[GregL65]

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For those of you who watch prices closely and have seen the effect of previous releases on existing camera's prices on eBay, what effect to you expect the release of the K-3 III to have on eBay prices for the K-3, K-3 II, and KP?

How long to you expect it to take after release day for those prices to reach more or less down to their new normal for the time being? I would expect a surge of them to hit eBay as people upgrade to the K-3 III.

I'm still using a K-5 II. I plan to upgrade to one of them after the K-3 III release pushes their prices down on eBay. Fingers crossed that it can be the KP, but that will depend on what happens to prices. The KP's USB tethering would be so convenient.

[stevebrot]

Zero...


Steve

[Sidney Porter]

I don't track it but it seems like the price of used pentax dslr bodies have gone up over the past year. KEH rarely has more than a couple. It think I paid $400 for a k3 in 2018 I think they had a k3ii for around $500 last month

It also seems like there are fewer manual lenses available. I assume mirror less adapters are driving this market

[Kobie]

Going by current K-3 used pricing, I see the price of KP price pretty much staying the same for the next while. Especially since it's now a discontinued camera. Where else are you going to get one?

[pschlute]

I would expect a surge of them to hit eBay as people upgrade to the K-3 III.

I'm still using a K-5 II. I plan to upgrade to one of them after the K-3 III release pushes their prices down on eBay

You have answered your own question. For everyone upgrading to a K3III there is someone like you wanting to buy a K3/K3II/KP

Supply/demand maintains equilibrium.

[aslyfox]

For those of you who watch prices closely and have seen the effect of previous releases on existing camera's prices on eBay, what effect to you expect the release of the K-3 III to have on eBay prices for the K-3, K-3 II, and KP? . . .

seeing how the release of the K 3 III has been delayed " indefinitely " I don't think you will see any decrease in the price of the other camera bodies soon

[clickclick]

I've been surprised how well Pentax bodies hold their value. My DA* 16-50 has a cantankerous SDM motor, and I was toying with picking up a K-5 IIs to do the conversion and have a nice camera in the process too, but the prices on them was more than I had expected. My guess is there won't be much of a change in prices with the new release.

[GregL65]

seeing how the release of the K 3 III has been delayed " indefinitely " I don't think you will see any decrease in the price of the other camera bodies soon

Sure, but I didn't say "soon". I said "the release of the K-3 III". We don't know when that will be, but even if it takes a very long time, I'm talking about "the release of the K-3 III", whenever that turns out to be, not "soon".

---------- Post added 03-03-21 at 05:26 PM ----------

For everyone upgrading to a K3III there is someone like you wanting to buy a K3/K3II/KP

Supply/demand maintains equilibrium.

People buying new are less price sensitive on average. And, many have been waiting eagerly to buy something that won't be available to buy until it's released. When the K-3 III is released, there will be a surge of buyers. Some will keep their prior camera as backup, but many will sell. So I'd expect a surge of supply on the used market.

I wouldn't expect any corresponding surge in demand for the used cameras. Anyone can buy a used K-3, K-3 ii, or KP today. Some like me are waiting for lower prices, but that isn't the same thing as a surge in demand. We aren't going to suddenly start buying the used cameras in larger numbers at the same prices just because the K-3 III was released. If there is a corresponding surge in buying of used K-3, K-3 ii, and KP, it would probably only be due to a significant decrease in prices for them on the used market.

So I think we're going to have a surge in supply while demand remains fairly steady. That should push prices down. That effect may be small and temporary, but I doubt it. Look what's happened to K-1 prices since the release of the K-1 II.

[i_trax]

Going by current K-3 used pricing, I see the price of KP price pretty much staying the same for the next while. Especially since it's now a discontinued camera. Where else are you going to get one?

you can still order both , silver and black , on Pentax Australia site @ AU$ 1249

[Kobie]

you can still order both , silver and black , on Pentax Australia site @ AU$ 1249

Interesting. Right on Ricoh Imaging's site it's different
Products | RICOH IMAGING

[Des]

I've been surprised how well Pentax bodies hold their value. My DA* 16-50 has a cantankerous SDM motor, and I was toying with picking up a K-5 IIs to do the conversion and have a nice camera in the process too, but the prices on them was more than I had expected.

