Lens sales for FF.....

RonHendriks1966 · 12-09-2014, 01:37 PM

New figures from CIPA over october........

Always difficult to make something out of these figures, since there is a difference over shipment and sales and stocking overseas is also somehing in the picture.

But the sales of lenses for FF are declining by 5 % overall.......... So where are those sales of FF camera's? Or are they just going to do with their 24-105mm kitlens....

http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/s-201410_e.pdf

Total amount of dslr is also declining faster then mirrorless is growing...

http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d-201410_e.pdf

I guess the market wil keep going down a bit over the coming year.

Docrwm · 12-09-2014, 01:54 PM

But what is the decline in lens sales for all formats? With the significant increase in phone-based camera technology and the convenience factor, I bet that our cropped lens sales are down over the same period too, the real question is the rate across formats IMHO.

VoiceOfReason · 12-09-2014, 02:11 PM

I think most of what I have could work for FF already.

RonHendriks1966 · 12-09-2014, 02:26 PM

Originally posted by Docrwm

But what is the decline in lens sales for all formats?

For smaller formats then FF, then lens sales numbers are down by 16,5 %! Even more then for FF.

But the decline for FF means that either the FF format isn't growing anymore or that there is no growing need for more lenses.

So for those who where telling that the window was closing..........

Docrwm · 12-09-2014, 02:29 PM

Originally posted by RonHendriks1966

For smaller formats then FF, then lens sales numbers are down by 16,5 %! Even more then for FF.

But the decline for FF means that either the FF format isn't growing anymore or that there is no growing need for more lenses.

So for those who where telling that the window was closing..........

Thanks for the comparison #s. iPhones are killing camera sales.

i83N · 12-09-2014, 03:55 PM

It’s normal for any industries. Photography equipment innovations has reached it’s peak. Same was with HD TV, you don’t by new tv every year. Lenses always were long time investment, and as sensors became less nosier, more sharp and have enough Mpx for giant prints so time of using same body of camera became longer and longer. As smartphones get better as everyday camera, they will eat a lot of big cameras, like DSLR and EVIL, market space, as they did with P&S. EVIL cameras is the last segment to innovate this moment.

**hjoseph7** · 12-09-2014, 04:03 PM

"Total amount of dslr is also declining faster then mirrorless is growing..."

So is the price of semi-pro DSLR's. You notice how quickly the price dropped on the K3 !

RonHendriks1966 · 12-10-2014, 10:12 AM

Originally posted by hjoseph7

You notice how quickly the price dropped on the K3 !

Yes I adopted early on the K-3 (and never will do again).

aleonx3 · 12-10-2014, 10:30 AM

Originally posted by RonHendriks1966

Yes I adopted early on the K-3 (and never will do again).

Well, you are not alone... look at all those new Fuji APS-C cameras, they are in the 1200 dollar range... and even the Lumix bridge cameras, they are up in the 700 dollar range and people will pay more than I pay for my k-3.

reeftool · 12-13-2014, 01:16 PM - **1 Like**

My guess is that market saturation is the culprit. The boom days are over and while people will upgrade to new camera bodies every few years, a lens purchase is forever. (OK, maybe not forever but a very long time.)

Kunzite · 12-13-2014, 02:40 PM

Just a quick note - I don't think we should call them "lenses for FF". Indeed, they can and are used for both FF and crop cameras; so they are "FF lenses for FF and APS-C/DX"

The relevance of this - a significant number of FF lenses are bought to be used with APS-C/DX cameras (something we can easily see with Canikonians). So they might have been affected by the APS-C/DX camera market dynamics, more so than by the FF/FX one.

philbaum · 12-13-2014, 04:32 PM - **1 Like**

Thanks Ron for the links!

Dividing the total worldwide sales in yen, of DSLRs by those sales of Mirrorless equals 29%. If one looks at total pieces sold, its over 30%. In any case, 30% of the market share lost to Canikon explains the interest by Canon to build a "large format" mirrorless as stated at this year's photokina. Not sure what size "large format" meant, but it can't be APS, since Canon's M mount already covers that.

Some people keep saying that mirrorless cameras are 5 to 10 years out of competing with DSLRs. I would say NO, its happening right now. With DSLR sales falling by double digits month on month from prior year, and mirrorless cameras up by single digits, one can only surmise that we are not even approaching a DSLR sales floor.

Given this sales trend for DSLRs, i think there's a small but credible chance that the Pentax FF will be mirrorless.

Why would any company build more FF DSLRs when the market for such cameras has been on an downhill slide for 2 years?

