Originally posted by rogerstg My way of looking at it is that (adjusted for survey bias) the failure rate for the worst models (K-30/50) is only ~6% based on a 2016 survey
I don't think so. I have closely watched offers on eBay and other 2.nd hand platforms. I think with the K-30/50 it was higher than 6%
In the German Pentaxianforum the survey failure rate for the K-30 was actually 65%! 40% for the K-50.
I don't think those figures are acurate either, too high, but 6% is way too low. The survey showed that mainly long-time members of the forum voted.
Originally posted by rogerstg Pentax didn't even know that is was a problem until late 2015, so probably not addressed until early 2016 at the earliest. Most of the production for the K-30/50s was before the problem was identified and definitely before the survey was taken.
They must have know way before because designing/developing the new "diaphragm control unit" and then having it built will take at least 6 month of not longer!
It was in December 2015 when the first changes were applied to the K-50. I know a person who purchased the first new "diaphragm control unit" April/May 2016.
Then it was already in regular production and put in into K-30/50/500 under the 2 year warranty in the EU and Switzerland! It was later on when they realized it was NOT the complete "diaphragm control unit" but only the solenoid which was faulty, from then on when they repaired it, in most cases it was solely exchange of the solenoid itself!
Originally posted by rogerstg For the K-S2, the surplus production is likely to be the latest production, after the problem was addressed. For me, it turned out to be correct since mine was produced 3/2017. Additionally, we have some anecdotal evidence that non use leads to failure of defective solenoids. To my mind, sitting on a shelf for 2+ years is a pretty good test of that.
Possibly a good test, yes. I never stopped people buying the K-S1 or K-S2 but recommended it. But I told them that there was a tiny chance this could happen...
and that then ... in any case... I could and would help.... of course.