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03-08-2015, 09:25 AM   #181
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QuoteOriginally posted by VoiceOfReason Quote
If it is a 3k body then they will not have me as a customer for it. Yes, you can have good specs with a lower price. They can release a D810 spec camera at 2k and attract new customers for it, or they can release a D810 spec camera with new D810 prices and sell relatively few units, especially since by the time thye get around to releasing it Canon, Nikon, and Sony will have likely released their next set of bodies or at least released the specs and such on them along with dropping the price on the older ones. I can get a D800e for 2200 dollars. If I were a Nikon person why in the world would I look at Pentax with a 3k price for just the body when I have that available?

What you don't seem to understand is that you make a body to attract people and sell your high priced lenses since you now have them in your system. Why would anyone who is invested in a competitor FF system jump ship to one that has the same features their current system released a year or more previously with maybe a few tweaks, poor warranty and professional support compared to the big two, poor aftermarket support compared to the big two, etc. at the same entry price for a body?

Following the logic that Pentax has to sell at the same prices as the others means that the 645z should have been 20k or more. But hey, if you want to pay it then go for it. See the poll I created to check out what most Pentax users say about price though.
Agree. And there are four scenarios:

1) launch price is high and features are mediocre ==> another pentax ks1 or mx1, a failure and cannot sell ==> we will see deep drop in price after half year but still almost no one will use it.

2) launch price is low and features are not bad ==> pentax 645z ==> New market will be created due to unexpected demands. Market dominates. Price steady.

3) launch price is comparable and features are not bad ==> pentax k3 ==> steady sale but price will drop deeply due to competition and the market share will continue to drop.

4) launch price is comparable and features are advanced ==>another pentax k5,a good success ==> price can be steady for a while with good sale volume. Market share will increase.

Anyway, it depends on the quality and features of camera. It can be another k5, k3, 645z or ks-1. I will not worry too much about the launch price. If it is a bad product, one can soon buy it at half price like ks-1 as it will not sell at all.


Last edited by starjedi; 03-08-2015 at 09:30 AM.
03-08-2015, 09:41 AM - 2 Likes   #182
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I can not believe the number of people talking about D610s etc. cameras that really don't have much to offer over a K-3 and you lose a lot, in cropped image resolution. Half to 90% of Pentax users are not going to be interested in that FF feature set. They are not going to buy a Full Frame, just because it's full frame, unless you go to a high res pro type system, you get the guys who need pro gear, the high end amateurs and the guys who want the low light and narrow DoF performance, you get everyone. If Pentax goes 24 MP like a D610, well, I looked at a D610 and rejected, and i suspect a lot of other Pentax users would too.

Just in terms of offering an upgrade path, 36 Mp is kind of a minimum, and that means $2500 is pretty much a minimum. I can't believe how many of you don't seem to realize that for what I do, a D610 type camera is a downgrade. It has nothing to offer me, and costs me a lot in terms of having to buy more expensive lenses to get the FoV and magnification I want on wildlife images.
03-08-2015, 09:45 AM   #183
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Agree about the price. A 36MP sensor in late 2015 will be very old news. It will be hard to sell any new Pentax FF at a premium just because it's 36MP and a Pentax.

Keep the price above the A7r, but below the D810, pls.

Another thing to consider is what the price of a direct competitor like the D810 may be by the time the Pentax FF launches. Today we are seeing the D810 at US$2,996.95 after a $300 Nikon instant rebate. But by October 2015 the D810 would have been on the market for over a year. So by Oct we could be seeing the D810 at about US$2500, with Nikon rebates and seasonal discounting, and maybe even with rumours of a D810 successor by then further driving down D810 prices.

Pentax should set their price to follow the likely trajectory of D810 prices, so that when they do launch, they can still say their FF is a better value proposition than the Nikon. If they set the price at $2500 in Oct 2015 I reckon that would put them in a pretty good position against their main 36MP DSLR competitor.
03-08-2015, 09:52 AM   #184
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We already know Ricoh has stated they are using a 30-40mp sensor, so we can probably guess that sensor will be the 36mp sensor that has been in use for a while now. I do think they can pull it off with that sensor for 2k. Ohh, I would probably go 2300, but I will not go 3000. The Sony a7r is available for 2100 dollars at B&H, and the Nikon D800e is available at Abes of Maine for 2200 dollars. Both are 36mp. We will not see the Pentax answer released for another 7 months. By then I imagine you would see both of those under 2000 dollars. Again, Pentax cameras generally use older tech after Nikon and Sony have been using them for a while, but Pentax seems to squeeze a good bit of performance from them. In 7 months I wouldn't be surprised to see the D810 and a7r replacements using a 50mp+ sensor, and Canon is also going to be doing that in the next version of the 5d. Why would anyone buy a Pentax body that is nearly the same price (or more in Sony's case) than the competition to get worse warranty support, no pro support, older tech, possibly lower resolution, and worse aftermarket support?

