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03-06-2015, 05:49 AM   #136
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QuoteOriginally posted by VoiceOfReason Quote
At that price point they may have you and some others here, but they will lose the vast majority of potential buyers. Think about it. You are in 645D territory at that price.
But it isn't just a matter of how many buyers there are of various types. It is also about how much they buy.

I guess that by the end of the year I will have spent 2 or 3 times as much on this year's D FA lenses as on the FF camera itself. Ricoh/Pentax probably hope to make a lot of money selling their new high-end lenses, and who are most likely to buy them?

(To afford all of this, I have started to sell my older equipment. I may have to sell some relatives too. That doesn't matter to Ricoh - it is what we buy, not what we already have, that matters most to them).

I don't think the 645D is a useful comparison. Surely it is common for new cameras of a given sensor size to encroach upon the territory of older cameras of larger sensor size? By launching the 645Z, which is accompanied by some lenses that cost far more than the new top-end D FA lenses, they have cleared space in which to sell high-spec K-mount systems.

03-06-2015, 06:14 AM   #137
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QuoteOriginally posted by ZeljkoS Quote
Sometimes people buy a camera with a name they don't recognize, but only if it's more expensive. Never if it's cheaper.
Perhaps, but that is one small target to aim for.
03-06-2015, 06:22 AM   #138
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QuoteOriginally posted by Barry Pearson Quote
But it isn't just a matter of how many buyers there are of various types. It is also about how much they buy.

I guess that by the end of the year I will have spent 2 or 3 times as much on this year's D FA lenses as on the FF camera itself. Ricoh/Pentax probably hope to make a lot of money selling their new high-end lenses, and who are most likely to buy them?

(To afford all of this, I have started to sell my older equipment. I may have to sell some relatives too. That doesn't matter to Ricoh - it is what we buy, not what we already have, that matters most to them).

I don't think the 645D is a useful comparison. Surely it is common for new cameras of a given sensor size to encroach upon the territory of older cameras of larger sensor size? By launching the 645Z, which is accompanied by some lenses that cost far more than the new top-end D FA lenses, they have cleared space in which to sell high-spec K-mount systems.
If I buy one I will fill in holes in the lineup of lenses I have, but again, I am looking at a completely different price point as are a number of people in here.

Also, almost no one will switch to the Pentax system with an entry fee of 3500 USD for just the body. They will stick with Canon and Nikon, where they are already invested.

I do have disposable income, or else I wouldn't have what I do, however I am not a pro. If I was going to spend 3500 on a single thing to feed one of my hobbies it would be a 12 inch telescope most likely. It wouldn't be a camera body. I can't see spending that much to maybe improve the pictures I take by 10%.
03-06-2015, 06:23 AM   #139
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What I'm hoping is that these new Pentax lenses will take advantage of new designs, new manufacturing processes that enable grinding lenses to really fine tolerances, that they are doing digital lenses to specs that will keep them relevant for the next 50 years, and that they cost a bit more because the are being made a bit better. If that's the case I'll consider them. But the Tammy is judged to be optically as good as the Nikon and Canon 70-200s, so if it's nothing special, I'll still be looking at the Tammy.

03-06-2015, 07:36 AM   #140
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QuoteOriginally posted by VoiceOfReason Quote
If I buy one I will fill in holes in the lineup of lenses I have, but again, I am looking at a completely different price point as are a number of people in here.

Also, almost no one will switch to the Pentax system with an entry fee of 3500 USD for just the body. They will stick with Canon and Nikon, where they are already invested.

I do have disposable income, or else I wouldn't have what I do, however I am not a pro. If I was going to spend 3500 on a single thing to feed one of my hobbies it would be a 12 inch telescope most likely. It wouldn't be a camera body. I can't see spending that much to maybe improve the pictures I take by 10%.
If that were a pitch to Ricoh about why they should aim at the price point you identified, it would not be a convincing pitch, would it? I'm sure you are good company, but it's not the company that is ideal for Ricoh!

I think there will be very few people with a significant investment in Canon or Nikon who would switch to Pentax for the FF camera, at virtually any price point.

