What the history of camera sales looks like with Smartphones included

**monochrome** · 04-10-2015, 01:13 PM

Interesting Reading from PetaPixel.

If you want to see a graphic illustration of the effect of smartphones on the industry the two charts are - alarming.

jamarley · 04-10-2015, 01:35 PM

Interesting but not entirely unexpected. If only camera manufacturers had foreseen this and moved toward melding the technologies. Oh wait, Samsung does. Not well, but they at least are making an attempt.

**jatrax** · 04-10-2015, 01:50 PM

Certainly eye opening but I don't know about alarming.

Hard to tell from the graph exactly but it looks as if D-SLR sales have held fairly steady. Yes, down from peak years but remember this is production numbers not sold numbers, and both Nikon and Canon have been dumping inventory from those over production years. And if you look back a few years actually D-SLR is doing just fine as a trend. Also mirrorless is holding steady. Not going to argue one year over another that is too short to really show a trend.

Obviously compact camera market had collapsed, but not died. And I would suggest it will likely steady out at those numbers or decline slightly but the plunge is finished. Lots of people used to buy cheap compact cameras for occasional use and that need is easily filled with a smartphone or tablet camera. Even better because of the connectivity. But some people do like a pocket camera and they will still continue to buy. Not everyone has a smartphone, or even a cell phone.

And yes, smartphone production has soared but that is not really telling us anything. How, many people have a smartphone and do not use the camera? How many people have a smartphone because they need a phone and use the camera on it occasionally but prefer their D-SLR? How many people never bought a camera in their lives but now have a smartphone that just happens to also be a camera? How many people just got introduced to photography because their phone came with a camera?

It looks to me that the 'enthusiast' or 'interested amateur' markets are doing just fine. If you are into photography as a hobby or are serious about your images of family then you are still buying a real camera. If all you are interested in is family or travel snapshots, post them on Facebook and never actually manage the images on the computer then a smartphone is the way to go.

And the real question is: Over the next 10 years how many smartphone camera users can camera companies convert to a real camera? That market looks to be huge. Dwarfing anything that has happened before. If 5% of those smartphone users can be converted it exceeds the number of real cameras produced last year. That is an opportunity waiting to be met.

**monochrome** · 04-10-2015, 01:54 PM

Originally posted by jatrax

And the real question is: Over the next 10 years how many smartphone camera users can camera companies convert to a real camera? That market looks to be huge. Dwarfing anything that has happened before. If 5% of those smartphone users can be converted it exceeds the number of real cameras produced last year. That is an opportunity waiting to be met.

I've said many times that Canon and Nikon expanded facilities and production to capture the conversion from analog to digital ILC's, and now they're carrying unused capacity. Ricoh might just be lucky Pentax missed the entire party.

rrstuff · 04-10-2015, 01:59 PM - **1 Like**

Somebody, tell those guys about logarithmic plotting, the last graph is horrendous.

biz-engineer · 04-10-2015, 02:14 PM

Not alarming; quantities of dslr sold was double of film cameras, since the population did not double, that simply means that 1 DSLR out of 2 was sold to a wrong person. Sorry, most of what I see on flickr is garbage, a lot of photos that I would not even dare pressing the shutter. It's not about quantity of photos without no value, it's about taking the time to take beautiful meaningful photos.

**jatrax** · 04-10-2015, 02:26 PM

Originally posted by monochrome

I've said many times that Canon and Nikon expanded facilities and production to capture the conversion from analog to digital ILC's, and now they're carrying unused capacity. Ricoh might just be lucky Pentax missed the entire party.

Agree. Ricoh is in a good spot. They are in a position to see the trends and predict things a lot better going forward without the overhead of excess capacity. They can be profitable on far lower unit sales than the other guys.

The smart play here is finding the smartphone snapper that is dissatisfied with smartphone results. That market makes the "legacy k-mount user base" market seem kinda unimportant doesn't it?