Particularly the flagship models, because they are solid and built to last. The K-5 series and the K-3 series are often recommended by members here in 'Which camera?' threads.

I think the K-3 series will be in demand on the used market for some years yet. The more so given that Ricoh has decided to offer only two APS-C models, one of which (the K-3iii) will be out of the price range of most people.

I'm still using a K-5 II. I plan to upgrade to one of them after the K-3 III release pushes their prices down on eBay. Fingers crossed that it can be the KP, but that will depend on what happens to prices. The KP's USB tethering would be so convenient.

Don't hold your breath waiting for a price drop on the KP. Most of us will be holding on tight to our KPs now that they have been discontinued and won't be replaced. In fact I think that KPs will be rather sought-after. The KP and K-3iii are sufficiently different that I don't see a lot of KP owners replacing them with a K-3iii. No tilt screen limits the appeal of the K-3iii for landscape photographers, especially if the price is close to that of the K-1ii.

Look what's happened to K-1 prices since the release of the K-1 II.

What I see from Japanese dealers is the K-1 holding its value on the secondhand market remarkably well, with K-1ii models at a premium of only about $US100 for comparable cameras. Even less in some instances: here's a K-1 and K-1ii from the same seller, similar condition, each with a low shutter count, for almost exactly the same price:
https://www.ebay.com/itm/PENTAX-K-1-shutter-count-24445-shots/324501639894
https://www.ebay.com/itm/PENTAX-K-1-Mark-II-upgrade-shutter-count-9196-shots/373479969440

you can still order both , silver and black , on Pentax Australia site @ AU$ 1249

They are listed but not available. CRK confirmed to Paul the Sunman that there won't be any more KPs in Australia.

[calebarchie]

Got one of the last KPs in Australia a while ago after the CRK product manager confirmed it was discontinued. Nobody believed me then!

[Sidney Porter]

---------- Post added 03-03-21 at 05:26 PM ----------





I wouldn't expect any corresponding surge in demand for the used cameras. Anyone can buy a used K-3, K-3 ii, or KP today. Some like me are waiting for lower prices, but that isn't the same thing as a surge in demand. We aren't going to suddenly start buying the used cameras in larger numbers at the same prices just because the K-3 III was released. If there is a corresponding surge in buying of used K-3, K-3 ii, and KP, it would probably only be due to a significant decrease in prices for them on the used market.

.

It depends on the price of the k3iii. There have been multiple threads where people have discussed how much they would spend on the k3iii if the release price is higher than their number they could turn to the the used market.

[GregL65]

What I see from Japanese dealers is the K-1 holding its value remarkably well

Here's what eBay currently shows, for the 10 recent sales of used K-1 in excellent working order, excluding bundles that include major accessories such as lens or grip, and excluding those where the condition is new, mint, or near mint:

(Ignore the first two listed -- the two with the lowest prices -- as their descriptions say they are faulty; I'm looking at only the last 10 in the list, with the highest prices).

pentax k-1 -ii -premium-box -lenses -mint in Camera and Photo Digital Cameras | eBay

Those ten range from a low of US$935 shipped to a high of about US$1,245 shipped, with a median of about US$1,075 shipped.

That compares to the current B&H Photo new price for the K-1 II of US$1,800 shipped. I think that's similar to what the K-1 sold for when new.

I don't know what used examples were selling for before the K-1 II was released, but I doubt you could have gotten one in perfect working order for US$935 shipped, or US$1,075 without even trying to get a good deal (the median price).

It's harder to get a read on current used K-i II prices. No recent sales match the conditions above. The one that sold for the lowest price was actually a K20D, judging by the picture, not a K-1 II as listed (auction #174633263877).

Looking at current Buy It Now offers, and ignoring examples where a K-1 was upgraded to a Mark II, there are 2, with a low of US$1,486 shipped and a high of US$1,517, making the median US$1,501. That's a lot higher than the K-1 median but not really an apples-to-apples comparison.