03-08-2015, 10:14 AM - 1 Like   #185
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QuoteOriginally posted by VoiceOfReason Quote
We already know Ricoh has stated they are using a 30-40mp sensor, so we can probably guess that sensor will be the 36mp sensor that has been in use for a while now. I do think they can pull it off with that sensor for 2k. Ohh, I would probably go 2300, but I will not go 3000. The Sony a7r is available for 2100 dollars at B&H, and the Nikon D800e is available at Abes of Maine for 2200 dollars. Both are 36mp. We will not see the Pentax answer released for another 7 months. By then I imagine you would see both of those under 2000 dollars. Again, Pentax cameras generally use older tech after Nikon and Sony have been using them for a while, but Pentax seems to squeeze a good bit of performance from them. In 7 months I wouldn't be surprised to see the D810 and a7r replacements using a 50mp+ sensor, and Canon is also going to be doing that in the next version of the 5d. Why would anyone buy a Pentax body that is nearly the same price (or more in Sony's case) than the competition to get worse warranty support, no pro support, older tech, possibly lower resolution, and worse aftermarket support?
Oh, I don't know...in-body SR, proven WR, better ergonomics, and better IQ compared to other cameras using the same sensor, among other surprises of which we may be currently unaware. The same reasons someone buys a Pentax body now, basically.
In the shops, nobody is going to pick up a Pentax FF and seriously compare it to a Nikon D810 if the Pentax is 2/3rds the price - like others have said - perception is very important. Low price can be important if moving volume is the key consideration, however it is very damaging if Ricoh wants to build a serious reputation in the FF realm.

Personally, I'll pick it up if it's about $2500 and 36MP. Why do you compare it to a D800E? That camera is coming up on it's 3rd birthday and is also discontinued, if FF for cheap is my only goal, I'll grab a used 5D for well under $1k.

Last edited by Mock; 03-08-2015 at 10:20 AM.
03-08-2015, 10:26 AM   #186
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QuoteOriginally posted by Mock Quote
Oh, I don't know...in-body SR, proven WR, better ergonomics, and better IQ compared to other cameras using the same sensor, among other surprises of which we may be currently unaware. The same reasons someone buys a Pentax body now, basically.
In the shops, nobody is going to pick up a Pentax FF and seriously compare it to a Nikon D810 if the Pentax is 2/3rds the price - like others have said - perception is very important. Low price can be important if moving volume is the key consideration, however it is very damaging if Ricoh wants to build a serious reputation in the FF realm.

Personally, I'll pick it up if it's about $2500 and 36MP. Why do you compare it to a D800E? That camera is coming up on it's 3rd birthday and is also discontinued, if FF for cheap is my only goal, I'll grab a used 5D for well under $1k.
Same sensor that we will likely see in the new upcoming FF. Again, unless you offer a load of features at a low price then you aren't attracting new customers. You know why I got in to pentax? The Kx had a much better set of features for the price compared to Nikon and Canon. You know what will bring new people into the Pentax fold when it is lacking in aftermarket support, warranty support, pro support, B&M presence, etc.? Loads of features at a much lower price than competing bodies. They certainly can't compete otherwise.
03-08-2015, 10:44 AM   #187
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They already have boatloads of features at lower prices, yet the average DLSR shopper will still grab a D7100 over a K3 even if the former is $300 more and the K3 is better spec'd. I don't believe they compete very well with this strategy, it's been 6 months since I've worked behind the counter, but I doubt the customer has changed much since then.

As an aside, you don't get to have nice things like good warranty support, pro support, and B&M presence if you're selling cameras at break-even or a loss.
03-08-2015, 10:57 AM   #188
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QuoteQuote:
They already have boatloads of features at lower prices, yet the average DLSR shopper will still grab a D7100 over a K3 even if the former is $300
You can't help stupid.

