[biz-engineer]

Try them out, buy the camera that best suits YOUR needs. But the most important thing is to stop thinking about gear and use your time and energy to be creative and take photographs.Oh and take a few minutes to watch this:

It's like to quit smoking, every smoker knows that smoking is not good for health and bank account, but how many succeed to quit the smoking addiction.

[ramseybuckeye]

I think the winner has to clearly be the one you like the best. Sony and Fuji seem like the leaders to me, they seem to be coming out with the most lenses, but very expensive for the most part. Olympus and Panasonic have their niche too. Canon and Nikon are jumping into the FF mirrorless game. Of course I think you are looking atr risk. Sony, Olympus, and Fuji have all but abandoned their DSLR mounts, is that a sign they are fully committed or a sign they also abandoned old customers? I don't know, but I truthfully don't see any of them leaving the market. I'm somewhat surprised that none of these companies have gobbled up each other. As far as I know that only happened to Pentax, twice. But I'm sure I'll be corrected.

[david94903]

Try them out, buy the camera that best suits YOUR needs. But the most important thing is to stop thinking about gear and use your time and energy to be creative and take photographs.

Oh and take a few minutes to watch this:

How PHOTOGRAPHY can make you UNHAPPY - YouTube

Excellent post! Hits the nail on the head.


Interestingly, a few of my Canon and Nikon friends, who are exploring the mirrorless market, all seem to be going to Sony, even though "their" brands have mirrorless options. When I ask why, the typical reply is that Sony has been in the mirrorless market for awhile, and their products are known.

[RAART]

I will place my bet not on the bodies but on the quality of lenses each manufacturer can produce... Good optics are in my opinion more essential then sensors and brand names, though the flash and AF performance is also a big factor there.
Maybe Canon as I really like their lens line though I always had a Nikon or Pentax DSLR's. Nowadays Sigma is good as well as Tamron, also the new Pentax lenses are exceptional. Leica is kind of legendary as well as Zeiss. Though!

[agp1337]

Ergonomics aside, what can you tell about the comparison of KP and Fuji image quality? Is KP really behind?

Thanks. I actually prefer the look of the Fuji, but that is a personal matter. I'm not a 'pixel peeper', but I have just had a look and there is no discernible difference. Both are as sharp as you would need for 'normal' use and A3 prints. I also like the aperture ring on the lens and the ease of use of the camera, including the dials described in my original comment, and the quick menu with touch screen and joystick. If Fuji bring out a mirrorless which is also water-resistant, I will be upgrading. For now, I'll use the K1 for rugged work.

The KP and lenses are going to be sold!

[beholder3]

I was hoping to canvass as wide a possible opinion base on which brand/model looks like it's winning the race to become THE mirrorless leader of the next 5/10 years. Investing in a new/unknown system is a big investment and I'd like to make sure I get it right for the medium term. If you could also explain why then that'd be really great

Other than crystal ball.


1. You are not investing. You buy throw-away entertainment electronics. That was already the case with DSLR and is more so the case with DSLM. Sony for example treats cameras like they did with Walkmans. Every month a new model and the old one is forgotten and drops in price.
If money is important, only buy used cameras and best 1 generation behind. Never spend more than $1000-1500 on a FF camera then. Don buy more than 2-3 lenses in 2 years.
With all the mount changes getting en vogue it is a false assumption that lenses are safe.


2. The most likely scenario (based on the last 10 years) is that the only safe bet is the single big player: Canon. Very, very unlikely they fold or withdraw. They already are close to leading not only the DSLR but also the DSLM market. The small competition from Olympus, Sony, Nikon, Fuji, Panasonic all have some major risk involved that they do not survive in the still shrinking market now overflowing with options.

[pinholecam]

Too hard to tell at this point as Canon and Nikon has only just entered the fray.


My few cents :

Sony - the current leader with the most lenses and market share. Lasting 5yrs from now should not be a problem imo, due to the momentum it has built up.
The problem with Sony is that they are already known to go where the money is (and they are not a camera only manufacturer).
So mounts may change, camera form factor may change, or they may even decide rather fast to not do cameras anymore.
Sony has a history of all that.

