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12-20-2014, 10:28 PM   #1
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What will the cameras and the camera industry look like in 3-5 years

I wonder what kind of cameras will exist in 3-5 years ? Will there be DSLR's, ASP-C, Full frame, 4/3rds , advanced compacts, etc. ?

What shape will Canon, Nikon, Pentax, Fuji, Sony, Olympus and Panasonic be in ? Will some not exist, will others be shadows of their former selves ? Will some be bigger, with increased market share ?

Which camera companies will be dead and gone ?

Which ones will be bought up by stronger companies and what will be their fate ?

Which ones will be doing better....or ok...or be gonzo ?

Your opinion and rationale.

12-21-2014, 03:32 AM   #2
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I don't think there will be a major difference in 3-5 years.
DSLR might loose some market share to MILC,

It's probably going to take 10-15 years before we see big changes in the industry.
12-21-2014, 03:52 AM   #3
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3-5 years is a too short time but this is my longterm analysis:

I would say that the biggest question mark is Samsung, they are a powerhouse but still the camera section lags behind the rest of the company. They got the tools to become a powerhouse also in photography but the question is if they can put them together? If they do, watch out.

Olympus, while having a strong following, is suffering badly from earlier financial scandals and right now gives up tech to Sony as a compensation for being bailed out of misery by them. It's a bad situation to be in, just look at what happened to Pentax under Hoya, who picked apart the company and took the tech they wanted.

Canikon better watch their back as the duopoly might be broken within a foreseeable future, though they will be here for years and years to come.

Panasonic is pretty unexciting to analyze as a camera maker in my eyes. They are good, stay afloat and most likely continue to keep their market.

Fuji does a lot of things at the same time and it's a bit risky but can give them advantages in case of big technological leaps. X-trans sensors are good but needs to be quite a lot better to really prove to be an advantage in the market. Right now they are riding high on the retro design trend in the market but they need something more to the table as trends can die out as quick as they came.

Sony is a huge company that is in a big reconstruction but things seems to be looking brighter lately. They seem to become a bit more goal focused and it also shows in the camera section. With the shake reduction taken from Olympus they can now provide fullframe with top line specs, to a low price in a tiny package with the little extra advantage that other fullframe makers don't have at all. If they manage to solve the AF disadvantage they might be the first to catch up with Canikon.
12-21-2014, 04:33 AM - 1 Like   #4
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I think the biggest mistake people make when they try to predict the future of the camera industry is that they focus on camera bodies. The reality is that for a lot of the industry -- particularly the upper end -- the camera market is based on glass. If the glass is there and is good quality, the sales will probably follow (if the price is reasonable). This is the biggest current problem with the full frame NEX cameras. It may be rectified, although Sony has seemed to cut corners when it comes to lens design and this could end up hurting them in the long run.

I think there will be a divide. Entry level SLRs will likely be replaced with cameras having EVFs, even if they keep the same registration distance. SLRs will continue to be present in the upper tiers of cameras, where many photographers are more traditional and not interested in changing style of shooting.

12-21-2014, 04:48 AM   #5
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The next cataclysmic change will happen as a result of the next global economic recession, whenever that occurs. Capital destruction always causes violent changes to markets, products and companies.
12-21-2014, 04:55 AM   #6
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Electronics is the future and whichever company does it best will likely prevail. With their expertise in Smart Phone technology I would think that Samsung has the edge though I could see them partnering with another company for the glass. Apple could make a big splash for the same reason. It is absolutely archaic that one must fiddle with dials and buttons on a camera body rather than use an app on a smart phone or tablet. It's only a matter of time until someone marries the smartphone technology with an advanced digital camera body, be it mirrorless or SLR. It's short sighted beyond words that location tracking, wireless communication and comprehensive remote control and management are not part of an advanced camera design and I believe that it will happen, sooner rather than later.
12-21-2014, 05:10 AM   #7
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This is a difficult one. It all depents on the change in social media and the growing importants of smartphones. The total market for camera's is down to 40 million units this year. I think this will go down to 25 million over the coming years. Probably divided in three equal sections in unit sales: dslr, mirrorless and p&s.