I have personally helped two young friends (my son's friends actually) buy D-SLRs in the last year. Both have a cell phone glued to one ear and text constantly. Both were using cell phone cameras, a lot. And both were interested enough in photography to want to step up. The cell phone still goes everywhere but it is in addition to the camera not in place of it. And that's how I see this playing out. The smartphone will largely replace the compact camera for casual users, but it will be seen as a smartphone camera, not a real camera for many who will also continue to buy a d-slr.

Maybe I'm on an optimistic plane today but I think the camera market looks amazingly bright.

wildman · 04-10-2015, 02:36 PM

Originally posted by biz-engineer

it's about taking the time to take beautiful meaningful photos.

Couldn't agree more -
- Now all I have to do is figure out what is a "beautiful" and "meaningful" photo.

severalsnakes · 04-10-2015, 06:14 PM - **1 Like**

I like pictures, so I'm OK with people making them any way that's available to them. Growing up, all my childhood memories were captured with disposable 35mm cameras. My family had an occasional 35mm point-and-shoot, but the convenience of the disposable was overwhelming. Those photographs are NOT technically excellent, but the memories are precious. It's the same deal with camera phones. No, the images are not as "nice" as those from my K-mount cameras. But I'd rather somebody take the shot and capture the moment (and yeah, share it immediately on Facebook so I can enjoy it, too!), than to not have the image at all.

Camera-people like us, photo-snobs, we enjoy the technique of creating the image, sometimes too much. For me, sometimes it's good to remember that enjoying the memory is most important. I'm down with camera phones, because it makes capturing the memory super simple, so anyone can do it, and we can get right to enjoying it. :-)

**clackers** · 04-10-2015, 07:37 PM

Originally posted by severalsnakes

Camera-people like us, photo-snobs, we enjoy the technique of creating the image, sometimes too much. For me, sometimes it's good to remember that enjoying the memory is most important.

Is it Either/Or, SeveralSnakes?

Photo-snobs have phones too! :-)

severalsnakes · 04-10-2015, 08:22 PM

Originally posted by clackers

Is it Either/Or, SeveralSnakes?

Photo-snobs have phones too! :-)

I know! And I feel guilty whenever I grab a quick snap with my smartphone, thinking of all the money and effort I've put into the (d)SLRs! I shouldn't feel that way, but there ya go.

Rupert · 04-10-2015, 08:26 PM

Originally posted by biz-engineer

Sorry, most of what I see on flickr is garbage, a lot of photos that I would not even dare pressing the shutter. It's not about quantity of photos without no value, it's about taking the time to take beautiful meaningful photos.

Maybe that is the viewpoint of an engineer that looks for exacting results and uses demanding requirements to get them. I love gorgeous photos as much as the next guy/girl.......but you are overlooking one of the oldest adages on record...."beauty is in the eye of the beholder."

I've seen this often, once when I had a particularly lovely shot with gorgeous bokeh....and an old Granny commented that it was beautiful...but too bad I didn't get the background in focus!

Yes, there is junk, I shoot a hell of a lot of it myself. I call them memories, reminders of the past, ticklers of the mind, and some of them are the most cherished photos I own. If you only shoot for perfection, you may be a great photographer, but you will miss out on life and the joy of a shot someone will cherish, imperfections and all!

Regards!

Pick it apart...it's easy to do..but I can assure you someone cherishes this photo. It was a quick and unplanned snap...could easily have been deleted. If you knew the rest of the story you would know why it is now cherished.

**monochrome** · 04-10-2015, 09:12 PM

Last night I attended a formal reception for major donors to a non-profit org at which the featured guest was a well-regarded, elderly stage actor. He is to perform solo on stage at a charity event tomorrow evening. Small as it is, my Q7 / 01 just doesn't fit in a dinner jacket.

But an iPhone6 does.

04-10-2015, 01:13 PM	#1
monochrome Loyal Site Supporter Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Working From Home Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 26,276	What the history of camera sales looks like with Smartphones included Interesting Reading from PetaPixel. If you want to see a graphic illustration of the effect of smartphones on the industry the two charts are - alarming.

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04-10-2015, 01:35 PM	#2
jamarley Site Supporter Join Date: Dec 2010 Location: New Jersey Photos: Gallery Posts: 409	Interesting but not entirely unexpected. If only camera manufacturers had foreseen this and moved toward melding the technologies. Oh wait, Samsung does. Not well, but they at least are making an attempt.