Fuji - They are either on the "up" with the new cameras or they have money to burn to avoid being Kodak. They do seem committed enough in their camera system to last 5yrs.
10yrs is a bit too far to tell.
The main challenge with them will be where they want their product lines to go. ie. APSC? 645? FF?

Panny - Just moved into FF, so I think they are looking out to expand.
They have enough momentum in m4/3 to last 5yrs for sure, but whether it goes longer will depend which format makes the right amount of money.

Oly - Probably will stick with m4/3.
Will they be like the Pentax of m4/3, stuck without enough cash and size to venture faster/further?
5yrs, again, no problem.
They did have financial problems just a few years back so dicey in that aspect...

Canon - Has legacy and the momentum of their DSLR market share on its side.
Problem is more of how committed they are to the new MILC system.
Will the form factor and mount change for something 'better' in the near future?
No likely, but the dust has surely not settled yet at this point.
Its mainly a camera company, so commitment to cameras should be more certain vs Sony.

Nikon - Its mainly a camera company, so commitment to cameras should be more certain vs Sony.
Almost the same considerations as Canon.
The plus side is that they have gone all in on FF as a format and the camera already has IBIS.
The downside is compatibility to 3rd party and adapted lenses, which is questionable.


On a 5yr outlook, all the makers should be fine.
No one knows with a 10yr time scale.


The downside of any of the MILC lenses are that if the camera maker no longer makes the camera, they will less likely be usable on a camera from another brand as the electronics and firmware are not compatible.
No manual focus, no manual aperture.

[Sandy Hancock]

Full frame mirrorless is a rapidly evolving medium. Then you can add medium format.

It's a total crap shoot. Anyone's suggestions here are pure speculation.

Personally, I'll stick with the ecosystem I know and trust.
OVF.
DSLR.
Pentax.

[Digitalis]

I don't think there will be a single leader, much like Canon and Nikon for DSLRs of the past.

^This^

Same crap, different manufacturer.

[photoptimist]

Personally, I'd avoid crystal ball analysis entirely because the world is now changing too fast to predict the which camera makers will be around in 5 or 10 years.

Any of the makers could fall by the wayside in the shifting sands of consumer fads, a corporate restructuring, an accounting scandal, a bad economic downturn, or at the hands of a new competitor that's not even on today's list of options. Even the strongest can die or become marginalized has beens. In 2006, who would have bet that Nokia or Blackberry would lose so badly to a computer maker (Apple) or a search engine company (Google/Android)?

Moreover, there's no guarantee that the winning maker won't obsolete any of their systems. You can't really buy "Sony" or "Canon," only specific Sony or Canon systems that even more likely to disappear over the years than the maker. And as even the lenses become more electronic and software-based, the chance that today's bodies and lenses become incompatible with tomorrow's bodies and lenses grows. The optics of a lens may be forever, but the firmware can be obsoleted pretty quickly.

For the most part, the core technologies of digital cameras have matured to the point that any decent 2018 model camera will remain performance-competitive for a long time. The only exception might be high-end video where high-end 4k and new 8k is still developing.

Instead of worrying about investing for the future's winners, buy the system that has everything you need right now.

[Fenwoodian]

In addition to my trusty K1 and KP system and various lenses I have just bought a Fuji xe-3, simply because I was fed up with the bulk and weight of the Pentax. I'm delighted with it, and have the 18-55 and 55-200 lenses. The 18-55 is not the standard cheap 'kit' lens, but is high quality. No regrets at all. However, this morning it was pouring with rain, so I used the KP for an essential shot, as the Fuji isn't as rugged, or waterproof.

It's horses for courses, choose the right one for the job. The electronic viewfinder on the Fuji is fantastic, especially when shooting video, as I do like holding the camera to my eye, makes it more steady. It is lovely not having so much weight, and really easy to use, aperture is set on the lens, shutter speeds on one dial, exposure compensation on another, as in the old days!

