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02-11-2015, 05:43 AM   #16
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QuoteOriginally posted by Arne Bo Quote
Canīt wait for the announcement at CP+. After that we will see clearer. (hopefully)
I'm not sure it will be clearer? Would think they'll try to hide the specs as long as possible. especially if it will have special features.
this said, can't wait either :-)

02-11-2015, 08:09 AM   #17
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i would think not at CP+, but since the k5 to k5iis took 2 years, maybe later this year we'll see k3 ii? the FF throws things a little out of whack.

i tried to map out the previous release dates to see if i could predict when the next camera would come out. if you look at the flagships (k10, k20, k7, k5), they were released within 16 months of each other. k5 to k5ii/k5iis took almost 24 months exactly. the k3 came a little over a year later. if the release schedules were 16 months for the flagship, i would've expected the ks-2 to be the flagship, it's exactly 16 months between the k3 and ks-2 announcements.

why is the ks-2 in the ks line when the ks-1 was just announced 6 months ago??? i felt like i just read the ks-1 review on this website and lo and behold, there's the ks-2 announcement. the entry/mid level line (k100, k100super, k200, km, kx, k01, k30, k50/500, ks1) has a much more unpredictable release schedule. it averages to about a year or so, with some weird outliers. kx to k-01: ~29 months. k01 to k30: ~3-4 months. you can argue that the k01 is not in the same line, but then the release from kx to k30 is 32 months!

actually, the more i look at the dates between releases, the more interesting the k-01 becomes. at first, it looked like there was a drought in the year 2011(between k5 and k5ii took two years, not 16 months). but, the k-01 comes in 16 months after the k5. and if you throw the Q line into the equation, Q to Q10 took ~15 months. Q7 to QS1 took ~14 months. But the Q10 to Q7 took 9 months? what gives? the Q7 is 16 months from the announcement of the K01! as is the k50...

what does this all mean? i have no idea... but it looks like i would expect something new every 16 months. it doesn't make sense typing it out either, but here's the narrative i've completely made up:

a core team worked on the flagship line, releasing a camera every 16 months. marc newson comes around and they want to work with him. k01 comes out 16 months later. in between this, pentax is sold from hoya to ricoh, engineers are pissed, maybe restructured, some leave, and the remaining team works on the Q line and gives it a sensor upgrade. or, maybe they worked on the k50, which is also about the 16 months from the k01. but why? km to k30 took 32 months (2x 16 months). maybe that team couldn't come up with anything. maybe it was the hoya to ricoh. whatever team came up with k30 probably came up with the k3 16 months later, then the ks2 16 months after that.

i wonder who would be working on the full frame and the k3 ii? the 645 team? 16 months from ks-1: ~feb/mar next year. 16 months from 645z: ~june of this year. maybe FF this summer and k3 ii next year? or k3ii oct of this year to follow a 2 year incremental update?

i sound like a crazy who saw an inkling of a pattern and is theorizing about it...

Last edited by ppppsssstttt; 02-11-2015 at 08:16 AM.
02-11-2015, 08:51 AM   #18
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QuoteOriginally posted by ppppsssstttt Quote
i would think not at CP+, but since the k5 to k5iis took 2 years, maybe later this year we'll see k3 ii? the FF throws things a little out of whack.

i tried to map out the previous release dates to see if i could predict when the next camera would come out. .....
i sound like a crazy who saw an inkling of a pattern and is theorizing about it...
No, you're not crazy. No. No. No. No. Ok, maybe.
02-11-2015, 09:31 AM   #19
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QuoteOriginally posted by ppppsssstttt Quote
i tried to map out the previous release dates to see if i could predict when the next camera would come out. if you look at the flagships (k10, k20, k7, k5), they were released within 16 months of each other. k5 to k5ii/k5iis took almost 24 months exactly. the k3 came a little over a year later. if the release schedules were 16 months for the flagship, i would've expected the ks-2 to be the flagship, it's exactly 16 months between the k3 and ks-2 announcements.
There should be a pattern to release dates but life and business cycles happen. As a result product cycles can look random.

For instance, the tsunami threw everyone's product replacement cycles off - added 6 months to everything.. Saw a graph of it once. You are correct about 16-18 month normal cycles.

For instance, K5 -> K5II/IIs was supposedly a stopgap because Ricoh pulled the K-3 back for more development - supposedly that was when Ricoh really took control of the brand and product development.

For instance, 645 supposedly was more successful than expected and many product development timelines were put on hiatus as all efforts were focused on 645. FF was supposedly pushed back. Now FF has a similar effort as development catches up - especially optics.

If K-S2 in not analogous to K50 replacement then maybe K50 replacement is just pushed back by FF; and maybe so is K3II. Otherwise maybe there is a change in product development direction that we don't see yet and can't know. Or maybe the rumored major FW Upgrade in April will add things we can't see yet, extending the life of the K-3. Or maybe K-3 replacement is a summer release. We can't know.

Above is all hearsay - credible hearsay, but not inside info, nonetheless.


Last edited by monochrome; 02-11-2015 at 09:37 AM.
02-11-2015, 10:06 AM   #20
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
You are correct about 16-18 month normal cycles.
thank you monochrome, i'm not that crazy!
02-11-2015, 12:01 PM   #21
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I don't think they will. But then again could you imagine the stir created if they released a FF Monster AND an upgraded new K3 ? Pentax would be all the "BUZZ" for at least a year , if not more.
Im praying FF will come in at about $1900 but it will probably be at least a Grand higher.
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