[starjedi]

This is a difficult one, since we know little about the new camera. But lets make some thinking about that. We do have lots of info about the current state of Pentax in the total market.

CIPA figures:
http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d-2014_e.pdf

In 2013 the salesnumbers for dslr where 14 million units and just uder 10 % of them where Full Frame. In 2014 the number stocks at 10,5 million, but the average sales price went up. So it is to be expected that this in part comes from a larger marketshare for Full Frame. Maybe even not only the % went up, but even the actual salesnumber in units went up. The number of cameramodels with a full frame sensor went also up over the past year en in the ending of 2013.

So maybe the marketshare for Full Frame went up to 15 % over the past year 2014. Maybe we will see some actually figures about that in the near future.

The marketshare for Pentax in this segment would be around 1,3 - 1,5 % for dslr. In Japan a lot more, but not for the rest of the world, wich is 90 % of the market.

So depending of the camera Ricoh Imaging will bring to market we can expect more or less sales. The more futures inside, the more attractive it gets, but the increasing price would deminish sales very quickly (coming close to zero at the price of a Leica M camera).

The camera market is still very changing. With a decrease over the past year in sales of 25 % (for dslr) we can expect the market to be even slower in 2015 then it was in 2014. Expecting the market to be down to 80 % of last years sales isn't unrealistic.

So how would this new FF camera have impact on the Pentax sales and marketshare?

- My guess is that currently the sales for Pentax camera's is slowing down. Simply because there are people saving their money for the newly announced FF. Not spending money to be able to buy the camera when it really reaches the market.
- For the marketshare of Pentax that is not so good at the time, but for the potential sales of the FF this is a good thing.
- Pentax lost a lot of customers over the past 3 years. Marketshare went down and the total market is smaller now then in 2012. In the interview with the Ricoh Imaging reps at CP+ they are talking about hoping for Pentax users that left the brand to come back to the K-mount.
- Looking at the competition, what they offer and how they price their FF offerings, I think it is safe to say that a camera priced at max of 80-90 % of the D750 would probably make the most sales. A cheaper camera probably won't attrack customers back to K-mount, since it maybe doesn't offer all on futures, while a more expensive camera would scare of the on average less spending Pentaxians (cheapskates if you wish).
- You also have the.....just lets buy the camera crowd. This is in current economics a smaller groupe then some years ago.
- There is a portion of people that would buy the FF, but maybe haven't bought any K-mount dslr over the past years (maybe being less in to photography or using other or multiple brands) but still have some nice K-mount lenses from times ago (the F* and FA* lenses) that would be great to use on that new FF body.

So how would this work out?
- If the camera market goes down to 80 % of last year then the dslr market goes down to 700.000 units a month (remember the camera has not been completed, so only some months will be left over this year).
- If the market share for FF keeps growing, due to entrylevel users going to mirrorless or just their new iPhone then the marketshare could grow to be anything between 15 % and 20 %.
- If Pentax still has the 1,4 % marketshare and of them 15 % would be going to the FF market if the price is just right for them.
- If there is a nice group of owners of old lenses, mostley in Japan that would buy the new FF camera.
- If people who left the K-mount in the past year would return (not very likely in my opinion).

Then the camera would make sales when coming to market at the right price offering the right futures of:

• 1500 pieces to the current usergroup each month
• 1500 pieces to the ownercrowd of lenses at the start for like 3-6 months
• maybe a few to photographers who left the brand over the past years.

Ofcource there will be a run for the new camera at start, but those are salesnumbers that are temporary and not there for years to come. At start there would be a larger sales option. I think that if Ricoh Imaging can make a productionline running for the new Full Frame at between 1500 and 2500 camera's a month and make a profit at selling it at max 90 % of a D750 then this would work out fine. If the camera is like 20 % more expensive then the D750 or even more, then I guess that salesnumbers would be cut in half easily.

Can Pentax's marketshare grow due to the FF offering over the coming year and 2016? Well maybe a little, but probably each FF body would mean one aps-c body sale less. It's like with 645Z. You make sales, but it doesn't show in marketshare numbers.

It is fair to say 5-10% of pentaxian will upgrade in this year for FF if the price is not ridiculous high as soon we will have $800 Sony mirrorless FF. A expensive model typically cannot sell well. If they want to sell, the price should be reasonable and comparable to others. If the price is $2000, I think the sell number will reach 10, 000 in the first year 2015 and 50,000 should be reasonable in a second year(2016). I will say at least 30% pentax current users will eventually upgrade. So it will contribute to 0.5% market share. If it priced above $3000, I am sure only hard core pentaxian will eventually buy it(say 5-10%). The market share will be likely to be the same as 645z.

I do not think that pentax FF will attract many non-pentaxians initially as in the market 5diii, canon 6d, nikon 750 and nikon 610 , Sony alpha 7 had dominated from each level to medium level. Pentax ff has to be unique to stand out. Two features definitely can boost sales:
1) 1.0x 100% OVF ( 0.80x is good but not enough to persuade non-penaxians..)
2) 100+mp shots handheld (have to be high MP to attract eyeball of non-pentaxians)
Without the above two features, it will unlikely be a killer machine.

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Last edited by starjedi; 02-26-2015 at 07:34 PM.

[Bob from Aus]

Simple mathematics to calculate the sales:

Take the full membership of pentax forum divide by 2 and add on the first number you thought of for the first 2 years of sales. Easy

[clackers]

Simple mathematics to calculate the sales:

Take the full membership of pentax forum divide by 2 and add on the first number you thought of for the first 2 years of sales. Easy

I think you'll find you divide by the crop factor, Bob - 1.5.

[noser]

What percentage of the smart phone market does Apple have? It doesn't matter because they have 89% of the profit.

