[biz-engineer]

Tell that to the fifty thousand people locked in northern Italy...

They took it seriously after they found cases. But before they found cases, nobody cared about it, although everybody knew the existence of this virus by having China more than two months ahead of everywhere else.
The other extreme is apparently (according to media...) Russia who have closed their Chinese border, quarantined suspects individuals (foreign travelers, from China, Iran), and re-routed international flights to dedicated terminal, and deported 88 foreigners who wouldn't respect quarantine rules, even before they had any cases of infection identified, so far chain of command and disciplinary measures seems to have paid off. It's likely that Russia will be the only area not affected by the virus, simply by enforcing strict discipline.

[Serkevan]

They took it seriously after they found cases. But before they found cases, nobody cared about it, although everybody knew the existence of this virus by having China more than two months ahead of everywhere else.
The other extreme is apparently (according to media...) Russia who have closed their Chinese border, quarantined suspects individuals (foreign travelers, from China, Iran), and re-routed international flights to dedicated terminal, and deported 88 foreigners who wouldn't respect quarantine rules, even before they had any cases of infection identified, so far chain of command and disciplinary measures seems to have paid off. It's likely that Russia will be the only area not affected by the virus, simply by enforcing strict discipline.

Yeah, it was more tongue-in-cheek than serious. The Russian response might be the best option in that case, but not all countries (in particular, those that heavily depend on tourism) can afford the harsh restrictions.

The fact that China lied through their teeth regarding the expansion of the epidemic also doesn't help.

[biz-engineer]

The fact that China lied through their teeth regarding the expansion of the epidemic also doesn't help.

Human psycho, you are more likely to buy a car insurance after you had an accident than before, although it's already too late.

[monochrome]

If I take the total number of death from flu in the US, it's about 0.01%, that's how I found my 200 x figure.

If you are reducing the flu mortality rate for the quality of US healthcare you must also reduce COVID-9 mortality rate by the same amount, so the US should be between 10-20x higher mortality than the usual flu.

It is NOT 200x. You are spreading FUD, as usual.

200,000 are hospitalized with the flu annually here, so 2,000,000 potential over the next several months for 30 days each (and we’re at the end of the usual flu season). Potentially 360,000 deaths from related complications.

We have 1,000,000 hospital beds in the US.

[Serkevan]

If you are reducing the flu mortality rate for the quality of US healthcare you must also reduce COVID-9 mortality rate by the same amount, so the US should be between 10-20x higher mortality than the usual flu.

It is NOT 200x. You are spreading FUD, as usual.

200,000 are hospitalized with the flu annually here, so 2,000,000 potential over the next several months for 30 days each (and we’re at the end of the usual flu season). Potentially 360,000 deaths from related complications.

We have 1,000,000 hospital beds in the US.

You do realize that the numbers you are quoting are cause for concern, right?
You do realize that 2 million potential cases for a single disease are enough to wreck utter havoc on hospitals, right? COVID-19 is showing more contagion potential than the flu so the models are going to be very weird - in particular with 20 days of incubation period. Look at Italy, it went from "nothing happened" to hundreds of cases because of a handful of people who were walking around.


Regarding available beds, people cannot be magically teleported to a hospital with empty beds. One outbreak in an underserved area can be a very serious issue. The moment a hospital gets overwhelmed mortality rate increases because quality of care cannot keep up. Nevermind the fact that in the US self-quarantine will not work for reasons that will not be discussed here.

While I agree with you that biz's posts are too gloomy and there is no apocalypse coming, reckless optimism is almost as bad.

[Merv-O]

"The smell of Napalm is the smell of victory...." I agree with Steve Brothers-in-law, but as a human living in the 5th largest Metro area in the Country, avoiding crowds is impossible....let's hope that our technology in developing viral vaccines kicks in quickly...otherwise, let's hope that it is contained....In 1918, millions died form Spanish (swine) flu....After all, we are just highly evolved primates and prone to zoo viruses....
In the meantime, keep shooting and hope that after 10's of thousands of aggregate shots with your dirty camera bodies, you have built up a decent immune system...

[monochrome]

You do realize that the numbers you are quoting are cause for concern, right?
You do realize that 2 million potential cases for a single disease are enough to wreck utter havoc on hospitals, right? COVID-19 is showing more contagion potential than the flu so the models are going to be very weird - in particular with 20 days of incubation period. Look at Italy, it went from "nothing happened" to hundreds of cases because of a handful of people who were walking around.


Regarding available beds, people cannot be magically teleported to a hospital with empty beds. One outbreak in an underserved area can be a very serious issue. The moment a hospital gets overwhelmed mortality rate increases because quality of care cannot keep up. Nevermind the fact that in the US self-quarantine will not work for reasons that will not be discussed here.

