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06-24-2014, 09:25 AM - 1 Like   #421
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What are the odds?

One observer claims the likelihood of the mirror flutter/stutter problem arising is tiny/trivial based on the calculation of the total number of occurrences posted HERE divided by the total number of K3's manufactured. This is a flawed analysis because such tiny numbers of Pentax owners (let alone K3 owners) post here...or even READ here...at all. The more relevant analysis should be what are the odds, if the defect is truly 'rare' a person (such as Rabbit) would get TWO defective K3's in a row? But wait!--Rabbit claims there are at least 2 others who have ALSO gotten 2 defective K3's. Rabbit's analysis is the more accurate. The odds of having 3 people getting 2 new K3's with the same serious manufacturing defect are incredibly infinitesimal UNLESS the (false) presumption the defect is rare is wrong. If the defect is, however, common, then the odds of a user receiving 2 K3 lemons is substantially higher. Again, few Pentax owners even read this forum. So the odds of at least 3 of them getting double whammied by the K3 flaw is very interesting/curious unless you are into denial. Pentax/Ricoh, of course, has an incentive to be into denial.

The seriousness of the problem depends somewhat on your tolerance: If you're simply a casual shooter in a casual venue taking hobbyist shots and don't mind the mirror baffles raining debris on your sensor from the beating it takes, or the display screen freezing, or the memory card in slot #1 not being written to, then throw the dice. But don't be under the illusion this flaw is minuscule--it's not. Rather, it's very sporadic and unpredictable. The fact that it happens at all indicates a design flaw. No camera should experience mirror flutter/stutter. A simple FOR/WHILE loop with a limit (say of 3) within a second, or a similar logical limiter would have made the problem moot. If you're a SERIOUS photographer (weddings, courtroom photojournalism, stage performance, wildlife, street, investigative) then the K3 is NOT for you for obvious reasons. The K3 could end up causing you to be removed from the venue and becoming persona non grata. Worse, it could make ALL photographers unwelcome. It's like having a dog that piddle's on your host's floor.

Ricoh's reticence to be more transparent about the flaw may mean the company itself cannot be trusted to be genuine with its customers. That's a problem too--perhaps a bigger one than the K3 has. What are the odds? Do you feel lucky?

06-24-2014, 09:33 AM   #422
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You exhibit confirmation bias.

Assuming a random sample, the statistical probability of any single user receiving a second faulty camera is identical to the statistical probability of any single user receiving the first faulty camera. If the sample isn't random then it isn't a production-wide fault condition.

Good Grief. That's 9th Grade math.

Secondly, if the problem was production-wide the numbers of members here (regardless of the scale of the member K-3 owners relative to the total population of K-3 owners) should be larger - unless only a couple hundred PF members own a K-3.

QuoteOriginally posted by pinbalwyz Quote
One observer claims the likelihood of the mirror flutter/stutter problem arising is tiny/trivial based on the calculation of the total number of occurrences posted HERE divided by the total number of K3's manufactured. This is a flawed analysis because such tiny numbers of Pentax owners (let alone K3 owners) post here...or even READ here...at all. The more relevant analysis should be what are the odds, if the defect is truly 'rare' a person (such as Rabbit) would get TWO defective K3's in a row? But wait!--Rabbit claims there are at least 2 others who have ALSO gotten 2 defective K3's. Rabbit's analysis is the more accurate. The odds of having 3 people getting 2 new K3's with the same serious manufacturing defect are incredibly infinitesimal UNLESS the (false) presumption the defect is rare is wrong. If the defect is, however, common, then the odds of a user receiving 2 K3 lemons is substantially higher. Again, few Pentax owners even read this forum. So the odds of at least 3 of them getting double whammied by the K3 flaw is very interesting/curious unless you are into denial. Pentax/Ricoh, of course, has an incentive to be into denial.

