What will the cameras and the camera industry look like in 3-5 years

**KC0PET** · 01-23-2016, 10:40 AM

Originally posted by AggieDad

I'm surprised there has been little mention of Apple. As I mentioned in another thread, they have over 800 engineers in their camera design department alone. Perhaps they are not all working on the iPhone camera.

Remember, Apple creates paradigm shifts. And it has extraordinarily deep pockets - deeper than almost everyone else put together. Who knows what evil lurks in Cupertino?

IMO Apple was more about paradigm shifts when they were smaller. Now that they have built am empire, they probably are more interested in status quo (aka everyone wants an iPhone). Too much of a paradigm shift might bring them crashing down. Large organizations do not change as easily as small ones do. I see Apple is up to 80,000 employees now.

If Apple does come out with a "camera" I suspect it will have the look and feel of an iPhone. Just my $0.02

Auzzie-Phoenix · 01-23-2016, 11:19 AM

The current helmsman over at apple isn't exactly someone willing to take a lot of risks. They certainly don't seem to have any real vision or motivation that seemed present under Jobs. As for M$, I highly doubt they'd branch out into cameras. They might buy up some camera tech to slap it into the nokia windows phones, but other than that... nope.

**monochrome** · 01-23-2016, 12:36 PM

First define camera. Still I maging is being subsumed into multi-use devices along with video. 8K will be standard video in imaging devices in 5 years. Still image devices will be specialty items - not necessary at all.

Analog will make a comeback as the enthusiast device. Hollywood will ensure film survives.

Nikon will be absorbed by a much larger imaging company - someone like Panasonic. Sony will drop A mount.

Ricoh will release a FF MILC with a hybrid VF, OLED LCD and a new mount. It won't be Pentax branded.

Nicolas06 · 01-24-2016, 03:14 PM

Funny that analog comeback and the previous analogy with vinyl. Well today film sell more I think than vinyl and has more market share ! There already the Fuji, there the lomo and one can literaly still buy everywhere in the world film camera for 1 time use with film inside.

Film didn't really left.

As for hollywood, this really depend, the gear is here to do 100% digital but the latest tarantino was made on film... Like something that is not done that often.

wildman · 01-25-2016, 04:55 AM

Speaking of the mass market -

I think for most folks the need for a dedicated camera will pretty much disappear in the future.
The ability to capture images for most people will become a subsystem rather like we buy a car and assume it will come with a radio.
I'm thinking of last Thanksgiving and my Sister who captured it with her tablet.

I think this will the death knell for the low end but relatively complex large camera market like the k50.
A dedicated camera company will find they have to become more specialized and cater to a more professional market and drop their low end lines.
In other words something like a K3 will be entry level.

**ffking** · 01-25-2016, 05:04 AM

Originally posted by wildman

Speaking of the mass market -

I think for most folks the need for a dedicated camera will pretty much disappear in the future.
The ability to capture images for most people will become a subsystem rather like we buy a car and assume it will come with a radio.
I'm thinking of last Thanksgiving and my Sister who captured it with her tablet.

I think this will the death knell for the low end but relatively complex large camera market like the k50.
A dedicated camera company will find they have to become more specialized and cater to a more professional market and drop their low end lines.
In other words something like a K3 will be entry level.

I think that might be about right - but people who take their photography seriously are not ever going to be content with built-in cameras, just at they kept on buying SLRs when point and shoot film cameras were taking the main share of the popular market. But no camera can do or be everything everybody wants - the real question is whether there are enough serious photographers to make the production of serious cameras viable, especially as as they are further differentiated into landscape cameras, action cameras, studio cameras etc etc

wildman · 01-25-2016, 05:29 AM

Originally posted by ffking

the real question is whether there are enough serious photographers to make the production of serious cameras viable

Perhaps the "real question" is how many companies will have to get out of the camera business to allow the remaining companies to survive in the constricted specialized pro market of the future?

