina so that their new models get more orders from the retailers. We live in interesting times :-)

Round here, about the country's largest electrical retail chain is still selling side by side the D3100, D3200 and D3300, the D5200 and D5300, the D7000 and D7100 - etc, etc. One of the country's largest online camera sales operations is doing exactly the same, listing no less than 40 Nikon DSLRs alone. Quite a few are the same camera but in different kits, but even so that is a lot of cameras of just one type from one brand. I just had a look on their websites. I realize this "overstocking" may be patchy and vary from firm to firm or country to country, but we may have to wait for the flood waters to recede before the landscape becomes clear again. I mean, I can now buy a 24 mpx DSLR - a Nikon 3200 - for 279 pounds. Just how many consumers are going to spend 2-3 times that for a better model with deals like this around. A K3 or D7100 are getting on for 3-4 times more expensive. OK, we know they are vastly more capable and better built, but try explaining that to the broad mass of camera-buyers.

So I guess you are right: there are just too many DSLRs out there. And - I am just guessing - so long as they can be kept swirling around in the retail channel, the camera companies may be able to avoid having to book them at their true value which in reality is probably fire-sale if not landfill prices for some models.

Tom Hogan or maybe someone else made a good point: interesting new tech persuades people to buy new but often it also obsoletes the existing tech, so how do the camera companies keep consumers buying cameras without adding to the stock of unsold cameras from previous years. Contrast that with a more software-based approach. You can refresh existing hardware by updating the software for it when you don't feel it's the right moment to introduce new hardware.

[Rondec]

Thanks for the interesting post. The only quibble i would have is that you blamed the soft market on gearheads chasing the A7s. I can't prove it, but my opinion is that there are simply too many dslrs out there for the number of customers. Take me for example, i have 2 perfectly running DSLRs and 2 more mirrorless APS cameras, and don't need another one

Looking at BHPhoto and Amazon, they offer to buy your old A7 and Nex 5r and several others, if you are trading up for a more expensive Sony mirrorless. What that tells me, i think, is that they are having trouble moving stock up and down the dslr line. Canon also has rebates on its DSLRs, including FF.

Maybe they are trying to clean out leftover stock before photokina so that their new models get more orders from the retailers. We live in interesting times :-)

The biggest problem for camera companies is what to come out with next. Yes, you can add 4K video, or improve high iso slightly, or increase frame rate, or a bunch of other things, but are any of those killer features that make photographers run out in droves to upgrade? I remember when the K5 came out and the sensor was so much better than the K7 and K20 I owned that I had to get one. Maybe full frame, maybe better mirrorless are the answers they are looking for, but I just feel like what drives us in the forum is not the same thing that drives average folks in the general market.

My brother owns a D7000 and a couple of lenses (kit, 70-300, and 35mm f1.8). He is happy with his camera and won't upgrade for several years, whatever comes. Good enough is the enemy of everything else. You can talk sensors till you are blue in the face with someone who owns a Canon T1i and as long as they are happy with the shots they are getting, it won't make a difference.

Connectivity -- the ability to post your photos directly from your camera to facebook or Twitter, or wherever might drive some people to upgrade, but I don't know. It sure wouldn't drive me. I am super-compulsive about editing and working on photos prior to posting them. If I am just posting snaps, there is no reason not to just do that with my phone.

Anyway, a lot of babbling on there. I do think Pentax will have a hard time selling a K3 sequel to folks who own a K3, unless there is something dramatically different about it. I think there are folks who would upgrade for full frame. I know I would, but even the entry level APS-C cameras at this point are good enough that with a little skill you can take great shots with them.

[Clavius]

Some really good points here! Manufacturers should focus on features that would make us actually buy the new stuff.

Personally, size is what would make me switch cameras/systems again. And I know for a fact that it's important to a lot of consumers. For most, inclusing myself, even price is of lower importance. For some, excluding myself, even quality is less important. Packing a lot of punch in a compact system is important for a good reason. The shots I've missed because I left my big blobby DSLR at home are countless.