The seriousness of the problem depends somewhat on your tolerance: If you're simply a casual shooter in a casual venue taking hobbyist shots and don't mind the mirror baffles raining debris on your sensor from the beating it takes, or the display screen freezing, or the memory card in slot #1 not being written to, then throw the dice. But don't be under the illusion this flaw is minuscule--it's not. Rather, it's very sporadic and unpredictable. The fact that it happens at all indicates a design flaw. No camera should experience mirror flutter/stutter. A simple FOR/WHILE loop with a limit (say of 3) within a second, or a similar logical limiter would have made the problem moot. If you're a SERIOUS photographer (weddings, courtroom photojournalism, stage performance, wildlife, street, investigative) then the K3 is NOT for you for obvious reasons. The K3 could end up causing you to be removed from the venue and becoming persona non grata. Worse, it could make ALL photographers unwelcome. It's like having a dog that piddle's on your host's floor.

Ricoh's reticence to be more transparent about the flaw may mean the company itself cannot be trusted to be genuine with its customers. That's a problem too--perhaps a bigger one than the K3 has. What are the odds? Do you feel lucky?

Last edited by monochrome; 06-24-2014 at 10:18 AM.
06-24-2014, 09:51 AM - 1 Like   #423
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QuoteQuote:
The seriousness of the problem depends somewhat on your tolerance: If you're simply a casual shooter in a casual venue taking hobbyist shots and don't mind the mirror baffles raining debris on your sensor from the beating it takes, or the display screen freezing, or the memory card in slot #1 not being written to, then throw the dice. But don't be under the illusion this flaw is minuscule--it's not.
It's not very serious if it doesn't happen to you... is it? It's not very serious if it happens once for 5 seconds in 12,000 exposures. My actual experience was it didn't cost me an image. I have lost many images because I didn't have the camera on the proper settings , or I left the camera set at -3EV for the sunset the night before. What's more likely, the camera failing or you doing something stupid?

The questions you need to answer before you start claiming this is a serious issue...
What camera is better?
How many people have lost critical images because of camera behaviour?

It's irresponsible to claim this is a big serious deal without those kinds of data. Which is more likely, your camera runs out of battery at a critical time, or a mirror flap failure?

You also have to realize, because it has happened to one camera, doesn't mean it's likely to happen to all cameras.

We spend way to much time on the forum hand holding people freaking out over very small issues. Sure it's a bummer a couple of people got two cameras that had to be returned. That's what warrantees are for. But telling me, I have a "serious issue", please. I don't have a serious issue. I've never even missed an exposure. I had to wait 30 seconds to take one, once in 12,000 exposures. You can say what ever you want, that is not a serious issue. For a few people it has been, for most, it's not even a concern.

It doesn't depend on my "tolerance" at all. There's almost nothing to tolerate.
06-24-2014, 11:59 AM   #424
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An update on my camera, first time I tried a time lapse, it got the flappy mirror after about 500 frames and several times immediately after (fortunately I was close enough that it woke me up). I've done 7 timelapses since without any issue (these are all overnight timelapses, usually 30 second exposures, 500-900 frames) and haven't had it happen in normal usage. I don't know if it's a factor, but the main difference between the first and subsequent timelapses is for the latter is the power source. The successful timelapses have used a regulated external power source during the timelapses (something like http://blog.trafficshaper.com/?p=392, but powered by two D-LI90s).

06-24-2014, 12:02 PM   #425
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QuoteOriginally posted by DRabbit Quote
JPT: There is no need for rumors. Pentax/Ricoh USA, CRIS and the service center in Germany have all confirmed there is a "base firmware" fix for people who have run into the issue. See here: https://www.pentaxforums.com/forums/172-pentax-k-3/254464-k3-crazy-mirror-sic...ml#post2847808

Whether the article means user-installable firmware or not, who knows. Because of translation issues, it's possible they simply read what has been posted here on PF and thought it was just "firmware" and not "base firmware that can only be installed by a service center". Time will tell. If there ends up being a user installable firmware update that "improves" the issue, that will be a good development. I just don't know why they can't seem to ELIMINATE the problem.