While I agree with you that biz's posts are too gloomy and there is no apocalypse coming, reckless optimism is almost as bad.

Stop the outrage. We can handle it. Life will be disrupted and the potential deaths are horrible but we’re not talking about the Black Plague.

[Serkevan]

Stop the outrage. We can handle it. Life will be disrupted and the potential deaths are horrible but we’re not talking about the Black Plague.

I'm the one saying that there is no need to panic. Obviously it won't be like the Black Plague, that was literally worse than both world wars put together

But it *is* serious. It is so far more serious than Avian flu, SARS/MERS or, well, the flu.

[BarryE]

Stop the outrage. We can handle it. Life will be disrupted and the potential deaths are horrible but we’re not talking about the Black Plague.

Just feeling a little picky. Black Death or bubonic plague - two different diseases. I didn't realise that till recently. Before the time we licked our camera equipment, so probably an academic distinction :-)

[vonBaloney]

Black Death or bubonic plague - two different diseases. I didn't realise that till recently.

The consensus is still that it was the bubonic plague, but some don't agree.

[brewmaster15]

I guess one could also add this fact to the discussion. Because the current vaccine for the flu this year has been less effective by most accounts .. the hospitals have been maxed out the last several months dealing with our yearly garden variety flu cases.I've had the unfortunate experience of taking an elderly parent to a major hospital here on multiple occassions for respiratory issues over the last 3 months... Honestly it doesn't matter if the Corona virus is only as dangerous as the flu or even less so. The timing is terrible. If a hospital can not deal with the normal influx of people needing treatment for the flu, any thing that happens with any kind of respiratory virus is likely to really cause problems.

Not to mention the similarities of the two pathogens symptoms make it hard to actually determine if a case is one or the other without testing.

Al

[Serkevan]

I guess one could also add this fact to the discussion. Because the current vaccine for the flu this year has been less effective by most accounts .. the hospitals have been maxed out the last several months dealing with our yearly garden variety flu cases.I've had the unfortunate experience of taking an elderly parent to a major hospital here on multiple occassions for respiratory issues over the last 3 months... Honestly it doesn't matter if the Corona virus is only as dangerous as the flu or even less so. The timing is terrible. If a hospital can not deal with the normal influx of people needing treatment for the flu, any thing that happens with any kind of respiratory virus is likely to really cause problems.

Not to mention the similarities of the two pathogens symptoms make it hard to actually determine if a case is one or the other without testing.

Al

Yep. That's the main problem; as long as we have hospital capacity, most countries with good healthcare can deal with the coronavirus without too much trouble - unfortunately people will die and it will be worse than the regular flu season, but not catastrophic. However, if the system cannot cope, then uh oh...

[RobA_Oz]

The consensus is still that it was the bubonic plague, but some don't agree.

It’s still around (Maps and Statistics | Plague | CDC). Of course, it’s not the Middle Ages, either.

The similarity is the speed with which vulnerable people are struck down. Taking this seriously requires people to be alert to the signs and take reasonable precautions.

Like many other aspects of life, there’s no guarantee, but risk management is sensible, as with those other things.

Still, the prospect of visiting Venice without the crowds is a tempting thought...

[stevebrot]

Based on the general tone of this thread, it is apparent that specific concern about contaminated photography goods and/or the impact on release dates for Ricoh product (rolls eyes) are secondary to general concerns about widespread epidemic and societal disruption. While I definitely believe that much of the popular concern is unwarranted at present, I will admit to not being fond of the idea of catching this disease, me being medically compromised and all. I also believe that those downplaying the risks and severity are doing so out of opinion, not domain expertise or personal experience.

The strongest analogy I might think of at present is that of native Americans when exposed to novel viruses against which they had no hereditary resistance. The matter is serious enough for action, but appropriate action remains elusive.


Steve

[PDL]

As far as I have been watching, the deaths from this version of a Corona virus is really caused by some strain of bacterial pneumonia. So there we have the dilemma, a virus weakening the person to the point where a bacteria can come in and finish them off. So the target age range is the young and the old. Plus you have to add into this people with compromised immune systems due to other non-age and age related causes.

On orders from my physician I have been given a series of vaccinations for approximately 43 strains of pneumonia causing bacteria. While I would not consider myself out of the woods, I believe that my resistance to pneumonia is higher than average. Just to be clear, I do have a chronic condition that has weakened my immune system. Am I afraid of this strain? Not all that much, I have never liked being around people who cough in my face, spit on hand rails, don't wash their hands or wipe their noses.