I assume that Ricoh are targeting their FF range mainly at people with little dSLR-systems-investment (especially FF-investment) at the moment, and at the existing Pentax base. Then the question is: which subset of all those people would yield the best return on their investment? (They can't satisfy everyone). Should they start their FF range towards the top and work down over years, or start lower down and work upwards? The two lenses announced so far suggest that, at least for lenses, it is the former.

For information, I too am not a pro. I'm an amateur photographer and pensioner, simply one with different priorities. (Also for interest, I know more amateurs than professionals with 1Dx cameras! 2 to 1).
03-06-2015, 07:40 AM   #141
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QuoteOriginally posted by Barry Pearson Quote
If that were a pitch to Ricoh about why they should aim at the price point you identified, it would not be a convincing pitch, would it? I'm sure you are good company, but it's not the company that is ideal for Ricoh!

I think there will be very few people with a significant investment in Canon or Nikon who would switch to Pentax for the FF camera, at virtually any price point.

I assume that Ricoh are targeting their FF range mainly at people with little dSLR-systems-investment (especially FF-investment) at the moment, and at the existing Pentax base. Then the question is: which subset of all those people would yield the best return on their investment? (They can't satisfy everyone). Should they start their FF range towards the top and work down over years, or start lower down and work upwards? The two lenses announced so far suggest that, at least for lenses, it is the former.

For information, I too am not a pro. I'm an amateur photographer and pensioner, simply one with different priorities. (Also for interest, I know more amateurs than professionals with 1Dx cameras! 2 to 1).
Would they rather sell 10 of them at 3500 or 100 of them at 2000? Once someone has the body lenses generally follow due to them seeing imperfections magnified by the lenses they have.
03-06-2015, 08:03 AM   #142
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QuoteOriginally posted by VoiceOfReason Quote
Would they rather sell 10 of them at 3500 or 100 of them at 2000? Once someone has the body lenses generally follow due to them seeing imperfections magnified by the lenses they have.
It depends on the profit. 100 at a loss might not be a good idea! But, of course, neither of us has the knowledge needed to quote actual numbers, either of units or profits. And Ricoh aren't saying!

Remember my point about lenses bought this year. There are many people posting to Pentax forums who see an FF camera as a way to fully exploit old FF lenses, sometimes not from Pentax. (I'm not saying you are one of those people). Such people often swap notes on bargains in 2nd-hand lenses. Some of those people believe that Ricoh/Pentax should reward them for their loyalty. That doesn't sound like "loyalty" to me! They are barely visible to Ricoh.

(I sometimes wonder what other people do with their photographs. How challenging are those uses, and will they really reveal lens imperfections? I expect every photograph I use to be printable at A3+ and stand up to scrutiny. Frankly, my K-5IIs plus good DA(*) lenses could do that! I want to move onward from that, perhaps to A2, and have more keepers at wildlife, motor sports, and airshows, and more successes with my photos).
03-06-2015, 08:18 AM   #143
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Most probable scenario is that the price will be somewhat lower than Canikon top FF cameras, with comparable specs and something unique to Pentax, like the existing selectable AA function, and composition adjustment.

That would be ideal. Bad thing to do would be to offer lower spec at much lower price, that would not be interesting to people who actually have the money to buy it.

Probably something like $2800 at launch and $2200 - $2400 later on

03-06-2015, 08:21 AM   #144
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QuoteOriginally posted by Barry Pearson Quote
It depends on the profit. 100 at a loss might not be a good idea! But, of course, neither of us has the knowledge needed to quote actual numbers, either of units or profits. And Ricoh aren't saying!

Remember my point about lenses bought this year. There are many people posting to Pentax forums who see an FF camera as a way to fully exploit old FF lenses, sometimes not from Pentax. (I'm not saying you are one of those people). Such people often swap notes on bargains in 2nd-hand lenses. Some of those people believe that Ricoh/Pentax should reward them for their loyalty. That doesn't sound like "loyalty" to me! They are barely visible to Ricoh.

(I sometimes wonder what other people do with their photographs. How challenging are those uses, and will they really reveal lens imperfections? I expect every photograph I use to be printable at A3+ and stand up to scrutiny. Frankly, my K-5IIs plus good DA(*) lenses could do that! I want to move onward from that, perhaps to A2, and have more keepers at wildlife, motor sports, and airshows, and more successes with my photos).
I think that this is as close to a breakdown of what people would pay for FF. It would be interesting in do one, looking at just the body with no kit lenses. I do expect that whatever kit lens the FF would have is going to be a choice of a 24-70 f/2.8 AW or a 24-135 f/4 WR or a 28-90 f/3.5-4.5 WR, and add a minimum of 500 dollars to the kit if it is the latter.