Kunzite · 12-14-2014, 02:49 AM - **1 Like**

It sounds much worse than it is

Indeed, the DSLRs are falling double digits month on month from prior year. This is very different from falling double digits month on previous month... in the end, we're talking about a ~24% decrease in units, and ~20% in value for the entire year.
At such rates, it will take years until MILC sales will reach DSLR levels. There is no need to abandon K-mount - to abandon us - in a panic and go compete in an already crowded market.

About the chance that the Pentax FF will be mirrorless... just take a look at the two prototype lenses displayed at Photokina

**Rondec** · 12-14-2014, 03:58 AM

It doesn't surprise me a whole lot. Lens sales and body sales are two different things. I haven't bought any new lenses for the last two years because I have the glass that I need. If Pentax came out with a new version of the FA limiteds, I might think about it, but I wouldn't be in a hurry to replace what I have now. I think people change bodies more than they do lenses. If you own a 70-200 lens, even if Nikon releases a VR II, you aren't likely to drop 2K on it if your older lens is working fine.

Kunzite is right, too. A large number of full frame lenses are mounted on APS-C cameras (although you seldom see the reverse). It is difficult to know what to make of such numbers in this situation. Most high end glass from Canon and Nikon is full frame glass. If you are shooting an APS-C body and you want L lens type glass, it will be full frame compatible, even if you are shooting with a 7D.

Winder · 12-14-2014, 10:01 AM - **1 Like**

Originally posted by philbaum

Dividing the total worldwide sales in yen, of DSLRs by those sales of Mirrorless equals 29%. If one looks at total pieces sold, its over 30%. In any case, 30% of the market share lost to Canikon explains the interest by Canon to build a "large format" mirrorless as stated at this year's photokina. Not sure what size "large format" meant, but it can't be APS, since Canon's M mount already covers that.

Some people keep saying that mirrorless cameras are 5 to 10 years out of competing with DSLRs. I would say NO, its happening right now. With DSLR sales falling by double digits month on month from prior year, and mirrorless cameras up by single digits, one can only surmise that we are not even approaching a DSLR sales floor.

I think 2015 is going to be the year of the mirrorless. Most of the weaknesses of mirrorless cameras (speed/EVF refresh rates/AF) are simply a matter of processing power and we are about to see a huge step forward in processing power. Samsung is the first with the NX-1 and its 5 core ARM processor, but we will see a lot more companies changing over next year.

I just bought the Sony A7m2 and its AF speed (single shot) (Sony 55m F/1.8) is faster than my K-3 (31mm LTD). I have not tried continuous AF tracking yet, but the screw drive LTD lenses are not very fast or nearly a quiet. They Sony 55mm is silent. High end mirrorless cameras are already ahead of DSLRs in many ways. The A7m2 is more responsive than my Canon 5D or my Contax 645 and I used them professionally for years, so speed is really not the issue. Battery life is absolutely awful, but do you know how many times I had to change film in my 645 when shooting an event? Swapping a battery is quick and painless compared to film rolls and carrying 3 batteries is nothing like carrying 20 rolls of 220.

Originally posted by philbaum

Given this sales trend for DSLRs, i think there's a small but credible chance that the Pentax FF will be mirrorless.

Why would any company build more FF DSLRs when the market for such cameras has been on an downhill slide for 2 years?

I have been saying this for 2 years now. The other question is why would you buy into a DSLR mount currently? I really liked the Nikon D750 and it checked off all the the boxes on my requirement list. There was just one issue. Why do I want to buy into a DSLR system right now? Is that the smart thing to do? If I shot sports or wildlife, then I would have a different point of view, but I don't.

My hope is that Ricoh/Pentax sees the light. They design a mirrorless D-LX with a new mount and a new line of lenses that have fast quiet AF. Take the best of the Fuji X-T1 and the Sony A7m2 and merge them into a new camera. Launch new versions of the 31mm, 43mm, & 77mm for a new D-LX and I think they will do very well.

12-09-2014, 01:37 PM	#1
RonHendriks1966 Banned Join Date: Jan 2009 Photos: Gallery Posts: 9,675	Lens sales for FF..... New figures from CIPA over october........ Always difficult to make something out of these figures, since there is a difference over shipment and sales and stocking overseas is also somehing in the picture. But the sales of lenses for FF are declining by 5 % overall.......... So where are those sales of FF camera's? Or are they just going to do with their 24-105mm kitlens.... http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/s-201410_e.pdf Total amount of dslr is also declining faster then mirrorless is growing... http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d-201410_e.pdf I guess the market wil keep going down a bit over the coming year.

