[pinholecam]

There are usually lots of 'predictions' prior to a release.

Now that the K3 is out.

So name and shame here.
Who was right and who smoked something....


Credit where credits due.



Maybe this will eliminate false rumors and ID the Pentax spies among us.

Edit (Added a list)
Spies
====
1. Asahiman
2. Frank
3. Otis
4. Adam
5.


Shams
======
1. ??

---

Last edited by pinholecam; 10-15-2013 at 03:53 PM.

[Rupert]

Otis predicted the K3 would not be a FF camera.........and as usual, Otis was 100% correct! He also predicted that there would be a lot of squealers complaining that it was not a FF.....Damn that Otis! ...right again, how does he do it??
Regards!

[rawr]

I wish such a thing as 'Pentax spies' existed.
Just like 'Pentax online marketers' or 'paid Pentax shills'.

But I seriously doubt there are any.

[pinholecam]

Someone let us in on the info 'that something is coming before Christmas'
And that was spot on......

year after year

[VoiceOfReason]

I knew it was not only going to be a camera, but a DSLR, and not only that, but K mount!

[rawr]

'Asahiman' on DPR is about the closest you'd get to a 'spy' or real Pentax insider (in the English language forums). The Chinese forums seem to have their own 'insiders' and 'spys'. Sometimes they cross-over though (via RiceHigh).

[boriscleto]

Sometimes they cross-over though (via RiceHigh). Sometimes RiceLow gets lucky

Fixed it for you.

[pinholecam]

'Asahiman' on DPR is about the closest you'd get to a 'spy' or real Pentax insider (in the English language forums). The Chinese forums seem to have their own 'insiders' and 'spys'. Sometimes they cross-over though (via RiceHigh).

Yes, Asahiman seems to be pretty accurate.

Frank certainly has a direct link to the distro.
He had the camera a week before release.
Shared the hands on preview too.

[woodywesty]

This forum needs a "mole" inside Ricoh......

[normhead]

What was really surprising to me, was the thread where a Japanese company accidentally posted the web page for the new camera a week early, then took it down. Despite having screen shots etc. a number of folks argued it was all fake. The info was posted by RiceHigh, who was way out in front of the pack.. credit where credit is due...and the best exchange in the thread was when Parallax who after reading through the thread said "even a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then." To which somoene else replied "Has that been empirically established?" or something to that effect. Anyway, there are a lot of lessons here. Ricey boy can be right... people who doubt Ricey on principal are sometimes wrong, and there's very few people on the forum who actually can tell the difference between when he's right and when he's wrong.

And last but not least, you can't determine truth by evaluating the messenger. It's possible the worst fraud in the world, still tells the truth on occasion. Sometimes you just have to do your own evaluation independent of your own prejudices and biases.

[Winder]

The specs for the K-3 were pretty predictable, so hard to not get it right.

https://www.pentaxforums.com/forums/pentax-news-rumors/144302-k-3-speculation.html

24MP
No AA Filter
2 card slots
I had predicted 21-AF point so I was off by 6 AF points.
Improved SR

But nobody needed an inside track at Pentax to know what Pentax needed to do to have a competitive camera.

[normhead]

The specs for the K-3 were pretty predictable, so hard to not get it right.

https://www.pentaxforums.com/forums/pentax-news-rumors/144302-k-3-speculation.html

24MP
No AA Filter
2 card slots
I had predicted 21-AF point so I was off by 6 AF points.
Improved SR

But nobody needed an inside track at Pentax to know what Pentax needed to do to have a competitive camera.

We all knew what Pentax needed to bring out when they brought out the K-5 II as well. The K-5 II wasn't enough to convince me to upgrade from a K-5. It fell well short.

[monochrome]

I don't think there are Pentax moles here. But I do think there are members who test cameras under NDA's.

There is from time to time a one-off, detailed post (sometimes by an infrequent poster) that is decidedly partiular and detailed - but never another post and never a confirmation of whatever was posted. My observation has been these are frequently very close to the mark and I have always surmised the poster was testing a prototype. I've never imagined such a poster was testing a pre-production unit since those would likely be subject to very strict NDA's.

My assumption has always been such posts are not random acts. Rather I have always assumed they are not only authorized but are directed by Pentax.

The best example I can recall was a single post in late June of 2012 on the K5II that was almost exactly correct except that it was called the K5n. Though I can't find it now, there was a flurry of exhanges regarding historical n cameras and what they meant.

[rbefly]

Hello pinholecam,
You have a good idea going, but if you're waiting for someone to 'shame' themselves here, it ain't gonna happen.
If a poster had a prediction that was WAY off, about the last thing they will do is repeat it on this thread. Eat more humble pie? In public? Nope.
And I seriously doubt a non-predicting member is going to pore through the heaps of conjecture to find the worst guessers and 'out' them here, by name. First, it's mean-spirited and could easily lead to a flame war, second, this isn't DPR.
Ricehigh is a different case, he's an easy target and not around to defend himself. The fact that he was nearly right doesn't raise his status and credibility any, in my opinion. He's the proverbial blind squirrel, except blind squirrels might also be likeable.
So, a few who were close might mention it, all others will quietly hide until the next cycle of rumour, wild guess, predict, public release, hide.
JMO,
Ron

[pinholecam]

I don't think there are Pentax moles here. But I do think there are members who test cameras under NDA's.

There is from time to time a one-off, detailed post (sometimes by an infrequent poster) that is decidedly partiular and detailed - but never another post and never a confirmation of whatever was posted. My observation has been these are frequently very close to the mark and I have always surmised the poster was testing a prototype. I've never imagined such a poster was testing a pre-production unit since those would likely be subject to very strict NDA's.

My assumption has always been such posts are not random acts. Rather I have always assumed they are not only authorized but are directed by Pentax.

The best example I can recall was a single post in late June of 2012 on the K5II that was almost exactly correct except that it was called the K5n. Though I can't find it now, there was a flurry of exhanges regarding historical n cameras and what they meant.

Thats the reason for this post. (as well as to poke fun at the false rumor mongers )
I know that there are those who have more info than us.
Maybe its through a reliable distro, a service tech who is a friend, testing a prototype, works for Pentax, etc.
What these folks post can often be swept off the radar as more dominant topics/theories/negativity/individuals take center stage in the discussions here.

Hello pinholecam,
You have a good idea going, but if you're waiting for someone to 'shame' themselves here, it ain't gonna happen.
If a poster had a prediction that was WAY off, about the last thing they will do is repeat it on this thread. Eat more humble pie? In public? Nope.
And I seriously doubt a non-predicting member is going to pore through the heaps of conjecture to find the worst guessers and 'out' them here, by name. First, it's mean-spirited and could easily lead to a flame war, second, this isn't DPR.
Ricehigh is a different case, he's an easy target and not around to defend himself. The fact that he was nearly right doesn't raise his status and credibility any, in my opinion. He's the proverbial blind squirrel, except blind squirrels might also be likeable.
So, a few who were close might mention it, all others will quietly hide until the next cycle of rumour, wild guess, predict, public release, hide.
JMO,
Ron

Thats why I need help to at least ID and recall on some of the "who said what".
At least the accurate ones.

Think about it.
If we had a list of say 5-8 folks that we know, know something, we can ignore the others (just joking)

So, a few who were close might mention it, all others will quietly hide until the next cycle of rumour, wild guess, predict, public release, hide.
JMO,

That means, 'don't trust anyone'