Last edited by wildman; 01-25-2016 at 05:59 AM.

reeftool · 01-26-2016, 08:26 AM

In 3 years, probably not much will change. Looking out 5 years is more difficult. Digital camera technology has matured somewhat and the explosive sales growth has dramatically slowed. In today's business climate, it's not enough to just make a good product and turn a profit. Since all the major players are publicly traded companies, investors want good numbers every quarter and that cause all kinds of problems. Looking ahead 5 years, I think there will be fewer choices in the market. In reading the financial news, this past year hasn't been kind to the camera industry. While there are some bright spots, overall sales have been dismal.

Predicting who will survive is difficult because numbers are fudged. Oly has already had big problems and is currently in a major difficulty involving their medical products division and is facing massive fines and lawsuits. Sony has some winners in their stable and their sensor business is strong but overall, they are very shaky and have been taking huge losses. The same with Panasonic. Nikon and Canon have been down 20% or more the past couple of quarters and Riicoh at least is breaking even. What happens isn't so much on whether they survive but what the shareholders are willing to tolerate.

osv · 01-26-2016, 06:50 PM - **1 Like**

sony turned a solid profit overall last year, they aren't going anywhere.

the future is mirrorless, as smartphones have proven, and sony is in a better position to take advantage of that than anyone.

where that leaves canikon is anyone's guess, but if they keep failing to innovate, the next five years are going to be ugly.

Nicolas06 · 01-26-2016, 11:38 PM

Originally posted by osv

sony turned a solid profit overall last year, they aren't going anywhere.

the future is mirrorless, as smartphones have proven, and sony is in a better position to take advantage of that than anyone.

where that leaves canikon is anyone's guess, but if they keep failing to innovate, the next five years are going to be ugly.

On official financial reports, as a whole Sony is still losing money, like the previous years. This is not a big loss, sure, but a loss anyway.

Where I agree is that Sony has been doing that for many years and it should prevent them to continue.

reeftool · 02-02-2016, 06:02 AM

Originally posted by osv

sony turned a solid profit overall last year, they aren't going anywhere.

Really?
Sony camera and sensor business units report drop in sales in 2015: Digital Photography Review

**KC0PET** · 02-02-2016, 05:06 PM

Originally posted by reeftool

Really?
Sony camera and sensor business units report drop in sales in 2015: Digital Photography Review

That stuff is all smoke and mirrors. I'm sure Sony made plenty in 2015. (Sorry to be cynical).

Sony will be around in 5 years. I just hope that Pentax is too...

**clackers** · 02-02-2016, 06:01 PM

Originally posted by KC0PET

That stuff is all smoke and mirrors. I'm sure Sony made plenty in 2015. (Sorry to be cynical).

Sony will be around in 5 years. I just hope that Pentax is too...

"Smoke and mirrors", KC0PET?

What can be more obvious than the numbers quoted?

2.6 million cameras sold in Q3 2014 versus only 1.8 million in the same quarter, 2015?

Sony's investors may force it to quit the camera market and concentrate on sensors. It's already separated the two, as it did loss making TVs, computers and phones.

osv · 02-02-2016, 06:08 PM

Originally posted by reeftool

Really?
Sony camera and sensor business units report drop in sales in 2015: Digital Photography Review

seems pretty clear to me? but perhaps i'm just better informed; i actually read the link that you posted: "Sales in the Imaging Products unit dropped by 5%, due to decreases in unit sales of digital still and video cameras, reflecting 'a contraction of the market, partially offset by an improvement in the product mix of digital cameras reflecting a shift to high value-added models.' In other words, they're selling fewer cheap compacts and more RX and a7-series cameras. Operating income went up by over 20%, however, due the aforementioned shift to higher-end digital cameras."

moving on to the sony sensor business: "In the period leading up to the earnings announcement, investors had lowered expectations for the quarter based on the belief that demand for Apple’s latest iPhones, the 6S and 6S Plus, had been weak. Several companies that supply iPhone parts to Apple recently blamed a lack of demand for their lower-than-expected financial results."
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/27/technology/apple-earnings-iphone-sales.html?_r=0

yes, sony made a solid profit in 2015: "The company’s U.S. shares jumped the most in more than seven years... As Apple Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co. reel from the twin blows of a global smartphone slump and emerging-markets uncertainty, Sony posted better-than-expected results. A 33-percent surge in net income to 120.1 billion yen ($997 million) in the December quarter appeared to endorse its move toward gaming and entertainment, confining mobile exposure mainly to the sophisticated camera sensors it’s known for.