If I were going to buy one I would probably look at something like the second lens I named to go with it for a nice WR kit, and yeah, that would likely push me north of 3k, but then again, I may just keep my K3 and DA18-135WR as my WR kit. If I got the FF I would also likely get the UWA zoom on the roadmap to fill in the wide side in my FF kit. If Pentax ever got a 150-600 WR lens that is FF compatible I would buy to replace my 150-500 most likely. So, I will buy a body around 2k. The 36mp sensor has been out a while, so the price is likely less, and we've seen what Pentax/Ricoh squeezes out of sensors. They have already developed the tech for the selectable AA filter using SR. Most of the features that will likely go into it are already out there. They simply need to put them together.

---------- Post added 03-06-15 at 10:22 AM ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by ZeljkoS Quote
Most probable scenario is that the price will be somewhat lower than Canikon top FF cameras, with comparable specs and something unique to Pentax, like the existing selectable AA function, and composition adjustment.

That would be ideal. Bad thing to do would be to offer lower spec at much lower price, that would not be interesting to people who actually have the money to buy it.

Probably something like $2800 at launch and $2200 - $2400 later on
From what they have said we can probably assume they will be using the 36mp Sony sensor. Their CP+ interview did say it was going to be in the 30-40mp range.
03-06-2015, 09:04 AM - 1 Like   #145
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QuoteOriginally posted by VoiceOfReason Quote
Would they rather sell 10 of them at 3500 or 100 of them at 2000? Once someone has the body lenses generally follow due to them seeing imperfections magnified by the lenses they have.
Sell what? It seems you're assuming that the same product can be made to be sold at $3500 in certain quantities, or at $2000 in volumes an order of magnitude larger. That's completely unrealistic IMHO.

If that were true, the same thing would've been available to all the others. Nikon would sell 10 times as many D810s, Canon, 10 times as many 5dMkIII/5DS - but they don't. Because it won't work.
And since it would be their first such product, Pentax doesn't have the same mechanisms (i.e. technology reuse, volume) as Canon/Nikon to build a cheap product.

Instead, we should discuss about two different products, one made to sell at $3500, and another, at $2000 (but please be aware that the higher figure is artificially inflated - Barry was talking U.K. prices). One would be a high-end beast on the same (or better) level as a D810, the other, a cheaper made D610 equivalent (not even D750).
03-06-2015, 09:09 AM   #146
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
Sell what? It seems you're assuming that the same product can be made to be sold at $3500 in certain quantities, or at $2000 in volumes an order of magnitude larger. That's completely unrealistic IMHO.

If that were true, the same thing would've been available to all the others. Nikon would sell 10 times as many D810s, Canon, 10 times as many 5dMkIII/5DS - but they don't. Because it won't work.
And since it would be their first such product, Pentax doesn't have the same mechanisms (i.e. technology reuse, volume) as Canon/Nikon to build a cheap product.

Instead, we should discuss about two different products, one made to sell at $3500, and another, at $2000 (but please be aware that the higher figure is artificially inflated - Barry was talking U.K. prices). One would be a high-end beast on the same (or better) level as a D810, the other, a cheaper made D610 equivalent (not even D750).
I'm now going to have to make a poll for price points for just a body. Also, at 3500 I would get a used 645D rather than an FF. At 2000 I would get the FF and some of the expensive lenses that will come for it.
03-06-2015, 09:34 AM   #147
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QuoteOriginally posted by VoiceOfReason Quote
I'm now going to have to make a poll for price points for just a body. Also, at 3500 I would get a used 645D rather than an FF. At 2000 I would get the FF and some of the expensive lenses that will come for it.
$3500 is too much, I agree. The D810 is too much in my opinion at $3200 CAD.

If Pentax spec it out to be a D810/5DMKIII competitor, it will be priced as such, not $2000. Its just unrealistic to think otherwise, period. This is not going to be a loss-leader for Pentax. It would be silly to think so.