Dslr:
This will be the high market. With a large share for full frame, maybe up to 40 %! This market is smaller then today, But maybe not in sales, since these are midrange to highend only. I think that a camera like K-3 would be considderd as entrylevel. Polycarbonate is more popular. Nikon, Canon and Ricoh are the only brands available.

Mirrorless:
This is growing to be the most popular sections, bigger then dslr, in units......not in $. Everything available from cheap entrylevel to full frame. As long as they connect to internet they have a future. I think they are growing into smartphone devices. 4G will be onboard as is wifi. Many brands But Sony isn't one of them since they pullen out of that market. Samsung will dominante this market! Ricoh is a niche in this. I don't think m4/3th is still around in 2020!

P&S:
Only travelzooms, high end, action camera's and snorkel camera's are in the market. At all prices. Many brands, But gopro went bankrupted in 2016! All these camera's are niche. So Many players can be active. Mostly Chinese brands. Ricoh, Canon, Nikon and Samsung are still active in this market and they own the high end section.

12-21-2014, 05:22 AM   #8
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GoPro bankrupt within two years? Now that's a bold statement!
Judging by how big of a market share GoPro got when it comes to extreme sports (from racing to skiing) I bet they would get traded at least twice before going under and there's no way two years is enough time for that.
12-21-2014, 05:34 AM   #9
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QuoteOriginally posted by VisualDarkness Quote
GoPro bankrupt within two years?
MarketWatch GoPro Financials.

GoPro Debt/Equity Ratio is 0.87 (Debt / Total Capital = .62). Technically, GoPro is nearly insolvent NOW. But that doesn't really matter so long as they continue to grow 45% per year - lenders lent on equity projections three years out. The Current Ratios are what trouble me - and the 236 P/E Ratio.

If interest rates rise dramatically, though, warm up the toaster oven. If there is global consumer recession - uh oh. If consumer tastes shift from Xtreme Sports (today's users age into middle class family time) - Hello GoRicohPro.
12-21-2014, 05:46 AM   #10
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
MarketWatch GoPro Financials.

GoPro Debt/Equity Ratio is 0.87 (Debt / Total Capital = .62). Technically, GoPro is nearly insolvent NOW. But that doesn't really matter so long as they continue to grow 45% per year - lenders lent on equity projections three years out. The Current Ratios are what trouble me - and the 236 P/E Ratio.

If interest rates rise dramatically, though, warm up the toaster oven. If there is global consumer recession - uh oh. If consumer tastes shift from Xtreme Sports (today's users age into middle class family time) - Hello GoRicohPro.
Still, they are pretty dominant in many broadcasting and video sections when it comes to extreme sports and I bet someone who wants a foot in that market buys them.
12-21-2014, 08:59 AM   #11
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A breakthrough in sensor design leading to new super compact lenses, body design will follow the
Marketing.
If I guessed right do I get one for free ?
12-21-2014, 09:45 AM - 1 Like   #12
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Panasonic & Samsung will wise up and realize there's no future in dedicated cameras and concentrate on
smart devices instead.

Ricoh will continue to make quirky products no one knows about and no one wants, but somehow manage
a marginal existence thanks to the support of their fanatical followers.

Canon & Nikon will get panicky at their continued loss of marketshare and will merge to form NiCan. They'll
sign Beyonce, Justin Bieber & David Beckman for celebrity endorsements and then file for chapter 11 seven
months later.

Fuji, sensing a missed opportunity with the lingering nostalgia for film emulsion, will release a digital camera
that can also accept 35mm cartridges, then go bankrupt when only four people purchase the camera.

Sony will get bored with dedicated cameras when they realize the REAL future lies in the QRIO. "Who wants
to take pictures when your manservant can take them for you" will be their marketing slogan. Rioters will
destroy the factory claiming the little metal men were just way too creepy.

Nokia will stun the world of photography and vault to the top among all remaining camera producers when
they release a DSLR with an embedded smart device.

