[D1N0]

Yesterday I was in a building with a lot of escalators. Try avoiding to touch the moving handrails.

[aslyfox]

yes it is a serious disease

yes it can have serious consequences

yes it is something that will not affect everyone

yes there are rumors out there about it that are not true

and there are at least two threads here at the forums discussing it

First coronavirus death in U.S. and new cases detected as testing expands

A man in his 50s with an underlying health condition became the first person in the United States to die of coronavirus infection. President Trump announced new travel restrictions Saturday, and health officials scrambled to increase testing nationwide even as they tried to tamp down public fears.

Along with the fatality in Washington state, health officials in the Seattle area confirmed two additional cases of the covid-19 disease and a possible outbreak at a long-term nursing facility — raising alarm because the elderly and sick are among those most vulnerable to the virus. Officials in California’s Santa Clara County announced another case Saturday, and Illinois announced another case Saturday evening.

The new cases bring the number of people apparently infected by community spread of the disease to nine. They have no travel history to regions hit by the virus or encounters with people known to have the disease. . . .

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/first-us-coronavirus-death-prompts-new...470_story.html

[Bassat]

Perhaps a bit of perspective is in order. Influenza, yep, regular old flu, kills 300,000 to 600,000 people EVERY YEAR. Nobody EVER has a cow about that. Corona virus is sneaking up on 3,000, and last time I checked, hadn't killed anyone younger than 10 anywhere, ever. Corona virus is a MEDIA problem, not the heath problem the media would have you believe.

[K2 to K50]

I hear IKEA Jansjö no only clears yellow casts but also kills viruses. Don't hold me responsible when there is a run on Ikea though.

Make sure you disinfect the outside surface othe Jansjo before touching. Oh, and disinfect the outside surface of the container you use to disinfect.........oh dear!!!

Perhaps a bit of perspective is in order. Influenza, yep, regular old flu, kills 300,000 to 600,000 people EVERY YEAR. Nobody EVER has a cow about that. Corona virus is sneaking up on 3,000, and last time I checked, hadn't killed anyone younger than 10 anywhere, ever. Corona virus is a MEDIA problem, not the heath problem the media would have you believe.

Early days yet for the corona virus - and there are vaccines for most of the known flu viruses - I had my shot a few months ago.

[photoptimist]

Perhaps a bit of perspective is in order. Influenza, yep, regular old flu, kills 300,000 to 600,000 people EVERY YEAR. Nobody EVER has a cow about that. Corona virus is sneaking up on 3,000, and last time I checked, hadn't killed anyone younger than 10 anywhere, ever. Corona virus is a MEDIA problem, not the heath problem the media would have you believe.

COVID-19 seems to be about about as contagious as the flu but it's 10-40 times more deadly than the influenza. So if it's allowed to spread like the flu spreads, then it will kill 3 million to 24 million.

Total deaths could be much higher, though. What scares epidemiologists is that 14% of those infected end up in the hospital and 5% end up in intensive care. There are not enough hospital beds and intensive care units in the country to handle that load. Thus, if it spreads like flu and overwhelms the healthcare system, the death toll would push the high-end estimates.

Anything that can be done to slow the spread and limit the spread of the disease can make it much more manageable. Moreover, some of the hygiene and social habits that can help reduce the spread of COVID-19 would also reduce the spread of influenza and other communicable diseases.

[Serkevan]

COVID-19 seems to be about about as contagious as the flu but it's 10-40 times more deadly than the influenza. So if it's allowed to spread like the flu spreads, then it will kill 3 million to 24 million.

Total deaths could be much higher, though. What scares epidemiologists is that 14% of those infected end up in the hospital and 5% end up in intensive care. There are not enough hospital beds and intensive care units in the country to handle that load. Thus, if it spreads like flu and overwhelms the healthcare system, the death toll would push the high-end estimates.

Anything that can be done to slow the spread and limit the spread of the disease can make it much more manageable. Moreover, some of the hygiene and social habits that can help reduce the spread of COVID-19 would also reduce the spread of influenza and other communicable diseases.

Potential for contagion might be substantially higher than for the flu - surface survival of COVID-19 is much longer, and incubation time keeps increasing. The percentage of people going into the hospital is more than ten times that of the flu, so we're looking at a pretty grim prospect there.

---------- Post added 03-01-20 at 07:18 AM ----------

Perhaps a bit of perspective is in order. Influenza, yep, regular old flu, kills 300,000 to 600,000 people EVERY YEAR. Nobody EVER has a cow about that. Corona virus is sneaking up on 3,000, and last time I checked, hadn't killed anyone younger than 10 anywhere, ever. Corona virus is a MEDIA problem, not the heath problem the media would have you believe.

