Originally posted by lesmore49 This from a post I first put in another thread at the PF:
My advice is to use information from a highly respected source. In my case I use the Johns Hopkins map, which illustrates the areas on the globe where this disease happens, the number of reported cases, the number of deaths from those same countries and the number of people who have recovered from this disease in those countries.
It is interesting to note the number of people who have recovered. It is quite substantial and a significant number, that doesn't seem to be reported as much in some media.
Now, a further issue that must be taken into account regarding the number of cases reported, etc. Any information that is available is only as accurate as the information submitted by different countries health departments. If some countries are under reporting, can't keep up with testing, etc...this has to be a factor that is considered in the overall numbers.
I don't pay much attention to media reports , due to my concern about accuracy and what appears to be sensationalism of some reporting. I do have a concern about news reporting, particularly reporters talking to reporters and not expert medical people, and lapsing into opinion and drifting away from fact and also 'tailoring' their delivery to what will keep viewers/readers ...on that channel...reading that paper, etc...or politicizing it. Oh yes...I understand that this can happen.
The Johns Hopkins map shows that Italy has 1440 recoveries and 1260 deaths. Hardly an optimistic number...
China, however, at this point has reported* 3180 deaths and 64K recoveries, which is a much more "tame" 4.7% mortality. Still very high, but likely to go a bit down (recoveries lag behind: it takes longer for a survivor to be discharged from hospital than it takes for a typical victim to die...) as the epidemic gets further under control.
*This is a very important consideration: as you say, if the central government of a given country obscures the numbers then we are more or less blind. Italy, for example, has stopped widespread testing due to the sheer number of cases: they just treat everyone as if they were infected. Of course, this means that their numbers are going to look
terrible, because most "reported" cases now will be those that need a ventilator to survive. Meanwhile, South Korea started blanket testing very early, so they are reporting a huge number of mild cases - which helps bring down the apparent mortality rate.
There won't be an accurate tally until this is all over, if at all. Best we can do, IMHO, is to assume everyone to be at-risk and follow the required health guidelines.