Or not....
12-21-2014, 09:53 AM   #13
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QuoteOriginally posted by VisualDarkness Quote
Still, they are pretty dominant in many broadcasting and video sections
For the 'filler' on sports broadcasts do the networks and cable sports channels really use GoPro or is there a Panasonic or Sony professional equivalent? My impression has been the genius of GoPro was to make a tiny camera that emulates the pro stuff at a consumer price point - and market it via YouTube.

Their challenge is to take the camera beyond 'consumer fad' stage. Their risk is their consumer segment just moves on.

- but once it's been done, what next? (And this is just one of dozens on the web).
12-21-2014, 10:07 AM   #14
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3-5 years is not a long time in camera years, but it's a lot of time in electronics years. i would say, since the dawn of the digital camera age, the biggest pushes i've seen are: the megapixel race, high iso race, and i think now, the large sensor small body race (sony's A7, panasonic's LX100, etc etc).

i've seen people talk about how they've sold their full frame gear for fuji x100, or people switching to m4/3rds, or sony full frames. i hope to see the demise of large body dslrs for the consumer level. unfortunately, pentax suffers from the long flange focal distance... personally, i'd like to see a weather sealed k-s1 with better ergnomics. (but really, to each their own)

m4/3 has always been intriguing because it's around the sensor size cut off where i think you see low noise at high iso and can have nice bokeh. (i know, i know, smaller sensor enthusiast can disagree with me.) what i'd like to see is an absolutely stunning, collapsible lens. i'd sell and switch in a heartbeat.

i think the pro level will have larger bodies still. unfortunately, full frame, large body, large lens canikon = pro. and people on this forum can attest to that right?

QuoteOriginally posted by VisualDarkness Quote
I would say that the biggest question mark is Samsung, they are a powerhouse but still the camera section lags behind the rest of the company. They got the tools to become a powerhouse also in photography but the question is if they can put them together? If they do, watch out.
i like that VisualDarkness brought up Samsung, because they are very new to the game. and some of their features are awesome, like touchscreen, tap to focus, wifi, etc (i don't know if they are the first to bring these, but the first i experienced these features were on a samsung). but as a company, they are always missing a little something to push them over the edge to global domination. they might benefit from a partnership, but who else is left from the traditional camera world? another partnership with pentax perhaps?

QuoteOriginally posted by dakight Quote
It's only a matter of time until someone marries the smartphone technology with an advanced digital camera body, be it mirrorless or SLR. It's short sighted beyond words that location tracking, wireless communication and comprehensive remote control and management are not part of an advanced camera design and I believe that it will happen, sooner rather than later.
tethering to a smartphone is an interesting take on it. sony has had the qx10/qx100 for some time and olympus has a prototype module that uses m4/3rds. maybe in 10 years, we'll see a lytro on a smartphone... that'd be interesting. i'd rather the best features of a camera get smaller and more convenient, than the camera get more features. but... i'm being hypocritical because wifi remote and viewfinder is pretty cool.

QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
MarketWatch GoPro Financials.

GoPro Debt/Equity Ratio is 0.87 (Debt / Total Capital = .62). Technically, GoPro is nearly insolvent NOW. But that doesn't really matter so long as they continue to grow 45% per year - lenders lent on equity projections three years out. The Current Ratios are what trouble me - and the 236 P/E Ratio.

If interest rates rise dramatically, though, warm up the toaster oven. If there is global consumer recession - uh oh. If consumer tastes shift from Xtreme Sports (today's users age into middle class family time) - Hello GoRicohPro.
remember the flip video camera? arguably the company that brought back home video recording to the masses in a easy way. it was bought by cisco (i think) and just fizzled. i could see that happening to GoPro. a company that created a market for itself, then disappears... ???
12-21-2014, 10:14 AM   #15
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QuoteOriginally posted by VisualDarkness Quote
GoPro bankrupt within two years? Now that's a bold statement!
Judging by how big of a market share GoPro got when it comes to extreme sports (from racing to skiing) I bet they would get traded at least twice before going under and there's no way two years is enough time for that.
It's a bubble and bubble's burst........
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