04-10-2015, 01:50 PM	#3
jatrax Site Supporter Join Date: May 2010 Location: Washington Cascades Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 12,991	Certainly eye opening but I don't know about alarming. Hard to tell from the graph exactly but it looks as if D-SLR sales have held fairly steady. Yes, down from peak years but remember this is production numbers not sold numbers, and both Nikon and Canon have been dumping inventory from those over production years. And if you look back a few years actually D-SLR is doing just fine as a trend. Also mirrorless is holding steady. Not going to argue one year over another that is too short to really show a trend. Obviously compact camera market had collapsed, but not died. And I would suggest it will likely steady out at those numbers or decline slightly but the plunge is finished. Lots of people used to buy cheap compact cameras for occasional use and that need is easily filled with a smartphone or tablet camera. Even better because of the connectivity. But some people do like a pocket camera and they will still continue to buy. Not everyone has a smartphone, or even a cell phone. And yes, smartphone production has soared but that is not really telling us anything. How, many people have a smartphone and do not use the camera? How many people have a smartphone because they need a phone and use the camera on it occasionally but prefer their D-SLR? How many people never bought a camera in their lives but now have a smartphone that just happens to also be a camera? How many people just got introduced to photography because their phone came with a camera? It looks to me that the 'enthusiast' or 'interested amateur' markets are doing just fine. If you are into photography as a hobby or are serious about your images of family then you are still buying a real camera. If all you are interested in is family or travel snapshots, post them on Facebook and never actually manage the images on the computer then a smartphone is the way to go. And the real question is: Over the next 10 years how many smartphone camera users can camera companies convert to a real camera? That market looks to be huge. Dwarfing anything that has happened before. If 5% of those smartphone users can be converted it exceeds the number of real cameras produced last year. That is an opportunity waiting to be met.

04-10-2015, 01:54 PM	#4
monochrome Loyal Site Supporter Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Working From Home Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 26,276 Original Poster	Originally posted by jatrax And the real question is: Over the next 10 years how many smartphone camera users can camera companies convert to a real camera? That market looks to be huge. Dwarfing anything that has happened before. If 5% of those smartphone users can be converted it exceeds the number of real cameras produced last year. That is an opportunity waiting to be met. I've said many times that Canon and Nikon expanded facilities and production to capture the conversion from analog to digital ILC's, and now they're carrying unused capacity. Ricoh might just be lucky Pentax missed the entire party.

04-10-2015, 01:59 PM - 1 Like	#5
rrstuff Veteran Member Join Date: Sep 2013 Location: Pasadena, CA Photos: Albums Posts: 1,126	Somebody, tell those guys about logarithmic plotting, the last graph is horrendous.

04-10-2015, 02:14 PM	#6
biz-engineer Pentaxian Join Date: Feb 2015 Photos: Gallery Posts: 12,231	Not alarming; quantities of dslr sold was double of film cameras, since the population did not double, that simply means that 1 DSLR out of 2 was sold to a wrong person. Sorry, most of what I see on flickr is garbage, a lot of photos that I would not even dare pressing the shutter. It's not about quantity of photos without no value, it's about taking the time to take beautiful meaningful photos.

04-10-2015, 02:26 PM	#7
jatrax Site Supporter Join Date: May 2010 Location: Washington Cascades Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 12,991	Originally posted by monochrome I've said many times that Canon and Nikon expanded facilities and production to capture the conversion from analog to digital ILC's, and now they're carrying unused capacity. Ricoh might just be lucky Pentax missed the entire party. Agree. Ricoh is in a good spot. They are in a position to see the trends and predict things a lot better going forward without the overhead of excess capacity. They can be profitable on far lower unit sales than the other guys. The smart play here is finding the smartphone snapper that is dissatisfied with smartphone results. That market makes the "legacy k-mount user base" market seem kinda unimportant doesn't it? I have personally helped two young friends (my son's friends actually) buy D-SLRs in the last year. Both have a cell phone glued to one ear and text constantly. Both were using cell phone cameras, a lot. And both were interested enough in photography to want to step up. The cell phone still goes everywhere but it is in addition to the camera not in place of it. And that's how I see this playing out. The smartphone will largely replace the compact camera for casual users, but it will be seen as a smartphone camera, not a real camera for many who will also continue to buy a d-slr. Maybe I'm on an optimistic plane today but I think the camera market looks amazingly bright.