I'll probably sell the KP system and use the heavy K1 where top quality, and ruggedness in all weathers, are needed. Hate to say it, but if I was starting afresh I'd go Fuji over KP.

I'm with you.

First, I keep an APS-C system for: my stills when I need light weight, for jpg files when I don't care to spend much time in post, and for video. I've owned multiple systems for years now (Canon, Nikon, Fuji, Pentax K5IIs/K3/K3II/K70). For example, I've owned 6 or 8 digital Fuji digital cameras since the S1 Pro came out 20 years ago (I still own a dedicated IR Fuji S3 Pro, and a X-E1). Recently I purchased a mirrorless Fuji X-T2 because with the new X-T3 just coming out, X-T2 used prices are very attractive (paid just $675 for mine). The X-T2 is a real eye opener. Very light weight. Great ergonomics. Best out of camera jpg's of any camera I've used. Features/menus/customization that are mindblowing! Excellent in-camera 4K video (I have no interest in ever doing 8K). Further, when you buy a Fuji camera, you know that they will be coming out with regular firmware updates/upgrades (and excellent new lenses) in the future. Full frame lenses (Pentax, Nikkor, Zeiss) are easily adapted for use on Fuji APS-C bodies and they look great. I've been on again, off again with Fuji for my APS-C camera system for 20 years, and I just keep coming back to them because each iteration keeps getting better and better. I feel very comfortable saying that based on my wonderful 20-year experience with Fuji APS-C digital cameras that the next 5 - 10 years in the future look bright for Fuji APS-C.

Second, I keep a full frame system for when I need the ultimate in RAW image files for my stills. With full frame, I don't care about the lighter weight of a full frame mirrorless (for light weight I use my APS-C camera), and I don't care about mirrorless' EVF because I always focus using a Zacuto viewfinder on the cameras LCD screen. So, mirrorless offers no advantage to me over DSLR for my full frame needs. I am still a big believer in the Pentax K-1 digital camera. I've owned Canon and Nikon full frame cameras, and prefer the erogonomics/features/WR/quality/IBIS/Pixel-Shift/cost of the Pentax K-1 camera. I only shoot manual focus lenses, so the K-1's auto focus "averageness" is OK with me. 36MP is the perfect full frame sensor size for me - 42MP, 50MP or 100MP don't interest me at all. I regularly print large, and 36MP is more than enough for my prints. So, even if Pentax stopped making K-1s and ceased to develop/offer new full frame cameras, I believe that I'll still be happy with my K-1 in 5 to 10 years in the future. So, if my Pentax K-1 dies in 5 years, I'll either get it fixed, or buy a good used copy of another K-1.

[jumbleview]

If Fuji bring out a mirrorless which is also water-resistant, I will be upgrading.

But there are some Fuji bodies, lenses which already WR : Weather Resistant Fuji Lenses and Cameras | JamesStuber.com. I myself looked for Fuji as well. I even tried one in the store. Do not remember the model but indeed viewfinder was excellent. Still, after some consideration, I think about buying the KP (I have K5II now). Too many APC-S lenses I own and I got personally attached to most of them.

[Wheatfield]

They are all losers.
However, were I a betting man, I would buy into Fuji.
In fact, that is what I did. It’s too bad that the viewfinders are unusable for any length of time.
If you are buying into full frame, I expect Nikon is the safe bet.

[agp1337]

Interesting. Today, in 'Amateur Photographer' magazine, there is an article about a professional photographer (Ola Alsheikh) and her portrayal of modern Sudan. Like me, she uses Pentax, but also now uses Fuji, as less intrusive in public. I now carry the Fuji everywhere, but for serious work i will use the Pentax K1.

it was strange getting a 12mm Samyang manual lens yesterday. I was perturbed that there was no linkage for the automatic diaphragm, it's just smooth metal with no working parts. The shop didn't know why either. In fact there genuinely isn't any linkage. We were all puzzled as to why, when stopping down, the viewfinder was always bright. Worked it out later - as it's an electronic viewfinder, it automatically makes itself brighter as you stop down.

Not entirely Pentax, sorry.