...The company kept its forecast for the highest annual profit in eight years. Operating income for the quarter was 202.1 billion yen, 16 percent more than estimates while sales of 2.58 trillion yen surpassed the 2.53 trillion yen expected by analysts. Sony’s American depository receipts rallied 18 percent to $23.88, their biggest jump since October 2008. The ADRs, which rose 20 percent in 2015, recovered much of this month’s decline, leaving them down 3 percent this year." James Bond, Adele Save Sony Profit in Global Smartphone Rut - Bloomberg Business

**KC0PET** · 02-02-2016, 06:37 PM

Originally posted by clackers

What can be more obvious than the numbers quoted?

That's exactly it, they only quote the numbers they want you to see. I have worked for a large organization for a long time and I have seen the numbers "massaged" to push an agenda many, many times. If Sony does get out of the business of making cameras I doubt it has to do with "numbers". They may use the numbers to make the decision sound good, but it will probably have little to do with it.

There are so many details behind what seems like a simple statement, "2.6 million cameras sold" that it could make your head spin. I have seen the games and how they are played.

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01-23-2016, 10:40 AM	#31
KC0PET Loyal Site Supporter Join Date: Oct 2015 Location: Central Missouri Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 6,273	Originally posted by AggieDad I'm surprised there has been little mention of Apple. As I mentioned in another thread, they have over 800 engineers in their camera design department alone. Perhaps they are not all working on the iPhone camera. Remember, Apple creates paradigm shifts. And it has extraordinarily deep pockets - deeper than almost everyone else put together. Who knows what evil lurks in Cupertino? IMO Apple was more about paradigm shifts when they were smaller. Now that they have built am empire, they probably are more interested in status quo (aka everyone wants an iPhone). Too much of a paradigm shift might bring them crashing down. Large organizations do not change as easily as small ones do. I see Apple is up to 80,000 employees now. If Apple does come out with a "camera" I suspect it will have the look and feel of an iPhone. Just my $0.02

01-23-2016, 11:19 AM	#32
Auzzie-Phoenix Veteran Member Join Date: Sep 2014 Photos: Albums Posts: 1,020	The current helmsman over at apple isn't exactly someone willing to take a lot of risks. They certainly don't seem to have any real vision or motivation that seemed present under Jobs. As for M$, I highly doubt they'd branch out into cameras. They might buy up some camera tech to slap it into the nokia windows phones, but other than that... nope.

01-23-2016, 12:36 PM	#33
monochrome Loyal Site Supporter Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Working From Home Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 26,276	First define camera. Still I maging is being subsumed into multi-use devices along with video. 8K will be standard video in imaging devices in 5 years. Still image devices will be specialty items - not necessary at all. Analog will make a comeback as the enthusiast device. Hollywood will ensure film survives. Nikon will be absorbed by a much larger imaging company - someone like Panasonic. Sony will drop A mount. Ricoh will release a FF MILC with a hybrid VF, OLED LCD and a new mount. It won't be Pentax branded.

01-24-2016, 03:14 PM	#34
Nicolas06 Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 4,854	Funny that analog comeback and the previous analogy with vinyl. Well today film sell more I think than vinyl and has more market share ! There already the Fuji, there the lomo and one can literaly still buy everywhere in the world film camera for 1 time use with film inside. Film didn't really left. As for hollywood, this really depend, the gear is here to do 100% digital but the latest tarantino was made on film... Like something that is not done that often.