Do you remember the H5N1 influenza scare? AKA Avian flu, 60% kill rate. Or H1N1, which was substantially more contagious than the average: though it turned out to be less problematic than expected, countries in Europe stocked A LOT of vaccine shots for that strain, plus had to reinforce hospitals with extra personnel because of the number of cases.

So yes, healthcare systems *do* give a cow -several herds, in fact- about the flu. Actually, in Spain they have started rolling out the vaccine to people of all ages, precisely because of the strain it puts on the system.

Panic is dumb and helps no one. Overconfidence, as well, is a slow and insidious killer.

[aslyfox]

" might be "

we need more trustworthy data which will come with time

[ I am not accusing anyone here at the forums with knowingly spreading false rumors ]

and I hope that the worse fears don't prove to be true

[vonBaloney]

I'd don't know where 10-40x comes from -- the numbers so far indicate 4x (2% compared to 0.05%), but most recent indications are that it will likely settle at about a 1% fatality rate, so that would be twice as deadly. Risk is significantly higher for old or compromised people (as usual) -- it does not seem to be much of risk at all to children so far. This type of virus that is less deadly and has longer incubation period is actually what will allow it to spread so successfully compared to the avian flu where you got sick and died very quickly -- that actually makes it much easier to contain.

[Serkevan]

I'd don't know where 10-40x comes from -- the numbers so far indicate 4x (2% compared to 0.05%), but most recent indications are that it will likely settle at about a 1% fatality rate, so that would be twice as deadly. Risk is significantly higher for old or compromised people (as usual) -- it does not seem to be much of risk at all to children so far. This type of virus that is less deadly and has longer incubation period is actually what will allow it to spread so successfully compared to the avian flu where you got sick and died very quickly -- that actually makes it much easier to contain.

2% is 40 times 0.05%
Even if it settles down to 1% (probable once asymptomatic cases are counted) it would be 20 times higher than the flu. 0.05%x10=0.5%
Hospitalization rate is about 5-10 times higher than with the flu and hospitals everywhere already struggle to provide beds and proper care during flu season.

[photoptimist]

" might be "

we need more trustworthy data which will come with time

Yes, but that "more trustworthy data" can only come at the cost of people's lives or the cost of inconvenience. Each country's willingness to contain or not contain the contagion becomes a natural but unpleasant experiment to see how many people this can kill.

So far, it seems that people who are young and healthy and that only have young and healthy loved ones can ignore the virus -- they'll all get a cold and think nothing of it. Those who are older, have pre-existing conditions, or who have loved who are older or sicker face a grimmer prospect if others let the illness spread throughout the population.

With epidemics, there's no pause button that gives scientists time to get trustworthy data, develop treatments, or make a mass-produced vaccine. Covid-19 is immune to tweets, political rhetoric, or hiding of information.

[vonBaloney]

2% is 40 times 0.05%
Even if it settles down to 1% (probable once asymptomatic cases are counted) it would be 20 times higher than the flu. 0.05%x10=0.5%
Hospitalization rate is about 5-10 times higher than with the flu and hospitals everywhere already struggle to provide beds and proper care during flu season.

Ok, typo with my percentages and decimals. Looking up the numbers again now I see different ones listed in different places so I guess I won't trust any of them presently, and we'll just see how it goes as trends emerge...

[biz-engineer]

COVID-19 seems to be about about as contagious as the flu but it's 10-40 times more deadly than the influenza. So if it's allowed to spread like the flu spreads, then it will kill 3 million to 24 million.

Numbers are available for the US territory. Based on a 2% morbidity rate, COVID-19 would be 200 to 400 times more deadly than flu.

---------- Post added 01-03-20 at 17:47 ----------

it does not seem to be much of risk at all to children so far.

It seem to be more deadly for people over 50, basically it would be the average Pentaxian profile.

[vonBaloney]

Numbers are available for the US territory. Based on a 2% morbidity rate, COVID-19 would be 200 to 400 times more deadly than flu.

Now you are mixing up numbers. It would be 20x at most, and a rate closer to 1% is more likely, so maybe 10x-12x for USA assuming people can get treatment (at the same level they would if they had the flu), etc...

[biz-engineer]

2% is 40 times 0.05%

If I take the total number of death from flu in the US, it's about 0.01%, that's how I found my 200 x figure.

[Steve Beswick]

Thank You biz-engineer, I disinfected my PK to Fuji X lens adapter with 91% Isopropyl when I recieved it a few days ago. Those of you that don't feel the need to take any precautions concerning this matter, Do Not, those that do, Do...

So you ordered this thing, had it shipped, brought it in your house, opened the packaging, handled it, and then you soaked it in alcohol? Sounds almost pointless by then, but okay.