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12-09-2014, 01:54 PM	#2
Docrwm Veteran Member Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: Somewhere in the Southern US Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 12,285	But what is the decline in lens sales for all formats? With the significant increase in phone-based camera technology and the convenience factor, I bet that our cropped lens sales are down over the same period too, the real question is the rate across formats IMHO.

12-09-2014, 02:11 PM	#3
VoiceOfReason Site Supporter Join Date: Jun 2010 Location: Mishawaka IN area Photos: Albums Posts: 6,124	I think most of what I have could work for FF already.

12-09-2014, 02:26 PM	#4
RonHendriks1966 Banned Join Date: Jan 2009 Photos: Gallery Posts: 9,675 Original Poster	Originally posted by Docrwm But what is the decline in lens sales for all formats? For smaller formats then FF, then lens sales numbers are down by 16,5 %! Even more then for FF. But the decline for FF means that either the FF format isn't growing anymore or that there is no growing need for more lenses. So for those who where telling that the window was closing..........

12-09-2014, 02:29 PM	#5
Docrwm Veteran Member Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: Somewhere in the Southern US Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 12,285	Originally posted by RonHendriks1966 For smaller formats then FF, then lens sales numbers are down by 16,5 %! Even more then for FF. But the decline for FF means that either the FF format isn't growing anymore or that there is no growing need for more lenses. So for those who where telling that the window was closing.......... Thanks for the comparison #s. iPhones are killing camera sales.

12-09-2014, 03:55 PM	#6
i83N Veteran Member Join Date: Mar 2009 Location: Lithuania Photos: Gallery Posts: 1,203	It’s normal for any industries. Photography equipment innovations has reached it’s peak. Same was with HD TV, you don’t by new tv every year. Lenses always were long time investment, and as sensors became less nosier, more sharp and have enough Mpx for giant prints so time of using same body of camera became longer and longer. As smartphones get better as everyday camera, they will eat a lot of big cameras, like DSLR and EVIL, market space, as they did with P&S. EVIL cameras is the last segment to innovate this moment.

12-09-2014, 04:03 PM	#7
hjoseph7 Site Supporter Join Date: May 2014 Location: Minnesota Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 2,045	"Total amount of dslr is also declining faster then mirrorless is growing..." So is the price of semi-pro DSLR's. You notice how quickly the price dropped on the K3 !

12-10-2014, 10:12 AM	#8
RonHendriks1966 Banned Join Date: Jan 2009 Photos: Gallery Posts: 9,675 Original Poster	Originally posted by hjoseph7 You notice how quickly the price dropped on the K3 ! Yes I adopted early on the K-3 (and never will do again).

12-10-2014, 10:30 AM	#9
aleonx3 Veteran Member Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Brampton, Ontario Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 3,996	Originally posted by RonHendriks1966 Yes I adopted early on the K-3 (and never will do again). Well, you are not alone... look at all those new Fuji APS-C cameras, they are in the 1200 dollar range... and even the Lumix bridge cameras, they are up in the 700 dollar range and people will pay more than I pay for my k-3.

12-13-2014, 01:16 PM - 1 Like	#10
reeftool Pentaxian Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Upstate New York Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 9,552	My guess is that market saturation is the culprit. The boom days are over and while people will upgrade to new camera bodies every few years, a lens purchase is forever. (OK, maybe not forever but a very long time.)

12-13-2014, 02:40 PM	#11
Kunzite Pentaxian Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Romania Posts: 15,132	Just a quick note - I don't think we should call them "lenses for FF". Indeed, they can and are used for both FF and crop cameras; so they are "FF lenses for FF and APS-C/DX" The relevance of this - a significant number of FF lenses are bought to be used with APS-C/DX cameras (something we can easily see with Canikonians). So they might have been affected by the APS-C/DX camera market dynamics, more so than by the FF/FX one.

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12-13-2014, 04:32 PM - 1 Like	#12
philbaum Veteran Member Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: Port Townsend, Washington State, USA Posts: 3,659	Thanks Ron for the links! Dividing the total worldwide sales in yen, of DSLRs by those sales of Mirrorless equals 29%. If one looks at total pieces sold, its over 30%. In any case, 30% of the market share lost to Canikon explains the interest by Canon to build a "large format" mirrorless as stated at this year's photokina. Not sure what size "large format" meant, but it can't be APS, since Canon's M mount already covers that. Some people keep saying that mirrorless cameras are 5 to 10 years out of competing with DSLRs. I would say NO, its happening right now. With DSLR sales falling by double digits month on month from prior year, and mirrorless cameras up by single digits, one can only surmise that we are not even approaching a DSLR sales floor. Given this sales trend for DSLRs, i think there's a small but credible chance that the Pentax FF will be mirrorless. Why would any company build more FF DSLRs when the market for such cameras has been on an downhill slide for 2 years?