03-08-2015, 11:00 AM   #189
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QuoteOriginally posted by normhead Quote
You can't help stupid.
True, I really gave up on trying. That K-3/K-50 thing doesn't say Canon or Nikon on it, so it must be awful, and that must be why it's so cheap too.

Last edited by Mock; 03-08-2015 at 11:06 AM.
03-08-2015, 11:03 AM   #190
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QuoteOriginally posted by VoiceOfReason Quote
See the poll I created to check out what most Pentax users say about price though.
Chuckle! It is hardly representative. Only a tiny fraction of all the Pentax users in the world even know about the poll. Only 78 people have responded.

Imagine that Ricoh know about this poll. What would their reaction be?

First: they have probably fixed most of the hardware details of the FF camera by now, so whether it is D810-like or D610-like (or whatever) has already been committed. Debates here and elsewhere are about "prediction", not "influence".

They probably haven't decided the exact price, but they have probably decided whether to go for "value for money but still giving a useful profit" or "minimise or eliminate the profit in order to maximise sales". The Pentax division probably needs to take the former approach, to convince Ricoh to continue with the Pentax line.

They will probably assume that people responding to the poll, (even in the absence of knowledge of what class of camera it is), fall mainly into either of these two categories:

1. People telling the truth about their upper limit. In which case, Ricoh will probably think: "if that is their upper limit, we are not going to make much profit from them over the next year or two. If they won't spend more than that on an FF camera, they probably won't spend it on high-spec profitable lenses either. These people are not in our target market for FF in the next year or two".

2. People lying about their upper limit. In which case, Ricoh will probably think: "they are just trying to blackmail us into setting a lower price, but if we set a higher price they will pay it anyway. So we can ignore their stated limits".

Ricoh know that there are people who will pay prices comparable with the competition (or nearly so), and so may say: "we'll set a high-but-value price initially to make the FF line profitable for the first year, then once that source of profit has gone, we'll change the product mix or prices to start to get profit out of the next tier of people".

People who are not willing to spend a reasonable amount of money on a Pentax FF camera are unlikely to spend it on a Nikon or Canon FF camera (plus a range of lenses) either. So Ricoh may judge that the risk of defections in this group is small.

Last edited by Barry Pearson; 03-08-2015 at 11:17 AM.
03-08-2015, 12:13 PM - 2 Likes   #191
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QuoteOriginally posted by normhead Quote
I can not believe the number of people talking about D610s etc. cameras that really don't have much to offer over a K-3 and you lose a lot, in cropped image resolution. Half to 90% of Pentax users are not going to be interested in that FF feature set. They are not going to buy a Full Frame, just because it's full frame, unless you go to a high res pro type system, you get the guys who need pro gear, the high end amateurs and the guys who want the low light and narrow DoF performance, you get everyone. If Pentax goes 24 MP like a D610, well, I looked at a D610 and rejected, and i suspect a lot of other Pentax users would too. Just in terms of offering an upgrade path, 36 Mp is kind of a minimum, and that means $2500 is pretty much a minimum. I can't believe how many of you don't seem to realize that for what I do, a D610 type camera is a downgrade. It has nothing to offer me, and costs me a lot in terms of having to buy more expensive lenses to get the FoV and magnification I want on wildlife images.
+1 the k-3 is pretty hard to beat for what I do as well. And a D610 feature set would be a downgrade from the k-3 (for me) plus the expense of new and likely more expensive lenses. I just would not be interested.

But me give a 36mp sensor with great dynamic range and features that are a real step up from the k-3 and yeah, I'm in. But there has to be a clear improvement over the k-3, and not just narrow DOF which I have no interest in anyway. I have zero interest in FF for the sake of bragging I have a FF camera. The image produced is the only thing that matters to me.

I think we still have a lot of folks who want a cheap FF to use their old film lenses on "like they were meant to be". Sorry, but that does not work for me and I suspect Ricoh has no interest in it either. They are thinking a lot bigger. I sympathize with those folks and respect their viewpoint, but it's not going to happen. Ricoh has said they want to be a player, you don't do that by snapping up crumbs at the bargain basement level. You show you have professional gear, at professional pricing that delivers professional quality. You don't 'buy' market share with cheap prices, you establish a demand for your product that goes beyond price.