Keebler: Number of SD cards in the camera doesn't matter. This was a theory I put to the test a while ago and was able to reproduce mirror-flapping with both 1 or 2 SD cards in the K3... it just didn't matter.


As for statistics - I'm no statistician myself, probably the opposite of one since my math skills are pathetic - LOL. I can only say what I've repeated a few times now... How often you run into the problem seems to be linked to how much you use the camera. The more you use it, the more you will run into the problem. Pro shooters, heavy shooters, wedding shooters, time-lapse shooters... it seems they would all be more likely to run into the issue than the casual weekend shooter, and that's purely because of the number of shutter actuations being put on the K3.

Whether it concerns you personally or not, only the user can decide. For me, I was running into the problem way too often for me to be able to rely on the K3 to get the job done. My clients don't care if it happens once a day, once a week or once a month... if they are the ones that end up suffering because I lose a series of shots due to a faulty camera, they are going to be annoyed regardless of the probability of it happening again. I know I sound like a broken record, but if I were a wedding shooter, I'd be terrified to have it happen in the church where it's quiet and the mirror-flapping would not only cause me to miss important shots, but could disrupt the ceremony itself. Again, doesn't matter if it happens at one wedding or ten. Missed shots and an angry client is never good.

Whatever the probability factor for the K3 is, it's a whole lot higher than with a K5-II or K5-IIs.
How many times are you going to repeat the same story?

Andy Warhol called and your 15 minutes of fame has run out.....

Ray
06-24-2014, 12:15 PM   #426
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pinbalwyz - are you trolling?
besides "heavens are crashing" (really vague translation of an old saying in Latvian) posts in this thread, you haven't posted anything else.
do you own a K-3? some other Pentax gear? why exactly are you concerned?
no offense, just curious. you're spending some time on these posts, obviously it has to have some rational grounds

Last edited by karro; 06-24-2014 at 12:54 PM.
06-24-2014, 12:49 PM   #427
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We just got our K3 back yesterday from CRIS because the AF started doing some real funky things. We had them look at it for the mirror flapping issue also, though nothing special was mentioned on the invoice sent back with it. We have done around 500 images with it in the last 2 days and all seems well, the AF issue seems fixed and we can't find anything different in the way it acts, and it has not done the flap issue, but we don't do interval shooting. One interesting thing is that the camera asked for the language/date/time to be inputted when first turned on when we got it back, and the beep was back on(we always turn that off on our cameras) and the settings were re-set in the custom menus. But the User settings we put in were still there. Things like U1 having continuous AF with 27 AF points, while U2 had AFA with 9 AF points, etc. We would of thought they would of been re-set as well. Our guess is that they re-did the firmware that only service has access to, as well as the regular firmware we all update. Anyhow, just a guess.

Karen

06-24-2014, 07:11 PM   #428
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QuoteOriginally posted by David&karen Quote
..Our guess is that they re-did the firmware that only service has access to, as well as the regular firmware we all update. Anyhow, just a guess.

Karen
And there is a third firmware, supplied by God from above, that helps achieve that pixie dust quality of some shots only Pentax camera can do. It switches on from time to time, to surprise us pleasantly. And that is why we remain faithful Pentaxians.
06-25-2014, 02:00 AM   #429
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New firmware for the Pentax K-3 camera coming in July | Photo Rumors

QuoteQuote:
Pentax will announce a new firmware update for the K-3 DSLR camera in early July that will include a fix for the mirror flutter problem and a new diffraction correction feature that is already available in the new 645z.
06-25-2014, 06:12 AM   #430
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Norm, not to sound rude, but apparently you haven't followed the story or you think I'm an idiot...

QuoteOriginally posted by normhead Quote
So let me see if I understand this correctly, you have clients, but not a back up body? ...
Of course I have backup bodies. When I owned the K3, I also had a K5-II, K5 and K-01.