12-14-2014, 02:49 AM - 1 Like	#13
Kunzite Pentaxian Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Romania Posts: 15,132	It sounds much worse than it is Indeed, the DSLRs are falling double digits month on month from prior year. This is very different from falling double digits month on previous month... in the end, we're talking about a ~24% decrease in units, and ~20% in value for the entire year. At such rates, it will take years until MILC sales will reach DSLR levels. There is no need to abandon K-mount - to abandon us - in a panic and go compete in an already crowded market. About the chance that the Pentax FF will be mirrorless... just take a look at the two prototype lenses displayed at Photokina

12-14-2014, 03:58 AM	#14
Rondec Loyal Site Supporter Join Date: Mar 2009 Location: Gladys, Virginia Photos: Gallery Posts: 27,650	It doesn't surprise me a whole lot. Lens sales and body sales are two different things. I haven't bought any new lenses for the last two years because I have the glass that I need. If Pentax came out with a new version of the FA limiteds, I might think about it, but I wouldn't be in a hurry to replace what I have now. I think people change bodies more than they do lenses. If you own a 70-200 lens, even if Nikon releases a VR II, you aren't likely to drop 2K on it if your older lens is working fine. Kunzite is right, too. A large number of full frame lenses are mounted on APS-C cameras (although you seldom see the reverse). It is difficult to know what to make of such numbers in this situation. Most high end glass from Canon and Nikon is full frame glass. If you are shooting an APS-C body and you want L lens type glass, it will be full frame compatible, even if you are shooting with a 7D.

12-14-2014, 10:01 AM - 1 Like	#15
Winder Veteran Member Join Date: Apr 2010 Location: Tennessee Posts: 6,617	Originally posted by philbaum Dividing the total worldwide sales in yen, of DSLRs by those sales of Mirrorless equals 29%. If one looks at total pieces sold, its over 30%. In any case, 30% of the market share lost to Canikon explains the interest by Canon to build a "large format" mirrorless as stated at this year's photokina. Not sure what size "large format" meant, but it can't be APS, since Canon's M mount already covers that. Some people keep saying that mirrorless cameras are 5 to 10 years out of competing with DSLRs. I would say NO, its happening right now. With DSLR sales falling by double digits month on month from prior year, and mirrorless cameras up by single digits, one can only surmise that we are not even approaching a DSLR sales floor. I think 2015 is going to be the year of the mirrorless. Most of the weaknesses of mirrorless cameras (speed/EVF refresh rates/AF) are simply a matter of processing power and we are about to see a huge step forward in processing power. Samsung is the first with the NX-1 and its 5 core ARM processor, but we will see a lot more companies changing over next year. I just bought the Sony A7m2 and its AF speed (single shot) (Sony 55m F/1.8) is faster than my K-3 (31mm LTD). I have not tried continuous AF tracking yet, but the screw drive LTD lenses are not very fast or nearly a quiet. They Sony 55mm is silent. High end mirrorless cameras are already ahead of DSLRs in many ways. The A7m2 is more responsive than my Canon 5D or my Contax 645 and I used them professionally for years, so speed is really not the issue. Battery life is absolutely awful, but do you know how many times I had to change film in my 645 when shooting an event? Swapping a battery is quick and painless compared to film rolls and carrying 3 batteries is nothing like carrying 20 rolls of 220. Originally posted by philbaum Given this sales trend for DSLRs, i think there's a small but credible chance that the Pentax FF will be mirrorless. Why would any company build more FF DSLRs when the market for such cameras has been on an downhill slide for 2 years? I have been saying this for 2 years now. The other question is why would you buy into a DSLR mount currently? I really liked the Nikon D750 and it checked off all the the boxes on my requirement list. There was just one issue. Why do I want to buy into a DSLR system right now? Is that the smart thing to do? If I shot sports or wildlife, then I would have a different point of view, but I don't. My hope is that Ricoh/Pentax sees the light. They design a mirrorless D-LX with a new mount and a new line of lenses that have fast quiet AF. Take the best of the Fuji X-T1 and the Sony A7m2 and merge them into a new camera. Launch new versions of the 31mm, 43mm, & 77mm for a new D-LX and I think they will do very well.