The FF will not be a beefed up k-3 it will be a 645z lite. Think of it from that viewpoint and $3,000 for the body makes a lot more sense.
03-08-2015, 12:43 PM   #192
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QuoteOriginally posted by VoiceOfReason Quote
They can release a D810 spec camera at 2k
No, they can't; they would have to cut corners one way or another.
I'm not saying they would launch a D810 spec/priced camera, though; we don't know that. IMO they should rather target around $2500.

QuoteOriginally posted by VoiceOfReason Quote
I can get a D800e for 2200 dollars. If I were a Nikon person why in the world would I look at Pentax with a 3k price for just the body when I have that available?
Obviously, they're not trying to sell to "Nikon persons" happy with their D800es. They're not trying to compete with discontinued cameras on price, either.

QuoteOriginally posted by VoiceOfReason Quote
What you don't seem to understand is that you make a body to attract people and sell your high priced lenses since you now have them in your system.
I don't think the people who would only buy a $3000 camera if it's sold for $2000 (and that's only a claim, they can change their minds later when they'll see a cheaper body from a competitor) would really buy many $2300-2500 lenses.
03-08-2015, 12:57 PM   #193
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QuoteOriginally posted by normhead Quote
I can not believe the number of people talking about D610s etc. cameras that really don't have much to offer over a K-3 and you lose a lot, in cropped image resolution. Half to 90% of Pentax users are not going to be interested in that FF feature set. They are not going to buy a Full Frame, just because it's full frame, unless you go to a high res pro type system, you get the guys who need pro gear, the high end amateurs and the guys who want the low light and narrow DoF performance, you get everyone. If Pentax goes 24 MP like a D610, well, I looked at a D610 and rejected, and i suspect a lot of other Pentax users would too.

Just in terms of offering an upgrade path, 36 Mp is kind of a minimum, and that means $2500 is pretty much a minimum. I can't believe how many of you don't seem to realize that for what I do, a D610 type camera is a downgrade. It has nothing to offer me, and costs me a lot in terms of having to buy more expensive lenses to get the FoV and magnification I want on wildlife images.
I totally agree! I want a camera that is not only FF, but as good as or better than my K-3 in virtually every aspect. And I'm prepared to pay up to the equivalent price of (say) a D810 for that camera.

The lower the spec, the less use it would be to me. And while I would like Ricoh to sell a good FF camera cheap, they would be foolish to do so.

Last edited by Barry Pearson; 03-08-2015 at 01:06 PM.
03-10-2015, 10:04 AM   #194
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finally more logic behind this.

Everything you need to know about the target market and price point of the new K-FF can be foreshadowed by the first lens announced for it... a D*FA 70-200mm f2.8 priced in line with Nikon and Canon counterparts.... we will see a 5DMKIII/D810 class of camera in the same price point. I'd bet money on it.
03-10-2015, 11:43 AM - 1 Like   #195
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QuoteOriginally posted by Wired Quote
Everything you need to know about the target market and price point of the new K-FF can be foreshadowed by the first lens announced for it... a D*FA 70-200mm f2.8 priced in line with Nikon and Canon counterparts.... we will see a 5DMKIII/D810 class of camera in the same price point. I'd bet money on it.
There are still some important things many of us want to know. For example, I want to know how many frames per second the camera will achieve. There are a number of problems to be overcome: how fast can the mirror be moved and the shutter fired? And how fast can sensor data be moved around and buffered and process?

Will the frame rate be better or worse than the K-3? Will the Pentax FF camera achieve at least 8.3 FPS * 36 MP = 299 MP/sec sensor data rate?

Here are some numbers I have just posted elsewhere, based on what other cameras, from Canon, Nikon, and Sony, can apparently do: (FPS * MP = MP/sec), in descending order of data rate:

A77: 12 * 24 = 288
5DS: 5 * 51 = 255
1Dx: 14 * 18 = 252
A65: 10 * 24 = 240
K-3: 8.3 * 24 = 199
D810: 5 * 36 = 180
D4s: 11 * 16 = 176
D610: 6 * 24 = 144

I had thought the D810 was the camera I most wanted the Pentax FF camera to match. Now I'm not so sure!

If the Pentax FF camera achieved 8 FPS (which is obviously possible, even for an FF mirror-camera, although presumably expensive), and had a 36 MP sensor, it would need the same sensor data rate of the A77. Or am I missing something? And how much would that cost?
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