A backup body does not help. Why? Because the only way to prevent mirror-flapping from happening is to not use that body at all. It isn't predictable. It's not a matter of the body failing completely, so you just switch bodies. It happens like this: You are going along happily, shooting and taking your photos or shooting time-lapse (as in my case), and then the camera decides it's going to suddenly start doing mirror-flapping. The shots are lost, and as in my case, they cannot be recreated. Whether you switch bodies at that point or not is besides the point, the moment and relevant shots are already gone.

QuoteOriginally posted by normhead Quote
From my perspective, a client should never even know you went to a back-up body. You change bodies the way you change lenses, pros used to have to change bodies all the time because they were constantly running out of film, and handing one body to an assistant. I'm having a bit of trouble understanding the situation you are describing, maybe you could post a real life scenario where this has affected you.
As described above, there would be no way to predict and prevent a mirror-flapping event. The only way to avoid it is to not use the body effected AT ALL... which was the decision I finally made.

You want real life scenarios? I shoot time-lapse of architectural installations. I can't ask the contractors to "do over" the moments I've lost. These aren't staged, they are real-life installations in real homes. I also often have more than one camera going, so I'm back and forth between two bodies... babysitting a body to make sure it doesn't suddenly go into mirror-flapping craziness or lockup mode is impractical... the body needs to keep performing whether I'm standing two feet away from it or not. The K3 was not able to perform this simple task.

And yes, of course bodies fail. But to give you some comparison, I now have two K5-IIs bodies. I haven't had a single problem with either. I've been using these two K5-IIs bodies since I got rid of the K3, without even a little glitch. Last week, I had both cameras set up in different rooms of a home for nearly eight hours running continuously. Not a single problem with either. No locking up, no mirror-flapping, they just work as they are supposed to. My experience with the K5-II has been the same. With the K3, at nearly every shoot I went to I was running into mirror-flapping.



QuoteOriginally posted by ofer4 Quote
Norm, backup body or not, she doesn't have a backup wedding. I appreciate that malfunctions happen, but I also appreciate that we customers should insist that a product this expensive shouldn't go bat-crap crazy once in a blue moon. I don't own a K-3, but my K-r had this problem...or at least similar symptoms. It became completely prohibitive to take photos with (but since fixed). I would have been a nervous wreck using that body in a professional setting, even with a backup.
And Ofer4 presents another example of a real-life scenario. Me personally, I'd have been terrified to use the K3 at a wedding. Should mirror-flapping occur in the church you would lose shots, shots that can't be recreated, AND you'd piss off the bride and groom when your camera makes enough noise to be disruptive. You might even piss off the videographer by having noise contaminate HIS footage.

As a wedding photographer, you might not run into the issue as often as I did shooting time-lapse, but it would certainly be more often than the casual weekend shooter. At the frequency I was running into the problem, I'd suggest that someone shooting weddings regularly (as their main business) could run into the issue once a month or every other month. That could be a lot of annoyed brides and grooms.


QuoteOriginally posted by goubejp Quote
Doesnt' sound bad for me, as an engineer. The Mirror flop is a random failure, it is very difficult to fix cause there isn't scenario that allows to reproduce the problem and hence to test the fix. I myself encountered only once in february, and never again. They have to perform extensive, long duration tests to be sure that the fix works. They really can't afford to recall the K3s, apply the fix, and have users still reporting Mirror flop issues on a K3 after fix/retrofit
I only somewhat agree. I was REGULARLY running into the problem... and with both my first and second K3 body. I could reproduce it regularly. This is one of the reasons I worked with the Pentax specialist for so long, sending him reports of what was happening, in was conditions and with what settings. There was nothing random about it for me. Probably the hardest part for them to figure out is that it seemed like there was nothing specific that caused it... not settings or SD cards or battery charge level or weather. It could happen inside or outside. It happened whether cold or warm. It happened in a variety of modes with a variety of lenses.

If they really want to know whether their fix works, they should send me another K3.