Apple's iPhone commands record high 89% of smartphone profits while Android plummets to record low

Totally OT: Not a surprise; coming from years of iPhone ownership I can now say that Androids suck - the user experience is total garbage. And it's not the hardware (I'm now a not-proud owner of an HTC One M8, which is capable); it's purely a software thing.

More On-Topic: Software on dSLRs seems largely ignored. HDR sort of works. And we have filters, too. Apparently sensor shift doesn't (but works for other MF cameras.. hmm... ). How about disabling DFS? Video mode? I'm not just picking on Pentax, it's like all major Camera companies decided to go the 'infinite number of monkeys' route with software. Shame, really, since if they listened to half the ideas in this forum, they'd have amazing cameras, based on just better software features...

[zmohie]

I dont know how many but I my self will buy one!
LENSES are the milky cow for Ricoh not the bodies.

[forest_bear59]

I think I will also buy one, but not before autumn 2016. Some renovation in my house ... *sigh*

For me the hope of Ricoh/Pentax to get lost users back is illusoric. A long term Pentax user who has abandoned the system most probably has sold his treasured FF-capable lenses. Lenses, which to find and buy may have taken much effort and money. If I would have waited some years for a Pentax FF to come and just when having sold my precious lenses ... violá: there it is ... I would be so angry about this, that I surely never would return.

Once lost, forever lost ...

[RonHendriks1966]

The K-3 will likely outsell it 10-1. The K-S2 20-1. Likewise the Q. I wouldn't be surprised if the 645Z outsells it since that camera is quite unique in its segment.

Well my projection for sales make it up for like 15 % of total Pentax sales in dslr. With your number 30:1 on sales for K-3/K-S2 to FF you end up with selling 5000 units a year. That is indeed in the same league as the 645Z.

I think Pentax said they projected to sell 10,000 645D units a year when it was launched and they sold a good bit more than they expected. The 645z is also selling well past this mark. The FF DSLR is going to sell well in North America with the right marketing.

I think they sold like 10.000 units of 645D in the 4 years it was on the market in total.

[yusuf]

In a local photography forum, I can see two D800 for sale and the reason is, want to go light. This is the right time for mirrorless and no other competition in FF mirrorless market apart from Sony, this would have been the market for Pentax to target.

Unless Pentax comes up with something striking, upgradation ration likely to be low depending on the price.

[clackers]

In a local photography forum, I can see two D800 for sale and the reason is, want to go light. This is the right time for mirrorless and no other competition in FF mirrorless market apart from Sony, this would have been the market for Pentax to target.

Unless Pentax comes up with something striking, upgradation ration likely to be low depending on the price.

They know the small numbers they're dealing with, Yusuf.

They said in the past a FF product had been in development but would only be released pending market conditions.

[Rondec]

I think that having full frame in the line up is not just about full frame sales, but also hopefully, boosting sales of lower end products by giving an upgrade path, even if most people don't actually purchase it. Having the 645 series doesn't really provide that path, since it is a completely different mount (even if it has much the same ethos about it).

The biggest question with regard to sales is going to center around glass. Can Pentax have glass that hits different price points and matches up well against Canon/Nikon line ups. Certainly at launch point, it just won't be there. There will be a basic line up and then people will need to fill in the gaps with Sigma and/or Tamron options. But hopefully Pentax can draw people in with interesting lenses -- more stuff like the FA limiteds and the DA *55 is what is needed, in my opinion/

[kooks]

The biggest question with regard to sales is going to center around glass. Can Pentax have glass that hits different price points and matches up well against Canon/Nikon line ups. Certainly at launch point, it just won't be there. There will be a basic line up and then people will need to fill in the gaps with Sigma and/or Tamron options. But hopefully Pentax can draw people in with interesting lenses -- more stuff like the FA limiteds and the DA *55 is what is needed, in my opinion/

Some good Pentax source around here said that they will release at least 8 new lenses within the next months.. so, that + all the legacy will cover most ranges.. also we cant forget the third party glass.. Hopefully Sigma can jump into K mount with all their Art lenses.

[mrNewt]

If I'm going to win the lottery anytime soon, I will be buying ALL of them so you will have NONE of it!

[Trudger1272]

I think that having full frame in the line up is not just about full frame sales, but also hopefully, boosting sales of lower end products by giving an upgrade path, even if most people don't actually purchase it. Having the 645 series doesn't really provide that path, since it is a completely different mount (even if it has much the same ethos about it).

True. A couple of years ago I chose a K30 over the D5200 a month or so later, I learned that Pentax had no FF DSLR offering and was shocked. It was a little discouraging but I liked my K30 so much, I stayed with Pentax and upgraded. Had I known Pentax had no FF before I bought the K30, I probably would've got the D5200. APS-C is cool for school, but at some point I will be getting a FF and now I won't have to look elsewhere.

[monochrome]

Well my projection for sales make it up for like 15 % of total Pentax sales in dslr. With your number 30:1 on sales for K-3/K-S2 to FF you end up with selling 5000 units a year. That is indeed in the same league as the 645Z.



I think they sold like 10.000 units of 645D in the 4 years it was on the market in total.

I've been under the impression their planned pre-orders for 645z (including institutional sales) were 10,000 units, which they exceeded significantly (2,000 units), and that they've stabilized production flow at 7,500 units annually. That would mean they've sold 20,000 units (including institutional sales) the first year.

[monochrome]

Some good Pentax source around here said that they will release at least 8 new lenses within the next months.. so, that + all the legacy will cover most ranges.. also we cant forget the third party glass.. Hopefully Sigma can jump into K mount with all their Art lenses.

6 - 8 new FF lenses the first two years, so 03/2015 - 12/2016.