I own a A7r now and I'm very happy with its size. With some lenses I can even carry in my jacket pocket. The modern lenses for it though, are a bit big compared to some of my Pentax pancakes. A manufacturer with a history of making really good small primes would be able make its own iteration of the A7-system and vastly improve upon it too.

[mecrox]

Some really good points here! Manufacturers should focus on features that would make us actually buy the new stuff.

Personally, size is what would make me switch cameras/systems again. And I know for a fact that it's important to a lot of consumers. For most, inclusing myself, even price is of lower importance. For some, excluding myself, even quality is less important. Packing a lot of punch in a compact system is important for a good reason. The shots I've missed because I left my big blobby DSLR at home are countless.

I own a A7r now and I'm very happy with its size. With some lenses I can even carry in my jacket pocket. The modern lenses for it though, are a bit big compared to some of my Pentax pancakes. A manufacturer with a history of making really good small primes would be able make its own iteration of the A7-system and vastly improve upon it too.

Ah, the Pentax Pocki FF super compact pocket system, your Facebook-friendly, trouser-loving companion On the other hand, the shots I've missed because my mirrorless cams have lame AF and huge shutter lag are pretty numerous too. Ditto quite often fluffing the control buttons because they are too small for my fingers. I guess the important thing is that any new camera is done really really right. The general standard out there is so high now and there are so many choices that consumers can easily afford to be super maximum picky. In some ways I guess the best thing would be for all the camera-makers to shut down production for a year until the present glut of products has subsided. I doubt many at retail would even notice. However, the tragedy of the commons means that nothing of the kind will happen ...

[ChristianRock]

I can find a Canon DSLR sold with kit lens for $299 on B&H.
Amazon has a Nikon DSLR for $259 (body only).

So you wanna play games with that old, long discontinued, open box (kit box, no lens included) 12Mp Nikon? That's the same generation sensor from the Pentax K-x. And that 12Mp T3 that is *at least* 4 generations old now? It has a sensor that is outperformed by my 2008 K20D and can't come even close to competing with the K500.

You're off to my ignore list.

[Clavius]

Ah, the Pentax Pocki FF super compact pocket system, your Facebook-friendly, trouser-loving companion On the other hand, the shots I've missed because my mirrorless cams have lame AF and huge shutter lag are pretty numerous too.

Please do tell us about this facebook-friendly, trouser-loving camera with lame AF and huge shutter lag of yours. Because I'm thinking you don't have one.

I guess the important thing is that any new camera is done really really right. The general standard out there is so high now (?) and there are so many choices that consumers can easily afford to be super maximum picky. In some ways I guess the best thing would be for all the camera-makers to shut down production for a year until the present glut of products has subsided. I doubt many at retail would even notice. However, the tragedy of the commons means that nothing of the kind will happen ...

The standard is not high enough. Far from it. Smartphones are outperforming the classic digital cameras (both DSLR and mirrorless) in various topics already. Size, cost and connectivity being only the 3 most important examples. But ok, maybe interesting to observe, lets have the camera makers slack off some more untill the smartphones beat "real" cameras in IQ as well.

[Fogel70]

So you wanna play games with that old, long discontinued, open box (kit box, no lens included) 12Mp Nikon? That's the same generation sensor from the Pentax K-x. And that 12Mp T3 that is *at least* 4 generations old now? It has a sensor that is outperformed by my 2008 K20D and can't come even close to competing with the K500.

I don't think it matter much that it's old tech in these cameras for those buying them. For alot of users low price is the most important feauture on the camera. Coming from an old small sensor P&S or smartphone, any DSLR will be a huge upgrade.

Canon T3 is still one of the best selling DSLR. If K-x was still on the market and sold for $299 with kit lens, it would probably the best selling Pentax DSLR with a big margin.