04-10-2015, 02:36 PM	#8
wildman Veteran Member Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: Flyover America Posts: 4,469	Originally posted by biz-engineer it's about taking the time to take beautiful meaningful photos. Couldn't agree more - - Now all I have to do is figure out what is a "beautiful" and "meaningful" photo.

04-10-2015, 06:14 PM - 1 Like	#9
severalsnakes Veteran Member Join Date: Jan 2013 Location: Kansas City, KS Photos: Gallery Posts: 1,612	I like pictures, so I'm OK with people making them any way that's available to them. Growing up, all my childhood memories were captured with disposable 35mm cameras. My family had an occasional 35mm point-and-shoot, but the convenience of the disposable was overwhelming. Those photographs are NOT technically excellent, but the memories are precious. It's the same deal with camera phones. No, the images are not as "nice" as those from my K-mount cameras. But I'd rather somebody take the shot and capture the moment (and yeah, share it immediately on Facebook so I can enjoy it, too!), than to not have the image at all. Camera-people like us, photo-snobs, we enjoy the technique of creating the image, sometimes too much. For me, sometimes it's good to remember that enjoying the memory is most important. I'm down with camera phones, because it makes capturing the memory super simple, so anyone can do it, and we can get right to enjoying it. :-)

04-10-2015, 07:37 PM	#10
clackers Otis Memorial Pentaxian Join Date: Jul 2013 Location: Melbourne Photos: Albums Posts: 16,397	Originally posted by severalsnakes Camera-people like us, photo-snobs, we enjoy the technique of creating the image, sometimes too much. For me, sometimes it's good to remember that enjoying the memory is most important. Is it Either/Or, SeveralSnakes? Photo-snobs have phones too! :-)

04-10-2015, 08:22 PM	#11
severalsnakes Veteran Member Join Date: Jan 2013 Location: Kansas City, KS Photos: Gallery Posts: 1,612	Originally posted by clackers Is it Either/Or, SeveralSnakes? Photo-snobs have phones too! :-) I know! And I feel guilty whenever I grab a quick snap with my smartphone, thinking of all the money and effort I've put into the (d)SLRs! I shouldn't feel that way, but there ya go.

04-10-2015, 08:26 PM	#12
Rupert Veteran Member Join Date: Sep 2006 Location: Texas Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 25,123	Originally posted by biz-engineer Sorry, most of what I see on flickr is garbage, a lot of photos that I would not even dare pressing the shutter. It's not about quantity of photos without no value, it's about taking the time to take beautiful meaningful photos. Maybe that is the viewpoint of an engineer that looks for exacting results and uses demanding requirements to get them. I love gorgeous photos as much as the next guy/girl.......but you are overlooking one of the oldest adages on record...."beauty is in the eye of the beholder." I've seen this often, once when I had a particularly lovely shot with gorgeous bokeh....and an old Granny commented that it was beautiful...but too bad I didn't get the background in focus! Yes, there is junk, I shoot a hell of a lot of it myself. I call them memories, reminders of the past, ticklers of the mind, and some of them are the most cherished photos I own. If you only shoot for perfection, you may be a great photographer, but you will miss out on life and the joy of a shot someone will cherish, imperfections and all! Regards! Pick it apart...it's easy to do..but I can assure you someone cherishes this photo. It was a quick and unplanned snap...could easily have been deleted. If you knew the rest of the story you would know why it is now cherished.

04-10-2015, 09:12 PM	#13
monochrome Loyal Site Supporter Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Working From Home Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 26,276 Original Poster	Last night I attended a formal reception for major donors to a non-profit org at which the featured guest was a well-regarded, elderly stage actor. He is to perform solo on stage at a charity event tomorrow evening. Small as it is, my Q7 / 01 just doesn't fit in a dinner jacket. But an iPhone6 does.