This is a difficult one, since we know little about the new camera. But lets make some thinking about that. We do have lots of info about the current state of Pentax in the total market.
CIPA figures:
http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d-2014_e.pdf
In 2013 the salesnumbers for dslr where 14 million units and just uder 10 % of them where Full Frame. In 2014 the number stocks at 10,5 million, but the average sales price went up. So it is to be expected that this in part comes from a larger marketshare for Full Frame. Maybe even not only the % went up, but even the actual salesnumber in units went up. The number of cameramodels with a full frame sensor went also up over the past year en in the ending of 2013.
So maybe the marketshare for Full Frame went up to 15 % over the past year 2014. Maybe we will see some actually figures about that in the near future.
The marketshare for Pentax in this segment would be around 1,3 - 1,5 % for dslr. In Japan a lot more, but not for the rest of the world, wich is 90 % of the market.
So depending of the camera Ricoh Imaging will bring to market we can expect more or less sales. The more futures inside, the more attractive it gets, but the increasing price would deminish sales very quickly (coming close to zero at the price of a Leica M camera).
The camera market is still very changing. With a decrease over the past year in sales of 25 % (for dslr) we can expect the market to be even slower in 2015 then it was in 2014. Expecting the market to be down to 80 % of last years sales isn't unrealistic.
So how would this new FF camera have impact on the Pentax sales and marketshare?
- My guess is that currently the sales for Pentax camera's is slowing down. Simply because there are people saving their money for the newly announced FF. Not spending money to be able to buy the camera when it really reaches the market.
- For the marketshare of Pentax that is not so good at the time, but for the potential sales of the FF this is a good thing.
- Pentax lost a lot of customers over the past 3 years. Marketshare went down and the total market is smaller now then in 2012. In the interview with the Ricoh Imaging reps at CP+ they are talking about hoping for Pentax users that left the brand to come back to the K-mount.
- Looking at the competition, what they offer and how they price their FF offerings, I think it is safe to say that a camera priced at max of 80-90 % of the D750 would probably make the most sales. A cheaper camera probably won't attrack customers back to K-mount, since it maybe doesn't offer all on futures, while a more expensive camera would scare of the on average less spending Pentaxians (cheapskates if you wish).
- You also have the.....just lets buy the camera crowd. This is in current economics a smaller groupe then some years ago.
- There is a portion of people that would buy the FF, but maybe haven't bought any K-mount dslr over the past years (maybe being less in to photography or using other or multiple brands) but still have some nice K-mount lenses from times ago (the F* and FA* lenses) that would be great to use on that new FF body.
So how would this work out?
- If the camera market goes down to 80 % of last year then the dslr market goes down to 700.000 units a month (remember the camera has not been completed, so only some months will be left over this year).
- If the market share for FF keeps growing, due to entrylevel users going to mirrorless or just their new iPhone then the marketshare could grow to be anything between 15 % and 20 %.
- If Pentax still has the 1,4 % marketshare and of them 15 % would be going to the FF market if the price is just right for them.
- If there is a nice group of owners of old lenses, mostley in Japan that would buy the new FF camera.
- If people who left the K-mount in the past year would return (not very likely in my opinion).
Then the camera would make sales when coming to market at the right price offering the right futures of:
- 1500 pieces to the current usergroup each month
- 1500 pieces to the ownercrowd of lenses at the start for like 3-6 months
- maybe a few to photographers who left the brand over the past years.
Ofcource there will be a run for the new camera at start, but those are salesnumbers that are temporary and not there for years to come. At start there would be a larger sales option. I think that if Ricoh Imaging can make a productionline running for the new Full Frame at between 1500 and 2500 camera's a month and make a profit at selling it at max 90 % of a D750 then this would work out fine. If the camera is like 20 % more expensive then the D750 or even more, then I guess that salesnumbers would be cut in half easily.
Can Pentax's marketshare grow due to the FF offering over the coming year and 2016? Well maybe a little, but probably each FF body would mean one aps-c body sale less. It's like with 645Z. You make sales, but it doesn't show in marketshare numbers.
Last edited by RonHendriks1966; 02-26-2015 at 03:04 PM.