QuoteOriginally posted by normhead Quote
Exactly, which is why I say this isn't a K-3 issue, it's an issue of professionalism. If you shoot enough, a camera is eventually going to fail, and it's up to you to deal with that professionally. Or a brand new $10,000 camera can be dropped, or fall off a table, or whatever. As mentioned, you only get one chance to do a wedding.
Yeah, the K3 wasn't up to the task, but it didn't take a $10,000 camera body to do the job. The cheaper K5-IIs and K5-II are more than capable.
And I'll repeat it again... the only solution to avoid mirror-flapping isn't a backup body... it's to not rely on it at all.


QuoteOriginally posted by normhead Quote
If you imagine yourself in a professional situation, imagine yourself in a professional situation. Don't imagine yourself shooting a wedding with one K-3 or even one Hasselblad, or one Canon or one Nikon. That's an amateur situation.
You seem to be harping on the fact that having two bodies in any scenario would somehow save you. In a studio environment shooting portraits or food, sure... because your camera failing doesn't matter. In a situation where the camera fails completely, yes, of course a backup body is what will save you.

But in a live event where you cannot recreate the photos you are taking, not so much. If you lose the shots because the camera decides to go mirror-crazy, what are you going to do? How is your backup body going to help? It's not. This is what you're failing to realize.

The bride is saying her vows. There's beautiful light and a beautiful quiet moment where she's looking at the groom. You go to take the photos and BAM, mirror-crazies. Several people in the church turns to looks at you and your noisy camera. You don't get the shots of the bride saying her vows. Even if you are quick-draw-mcgraw and you're able to get the battery out of the K3 to make it stop making noise AND you're able to get another camera up to your face in the same split second, do you think you're able to capture that same moment? Likely not... And likely the bride and groom are pretty f-ing pissed at you for disturbing their vows with your noisy, malfunctioning camera.

Want another less dramatic example? Lets say you're a bird photographer. You spot a life bird and want to get a shot. You quietly get your camera up to your face and go to fire off some photos. BAM, mirror-flapping. The bird flies away. Your camera flapping like that flying bird scares off anything nearby. How does having a backup body help you?

You're a paparazzi. Angelina Jolie comes out of diner and you spot her. You go to fire off some shots and BAM, mirror-crazies. She quickly gets into her car and drives off... there were only moments between the door of the diner and her exit strategy. How does your backup body help you now?

In my case, there are no angry wedding folks, or celebrities or rare birds to contend with... but not being able to leave the K3 unattended for even 5 minutes without risking losing blocks of time-lapse footage, footage that cannot be recreated, became a real hassle-and-a-half. The risk of losing shots became too great. The ONLY logical decision became to get rid of the K3 all together.

---------- Post added 06-25-14 at 08:35 AM ----------

This is identical to the rumor posted yesterday... and sites that source. That source also doesn't seem to claim a "fix" but an "improvement" -- for what it's worth.

Last edited by DRabbit; 06-25-2014 at 06:36 AM.
06-25-2014, 06:54 AM   #431
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QuoteOriginally posted by DRabbit Quote

This is identical to the rumor posted yesterday... and sites that source. That source also doesn't seem to claim a "fix" but an "improvement" -- for what it's worth.
Mmmm?


7月初旬から中旬くらいにK-3の新しいファームウェアがリリースされる。
時折報告が挙がっていたミラーのバタつきの問題が改善される。
645Zに採用されていた回折補正機能が利用可能になる。

translated to

The new firmware for the K-3 will be released in mid-long from the beginning of July.
Problem of fluttering of a mirror report had been raised from time to time is improved.
Diffraction correction feature that is employed in the 645Z becomes available

or really

A new K-3 firmware will be released in mid to late July it is to adress the fluttering mirror problem
Diffraction correction feature as employed in the 645Z will also be made available.