I've said it a million times since the announcement. Prepare for a $2500-3000 price point if it's equipped with a 36mp sensor, $2000-2500 if equipped with a 24mp sensor. Since the rumor mill has pretty much settled on a 36mp sensor expect a $2500-3000 price point.


Technology costs money.... so lets add up what the general consensus of the rumor mill has spec'd this camera at:

1/8000" shutter
50-12800 native iso range
screw drive AF
in-lens motor AF contacts
upgraded AF system
hi-resolution tilt screen
in-body shake reduction
36mp sensor with crop function
radio trigger flash system *my theory*
built in WIFI and GPS radios
built in NFC (why not go all the way)
dual SD card slots
mufti-pattern white balance
Beyer array simulation
moire reduction

Doesn't sounds like a Nikon D610, Nikon D750, or Canon 6D competitor to me. Doesn't sounds like its going after the Sony A7 series either. Looks like they are targeting the Nikon D810 and Canon 5DMK3. Both of which are $3000 range cameras.

Then I start hearing the arguments of "Pentax wants to be competitive and will undercut the big two." and "Sony's A7R is not $3000, why does the Pentax have to be? Nikon priced the D810 at $3000 because of the name".

Pentax are not going to be moving these cameras at the same volume as Sony, Canon, or Nikon. They are a small player, Pentax/Ricoh knows this. So they will try and be as competitive as possible with the camera compared to the major players. But they are in this business to make money, so they will not make the flagship camera a loss leader and sell it for a minimal markup. They need to make a profit, and they need to allow the retailers to make a profit as well. I would bet that there is at least a 50% markup at the end of the day between the retailer and manufacture combined.

So if the A7r can be had for a bargain priced compared to the other 36mp camera out there, why can't Pentax? Especially with an "old" sensor. If it's the same sensor as the D810, okay sure its a year old already. But Sony makes the sensors. When they sell Nikon the chips for the D810 they charge them a markup on the part...and I bet you they mark it up handsomely. Does Sony give themselves the same markup on the same sensor? I'm going to guess a big fat no. That reduces costs as it is developed in house

You also will have to deal with consumer perception. As Pentax fans we will all know what the camera is and what it can do. As the average consumer that see's what appears to be an impressive spec chart that is arguing for attention with Nikon and Canon's pro-grade cameras but at an entry level (for full frame) price point, they will start wondering where have shortcuts been taken and then they may not even look at them. Pentax is not the brand it once was. They are underdogs now. Not a main player like they were in the film days. They cannot go on brand recognition like they used to. Many people don't even know that Pentax still exists. They cannot sell the camera on price alone.

It will be a great value for the money, but it will not be $2000.
03-06-2015, 09:41 AM   #148
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QuoteOriginally posted by Wired Quote
Beyer array simulation
What is that? Surely it will have a real Bayer array, not a simulated one?
03-06-2015, 09:42 AM   #149
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QuoteOriginally posted by Barry Pearson Quote
What is that? Surely it will have a real Bayer array, not a simulated one?
I probably got the wording wrong, but here is the rumor post


Ricoh to reveal new pixel/sensor shift technology for the Pentax full frame DSLR camera | Photo Rumors
03-06-2015, 10:09 AM   #150
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QuoteOriginally posted by Wired Quote
$3500 is too much, I agree. The D810 is too much in my opinion at $3200 CAD.
As Kunzite points out, in the UK we tend to have to pay more than elsewhere.

I've just spotted the D810 at 2299 at a good retailer, which a simple translator gives as about $3464. (That is where I got my numbers from; at the moment 1 = $1.5 approx). I do feel that the D810 specification is close to what I want.

Perhaps I'll change my budget to "up to 2300". I am deliberately playing safe rather than being optimistic. I would rather be delighted than disappointed when I learn the real price later in the year!

For interest, my guesses about the 3 D FA lenses on the roadmap are:
D FA* 15-30mm f/2.8: 1,000
D FA* 24-70mm f/2.8: 1,000 - 1,500
D FA 28-100mm f/3.5-f/5.6: 1,000

(I don't assume all 3 will become available this year, and I wouldn't buy them all even if they did. There is obviously overlap).
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