Originally posted by jatrax Mark, I don't want to rain on your parade here but come on, 77% of PF members would buy a FF? We know the entire market for FF is less than 10%, some sources say less than 5%. Let's say that PF is a rabid hot bed of FF enthusiasts and double that to 20%. And I think that's reaching.
Your interpretation of the results is a bit optimistic, IMHO. I see no reason for members of this forum to be any more or less interested in FF than the general population of camera buyers. Which have voted with their money in the marketplace. In fact despite all the posts about FF, I would expect this forum to be LESS interested in a FF camera than the general population because anyone who genuinely needed a FF has already changed brands. Leaving only the portion of the FF crowd that want one instead of need one.
I think another equally valid interpretation is that out 65,000 odd members here only 161 cared enough about FF one way or the other to even vote. And 5 of those voted with the hopefully facetious "only if available in 47 colors".
Umm, no you did not. A realistic poll starts with a population and samples all entities in that population. Your poll started with a population and allowed only those entities in the population who were interested to vote.
So out of 65,000 users, 161 are interested and of those 124 would buy a FF. Maybe. I'm not saying my deliberately negative interpretation is correct, only that based on the poll as presented you can make any assumption you want.
Want a valid poll? Ask Adam to send an email to all members with a simple question: "Would you buy a Pentax FF camera?" It still will not be technically accurate but it will be more accurate than only asking those who are already interested if they are interested.
Sorry, but I'm going to disagree with you. A realistic poll does not necessarily start with a population and samples all entities in that population. In fact, it almost never starts with that outlook. Polling simply does not work that way. There's no way you could start with a population that includes people who have no interest in buying any camera and suggest you have to poll those people. You similarly cannot expect to run a poll with Canikon owners - You simply won't get an accurate result. Nor could you poll babies or members of the seeing eye dog society. Polling does not work that way.
Yes, of course my polling asks for answers from only those who care to vote. How do you think an election works? It collates votes only from those people who could care to vote. That's how democracy works. You don't have to believe me but, I can assure you that the upper and lower figures I give are not unrealistic - based on the data crunched already. As I have clearly pointed out, I don't have enough people taking part, at present, to make better assumptions from the data. That is why, for instance, the data says lower certainty 2,000 sales IF the price point is no more than the D750, upper certainty 8,500 people, IF the price point is no more than the D750.
We know that annually, there's currently 13,825,569 DSLR sales, worldwide. (CIPA stats) So, to use your 5% FF market segment figure, you're looking at nearly 700,000 FF sales per annum. So, you're assuming that it won't be possible for Ricoh to collar a tiny proportion of that market, over a number of years. Lets assume (and I have no data here, so this is pure assumption) that, of those members interested in buying a new FF camera, that those people would do so once in five years. So, using my completely "mad" figure of 21,500 (lower certainty) and 49,000 (upper certainty) figures who would buy a FF camera, then you're looking at, at most 9,800 cameras a year.
9,800 / 700,000 = 1.4% of the annual FF DSLR market, using your 5% figure. And, you consider those sort of percentages way over the top? The other manufacturers would sell 98.6% of FF DSLR's in the market if Ricoh/Pentax had a product in that market segment? I don't think so. So, if you consider my (admittedly incomplete) data wrong, that's your choice. But I ask that you put forth an alternative scenario rather than simply shooting down the proven statistical methods I'm employing to come up with some figures. (DSLR CIPA stats correctly given, for 2013 year) (Note too that DSLR sales are climbing while other digital camera sales are falling in relation to overall camera sales.)