01-25-2016, 04:55 AM	#35
wildman Veteran Member Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: Flyover America Posts: 4,469	Speaking of the mass market - I think for most folks the need for a dedicated camera will pretty much disappear in the future. The ability to capture images for most people will become a subsystem rather like we buy a car and assume it will come with a radio. I'm thinking of last Thanksgiving and my Sister who captured it with her tablet. I think this will the death knell for the low end but relatively complex large camera market like the k50. A dedicated camera company will find they have to become more specialized and cater to a more professional market and drop their low end lines. In other words something like a K3 will be entry level.

01-25-2016, 05:04 AM	#36
ffking Site Supporter Join Date: Nov 2015 Location: Old South Wales Posts: 6,038	Originally posted by wildman Speaking of the mass market - I think for most folks the need for a dedicated camera will pretty much disappear in the future. The ability to capture images for most people will become a subsystem rather like we buy a car and assume it will come with a radio. I'm thinking of last Thanksgiving and my Sister who captured it with her tablet. I think this will the death knell for the low end but relatively complex large camera market like the k50. A dedicated camera company will find they have to become more specialized and cater to a more professional market and drop their low end lines. In other words something like a K3 will be entry level. I think that might be about right - but people who take their photography seriously are not ever going to be content with built-in cameras, just at they kept on buying SLRs when point and shoot film cameras were taking the main share of the popular market. But no camera can do or be everything everybody wants - the real question is whether there are enough serious photographers to make the production of serious cameras viable, especially as as they are further differentiated into landscape cameras, action cameras, studio cameras etc etc

01-25-2016, 05:29 AM	#37
wildman Veteran Member Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: Flyover America Posts: 4,469	Originally posted by ffking the real question is whether there are enough serious photographers to make the production of serious cameras viable Perhaps the "real question" is how many companies will have to get out of the camera business to allow the remaining companies to survive in the constricted specialized pro market of the future? Last edited by wildman; 01-25-2016 at 05:59 AM.

01-26-2016, 08:26 AM	#38
reeftool Pentaxian Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Upstate New York Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 9,553	In 3 years, probably not much will change. Looking out 5 years is more difficult. Digital camera technology has matured somewhat and the explosive sales growth has dramatically slowed. In today's business climate, it's not enough to just make a good product and turn a profit. Since all the major players are publicly traded companies, investors want good numbers every quarter and that cause all kinds of problems. Looking ahead 5 years, I think there will be fewer choices in the market. In reading the financial news, this past year hasn't been kind to the camera industry. While there are some bright spots, overall sales have been dismal. Predicting who will survive is difficult because numbers are fudged. Oly has already had big problems and is currently in a major difficulty involving their medical products division and is facing massive fines and lawsuits. Sony has some winners in their stable and their sensor business is strong but overall, they are very shaky and have been taking huge losses. The same with Panasonic. Nikon and Canon have been down 20% or more the past couple of quarters and Riicoh at least is breaking even. What happens isn't so much on whether they survive but what the shareholders are willing to tolerate.

01-26-2016, 06:50 PM - 1 Like	#39
osv Veteran Member Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: So Cal Photos: Gallery Posts: 2,080	sony turned a solid profit overall last year, they aren't going anywhere. the future is mirrorless, as smartphones have proven, and sony is in a better position to take advantage of that than anyone. where that leaves canikon is anyone's guess, but if they keep failing to innovate, the next five years are going to be ugly.

01-26-2016, 11:38 PM	#40
Nicolas06 Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 4,854	Originally posted by osv sony turned a solid profit overall last year, they aren't going anywhere. the future is mirrorless, as smartphones have proven, and sony is in a better position to take advantage of that than anyone. where that leaves canikon is anyone's guess, but if they keep failing to innovate, the next five years are going to be ugly. On official financial reports, as a whole Sony is still losing money, like the previous years. This is not a big loss, sure, but a loss anyway. Where I agree is that Sony has been doing that for many years and it should prevent them to continue.