For what it worth LoL !!!
06-25-2014, 06:55 AM   #432
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DRabbit... lets get down to brass tacks... how many frames have you lost, where you couldn't just change bodies and keep shooting. I get real tired of what "could" happen real quick.
And what camera for the same money is better? Not on this specific issue but overall?

What are we going to do, sit here all day and make up scenarios. It's like me saying if Anglina Jolie ever walks out in front of me, the WR on my K-3 and 18-135 is going to protect the camera from my uncontrolled drooling. I don't want to lose all those shots because my camera and lens aren't water resistant. What point is there in making up stuff?

The fact that you can make up scenarios in no way means it's ever going to happen, at all, ever, forget about to you or me. At some point you have to start keeping it real.

Thinking a little bit more about it, if I was asked to do a wedding, iI'd want a 645z, a D4s for candids. Somehow, I just don't see myself doing a wedding with a K-3. I'll rent what I don't own. I also don't see myself doing a wedding for less than 5 or 6k. I know what I need and I won't settle for less. The thought of doing a wedding with any small format camera for anything but candids just scares the bejeebies out of me.

And as for the kiss the bride moment, even when I do freebies for people who don't want to pay a real pro- I always have at least one back up shooter, I'm happier with 2, because you never know who's going to have the good angle. But hey, that's just me.

The question has become are you going to live on the edge with a K-3... and the answer is "only if you're crazy". Now you have to decide what you can live on the edge with... my plan is simple, don't live on the edge, period, get the gear you need for what you do, and don't assume any system will never fail you.

Last edited by normhead; 06-25-2014 at 07:29 AM.
06-25-2014, 07:04 AM   #433
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QuoteOriginally posted by normhead Quote
DRabbit... lets get down to brass tacks... how many frames have you lost, where you couldn't just change bodies and keep shooting. I get real tired of what "could" happen real quick.
And what camera for the same money is better? Not on this specific issue but overall?

What are we going to do, sit here all day and make up scenarios. It's like me saying if Anglina Jolie ever walks out in front of me, the WR on my K-3 and 18-135 is going to protect the camera from my uncontrolled drooling. I don't want to lose all those shots because my camera and lens aren't water resistant. What point is there in making up stuff?
Dude, you asked for examples. I explained exactly what I'm doing, and someone else mentioned weddings as well. You seem to have a hard time understanding how a backup body wouldn't solve the problem, so I tried to be really clear. You harped on it in fact... so I equally harped on it.

I lost almost an entire shoot because in the last half hour of shooting a full-day time-lapse, the camera went into crazy-mirror-mode and corrupted the SD card. It took me an entire weekend to recover the data.

At the beginning of owning the K3, there were lots of times I lost chunks of footage... After a short time though, I started babysitting the camera constantly to minimize the impact. Not ideal when it's 10º F outside. Not ideal when I have to attend to another camera. Not ideal when I have to shoot stills from different angles as well. It just became too risky and too impractical, and I shouldn't have to jump through hoops to make a camera I paid a lot of money for be able to get the job done.

QuoteOriginally posted by normhead Quote
And what camera for the same money is better? Not on this specific issue but overall?
Did you even read my reply other than skim it?

K5-II and K5-IIs. Perform exactly as they should. They are cheaper. As of yesterday I have about 50,000 shutter actuations on the K5-IIs bodies. Not a single problem or issue. No locking up. No mirror-flapping. No snags or hitches at all. Same thing with the K5-II... I used it right up until it died at about 115,000 shutter actuations (expected it). Not one second of trouble in all those shots. They are just flat-out more reliable, period.
06-25-2014, 07:09 AM - 2 Likes   #434
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Come on, leave it. Don't attack the messenger.
06-25-2014, 02:43 PM - 1 Like   #435
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QuoteOriginally posted by DRabbit Quote
The bride is saying her vows. There's beautiful light and a beautiful quiet moment where she's looking at the groom. You go to take the photos and BAM, mirror-crazies. Several people in the church turns to look at you
... because you're swearing like a sailor at the top of your lungs.
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