I think we all agree that the current prices on the used market for the models under discussion are the result of the current tension between supply and demand. When K-3 III buyers -- some of them -- receive their new K-3 IIIs, and start selling off their older bodies, whenever that starts to happen, there's going to be a surge in supply. There won't be a significant corresponding surge in demand because the release of the K-3 III won't directly cause people to start buying up used older models. That shift in balance between supply and demand -- an increase in supply with no significant increase in demand -- will push prices down until prices are low enough that more buyers show up to buy the additional supply.

I think the KP will be less affected than the others since the K-3 III does not have features some KP owners value highly -- lighter weight, small handle availability, and flippy screen. The KP will remain the best way to get those features, so some KP owners won't be interested in upgrading to the K-3 III. But other KP owners are in it for features that are improvements over the K-3/II but will be available or bested on the K-3 III -- improved high ISO performance, USB tethering, handheld Pixel Shift, 5-axis image stabilization -- I'm not sure offhand if there are others. Those KP owners, who went from K-3/II to KP, likely are looking forward to upgrading to the K-3 III. No doubt still others have mixed feelings about upgrading from KP to K-3 III.

The effect on prices might be small and temporary, but I doubt it, because the availability of the superior features and performance of the new model will push down the market value of the features and performance of the older models. If it were not so, than all the old models that are still in excellent working order would still be selling at the prices they commanded when they were current models. Obviously they don't; for example, you can buy a K10D today in perfect working order for a very small fraction of what it would have cost before the K20D was released. The availability of the K20D pushed down the value of the K10D's features and performance. Then the availability of the K-7 pushed them down further. Then the availability of the K-5...etc. etc.

Eventually the downward curve flattens out and very old flagship models in excellent working order start to converge toward roughly similar market values. Then in the very long term some might start to rise again if they gain value as collector's items.

[Des]

Those ten range from a low of US$935 shipped to a high of about US$1,245 shipped, with a median of about US$1,075 shipped.That compares to the current B&H Photo new price for the K-1 II of US$1,800 shipped. I think that's similar to what the K-1 sold for when new.

I don't think that is a meaningful comparison. Apples with apples are secondhand sales of the same type. Most of those in the ebay list are auction prices from private sellers. There isn't a sufficient base of similar K-1ii sales for comparison. I think that Japanese dealer prices are the most reliable indicator. The two K-1 sales in the list from Japanese dealers are $1174 and $1215. The K-1ii is priced around $1300 with those dealers. I was frankly surprised at how little difference there is.

Those KP owners, who went from K-3/II to KP, likely are looking forward to upgrading to the K-3 III.

I am one of those and I'm not. Other members have said the same. The fixed screen (and the emphasis on AF improvements) marks the K-3iii as primarily a sports and wildlife camera, rather than an all-rounder like the KP. A fixed screen is a big limitation for tripod use and for macro. If I were to get a K-3iii eventually, it would be as a dedicated wildlife camera, not a replacement for the KP.

When K-3 III buyers -- some of them -- receive their new K-3 IIIs, and start selling off their older bodies, whenever that starts to happen, there's going to be a surge in supply.

Just quietly, I don't think the K-3iii will be a big seller, at least not this year and not until it drops quite a lot from the expected launch price. (Ricoh spokespeople have said that the price, in yen, would be in the 'upper-two-hundred-thousands'. That could mean at the upper end of the range between 200,000 and 300,000 yen - $US1900-$US2800 - or the upper end of the range between 200,000 and 210,000 yen - ie about $US2000. Either way, it won't be cheap.) The ILC market was already in decline before the pandemic. I suspect that sales have dropped sharply since, because people are not taking vacations and not even getting out so much in many countries. Travel restrictions are likely to be in place for some time yet and the economic repercussions of the pandemic will continue to be felt well into next year at least. It's a bad time to launch a high-end camera.

The other problem with the K-3iii is that there isn't the range of telephoto lenses for it - in particular nothing more affordable like the Nikkor 200-500 or the Sigma/Tamron 150-600 models. With the K-3iii you would be looking at the DFA 150-450 or DA 560 and that's about it. As a sports/wildlife camera it becomes quite an expensive package, compared to the alternatives.