Originally posted by Steve.Ledger In other words the Fun Factor is missing because there's just too much work involved for the average consumer to own a higher end camera..
This has, realistically speaking, always been true. DSLR cameras of yesterday were complicated too--the "basic" tenants of exposure, film ASA speed, and f stops were still around then. You were more limited in what you could do on the spot, of course, but it made getting good photos much more challenging as you had to anticipate the problems much better than you do now.
I used to be big in home theater. The CE makers saw their profits drop as rapidly as they hit the stratosphere. It's the same thing with the camera industry: people ran out and bought these things and had no need to buy a new one when a slight upgrade was released. He concludes that market saturation isn't a culprit, but I think he is incorrect in that the market just continues to shrink. What was an appealing cool, shiny toy just lots its charm for people. Maybe they realized they didn't need an SLR. Maybe they realized it was too expensive. Maybe they saw friends buy them and not end up with the Pulitzer-prize quality prints they expected they'd get. Who knows.
I would argue that this is simply regression to the mean. People weren't out buying film SLRs buy the truckload like they did with digital SLRs and if they did, most of them probably went unused for years after a few times. But when digital SLRs came out, a bunch of people not originally in the market rushed out and bought one. Then they realized it was mostly an impulse and moved on. They won't buy another one. It's not that the smartphone killed their interest so much as they never had real interest in the first place. They just appeared to.
So what happened to the camera makers? They got excited by record profits and, like virtually every company and government on the planet, assumed that revenue was just going to continue to grow. Then it didn't. Now they're trying to release a new product every year when having longer product cycles is probably the answer.