Originally posted by philbaum Dividing the total worldwide sales in yen, of DSLRs by those sales of Mirrorless equals 29%. If one looks at total pieces sold, its over 30%. In any case, 30% of the market share lost to Canikon explains the interest by Canon to build a "large format" mirrorless as stated at this year's photokina. Not sure what size "large format" meant, but it can't be APS, since Canon's M mount already covers that.
Some people keep saying that mirrorless cameras are 5 to 10 years out of competing with DSLRs. I would say NO, its happening right now. With DSLR sales falling by double digits month on month from prior year, and mirrorless cameras up by single digits, one can only surmise that we are not even approaching a DSLR sales floor.
I think 2015 is going to be the year of the mirrorless. Most of the weaknesses of mirrorless cameras (speed/EVF refresh rates/AF) are simply a matter of processing power and we are about to see a huge step forward in processing power. Samsung is the first with the NX-1 and its 5 core ARM processor, but we will see a lot more companies changing over next year.
I just bought the Sony A7m2 and its AF speed (single shot) (Sony 55m F/1.8) is faster than my K-3 (31mm LTD). I have not tried continuous AF tracking yet, but the screw drive LTD lenses are not very fast or nearly a quiet. They Sony 55mm is silent. High end mirrorless cameras are already ahead of DSLRs in many ways. The A7m2 is more responsive than my Canon 5D or my Contax 645 and I used them professionally for years, so speed is really not the issue. Battery life is absolutely awful, but do you know how many times I had to change film in my 645 when shooting an event? Swapping a battery is quick and painless compared to film rolls and carrying 3 batteries is nothing like carrying 20 rolls of 220.
Originally posted by philbaum Given this sales trend for DSLRs, i think there's a small but credible chance that the Pentax FF will be mirrorless.
Why would any company build more FF DSLRs when the market for such cameras has been on an downhill slide for 2 years?
I have been saying this for 2 years now. The other question is why would you buy into a DSLR mount currently? I really liked the Nikon D750 and it checked off all the the boxes on my requirement list. There was just one issue. Why do I want to buy into a DSLR system right now? Is that the smart thing to do? If I shot sports or wildlife, then I would have a different point of view, but I don't.
My hope is that Ricoh/Pentax sees the light. They design a mirrorless D-LX with a new mount and a new line of lenses that have fast quiet AF. Take the best of the Fuji X-T1 and the Sony A7m2 and merge them into a new camera. Launch new versions of the 31mm, 43mm, & 77mm for a new D-LX and I think they will do very well.