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02-02-2016, 06:02 AM	#41
reeftool Pentaxian Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Upstate New York Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 9,553	Originally posted by osv sony turned a solid profit overall last year, they aren't going anywhere. Really? Sony camera and sensor business units report drop in sales in 2015: Digital Photography Review

02-02-2016, 05:06 PM	#42
KC0PET Loyal Site Supporter Join Date: Oct 2015 Location: Central Missouri Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 6,273	Originally posted by reeftool Really? Sony camera and sensor business units report drop in sales in 2015: Digital Photography Review That stuff is all smoke and mirrors. I'm sure Sony made plenty in 2015. (Sorry to be cynical). Sony will be around in 5 years. I just hope that Pentax is too...

02-02-2016, 06:01 PM	#43
clackers Otis Memorial Pentaxian Join Date: Jul 2013 Location: Melbourne Photos: Albums Posts: 16,397	Originally posted by KC0PET That stuff is all smoke and mirrors. I'm sure Sony made plenty in 2015. (Sorry to be cynical). Sony will be around in 5 years. I just hope that Pentax is too... "Smoke and mirrors", KC0PET? What can be more obvious than the numbers quoted? 2.6 million cameras sold in Q3 2014 versus only 1.8 million in the same quarter, 2015? Sony's investors may force it to quit the camera market and concentrate on sensors. It's already separated the two, as it did loss making TVs, computers and phones.

02-02-2016, 06:08 PM	#44
osv Veteran Member Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: So Cal Photos: Gallery Posts: 2,080	Originally posted by reeftool Really? Sony camera and sensor business units report drop in sales in 2015: Digital Photography Review seems pretty clear to me? but perhaps i'm just better informed; i actually read the link that you posted: "Sales in the Imaging Products unit dropped by 5%, due to decreases in unit sales of digital still and video cameras, reflecting 'a contraction of the market, partially offset by an improvement in the product mix of digital cameras reflecting a shift to high value-added models.' In other words, they're selling fewer cheap compacts and more RX and a7-series cameras. Operating income went up by over 20%, however, due the aforementioned shift to higher-end digital cameras." moving on to the sony sensor business: "In the period leading up to the earnings announcement, investors had lowered expectations for the quarter based on the belief that demand for Apple’s latest iPhones, the 6S and 6S Plus, had been weak. Several companies that supply iPhone parts to Apple recently blamed a lack of demand for their lower-than-expected financial results." http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/27/technology/apple-earnings-iphone-sales.html?_r=0 yes, sony made a solid profit in 2015: "The company’s U.S. shares jumped the most in more than seven years... As Apple Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co. reel from the twin blows of a global smartphone slump and emerging-markets uncertainty, Sony posted better-than-expected results. A 33-percent surge in net income to 120.1 billion yen ($997 million) in the December quarter appeared to endorse its move toward gaming and entertainment, confining mobile exposure mainly to the sophisticated camera sensors it’s known for. ...The company kept its forecast for the highest annual profit in eight years. Operating income for the quarter was 202.1 billion yen, 16 percent more than estimates while sales of 2.58 trillion yen surpassed the 2.53 trillion yen expected by analysts. Sony’s American depository receipts rallied 18 percent to $23.88, their biggest jump since October 2008. The ADRs, which rose 20 percent in 2015, recovered much of this month’s decline, leaving them down 3 percent this year." James Bond, Adele Save Sony Profit in Global Smartphone Rut - Bloomberg Business

02-02-2016, 06:37 PM	#45
KC0PET Loyal Site Supporter Join Date: Oct 2015 Location: Central Missouri Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 6,273	Originally posted by clackers What can be more obvious than the numbers quoted? That's exactly it, they only quote the numbers they want you to see. I have worked for a large organization for a long time and I have seen the numbers "massaged" to push an agenda many, many times. If Sony does get out of the business of making cameras I doubt it has to do with "numbers". They may use the numbers to make the decision sound good, but it will probably have little to do with it. There are so many details behind what seems like a simple statement, "2.6 million cameras sold" that it could make your head spin. I have seen the games and how they are played.