[FantasticMrFox]

Do you mean 10 000 units of 645Z per year?

I think by 'entire planned production run' he means the grand total, i.e. all bodies produced until the successor comes out and it is discontinued.

[WPRESTO]

7000 or only one, so long as one gets into my hands.

[monochrome]

I think by 'entire planned production run' he means the grand total, i.e. all bodies produced until the successor comes out and it is discontinued.

Precisely. These are at their core capital allocation decisions - financial decisions - based on a plan to produce x units over y period = Z profit. Production scheduling allocates limited factory and people resources over time, and may include producing more units in the early months and quarters of the plan than later. Holding some inventory early, and the associated cost of carry can be part of the production plan.

So 7000 units a month might refer to the early months of the production run, with a plan to reduce monthly production - or even halt production and run off inventory - later. Those details are rarely known outside the company.

And of course, no plan survives first contact with the enemy.

[virusn3t]

The biggest U.S. retailers ordering only 10-20 for the initial batch seems to me like a laughable underestimation of demand.

I say regularly stock, i mean, out of the pre-orden numbers (of course if they have 100 preorders, they dont gonna make theirs of 10 cameras), as Pentax isnt the fastest brand to sell, how many cameras like the K1 BH or Adorama usually have in the shelf? 10-20?

[FantasticMrFox]

And of course, no plan survives first contact with the enemy.

Someone has been reading Moltke

[Not a Number]

Looks like a lot more than 10 is going on someone's shelf here:
https://www.pentaxforums.com/forums/16-pentax-news-rumors/314224-pentax-k-1-o...ml#post3620045

[monochrome]

Someone has been reading Moltke

and:

"Strategy is a system of expedients. It is more than science, it is the translation of science into practical life, the development of an original leading thought in accordance with the ever-changing circumstances." *


* I had to look up the actual passage. Thankfully it was just one link deep in Wikipedia. I feel this also applies in general to our running conversations about Ricoh.

[Adam]

If that is the case, then over a 1,000 preorders just at BH for K1 would not be unrealistic. I called BH today to see what my chances are of getting in on the first shipment. I was told I might get one on the second or third shipment. They said they have more pre-orders than their first shipment. My guess is that the pre-orders are in the high 100s if not more.

Spoke with B&H today and it looks like they don't have the K-1 yet. Hopefully it still manages to reach the warehouse by the end of the day...if not, then tomorrow!

Regarding total pre-orders, they number a few hundred. Nice to see that a significant proportion of future US K-1 owners is right here on PF

[btnapa]

Spoke with B&H today and it looks like they don't have the K-1 yet. Hopefully it still manages to reach the warehouse by the end of the day...if not, then tomorrow!

Regarding total pre-orders, they number a few hundred. Nice to see that a significant proportion of future US K-1 owners is right here on PF

Thanks for the info Adam. I placed my pre-order this morning. Hopefully it will get to me in the next few weeks. It is totally my fault for not getting on the list immediately. I was debating between the 645Z and the K1 that is why I did not place a pre-order when the ordering became available.

[interested_observer]

These sorts of figures are rarely published, but at first sight that looks like a rather low number, at less than 1% of global DSLR production. Then again, if Pentax only has a 5% or so share of that market, then they're being pretty ambitious with the K-1

I was referring to the numbers for other brands/models in general.

To give one example: I remember taking to B&H when the D800 was originally launched. They told me they had accepted over 50,000 pre-orders...

Nowhere near that high for Pentax, but I'd expect several hundred since our giveaway alone has registered over 100 pre-orders.

If we assume a similar adoption rate of a Pentax full frame as was experienced by Nikon for the D800. Using a 5% market figure for Pentax and say 40% for Nikon. Then applying similar proportions, B&H should have perhaps had about 6,250 pre-orders for the K1. That would have represented the vast majority of the K1's first month of production.

(50,000 / 40) = x / 5

There are a lot of assumptions there, but if the K1 is as large as the D800 was for Nikon, Pentax has hit a home run - especially with their low volume, high profit business model.

[Adam]

If we assume a similar adoption rate of a Pentax full frame as was experienced by Nikon for the D800. Using a 5% market figure for Pentax and say 40% for Nikon. Then applying similar proportions, B&H should have perhaps had about 6,250 pre-orders for the K1. That would have represented the vast majority of the K1's first month of production.

See post #23 for the actual number of pre-orders (300 range).

[Franc]

my dealer alone had 20 pre-orders and got 3 delivered last week. The quota for Holland was evenly spread out over all dealers with pre-orders. This week he gets a few more.

[interested_observer]

See post #23 for the actual number of pre-orders (300 range).

Yes, I read that. What I left unsaid, is that based on that, despite Pentax's excellent rollout, excitement and pre-order volume - their overall market penetration visa vie Cankon appears to running lower that what a 5% market share would indicate. Over the last couple of years I have seen / read Pentax's market pegged at anywhere from 1% (hopefully too low) to 5% (probably too high). Where they actually are within that band, appears to be on the low side of the mid range. Thus their low volume, high margin business model will work for them well extremely well - especially when coupled with new D-FA lens sales.. The rather surprising large initial monthly build is very good news. I hope that this is the watershed product/event that turns their market share around.

[clackers]

Thus their low volume, high margin business model will work for them well extremely well - especially when coupled with new D-FA lens sales

Agreed.


If they try to copy Canikon - high volume, low margin, stacks displayed in B&M shelves, high advertising spends - death awaits in a declining market.

[Ginnipe]

Agreed.


If they try to copy Canikon - high volume, low margin, stacks displayed in B&M shelves, high advertising spends - death awaits in a declining market.

Honestly I feel like Pentax does need to up its advertising though. I agree that a high volume low margin strategy wouldn't work, but that doesn't mean they can't make sure the market at least knows they exist.

The way I see it, Pentax should market itself like Subaru does. Subaru can do everything Toyota and Honda can do (aka Canon and Nikon) but they're marketed as being more rugged, all weather, and practical machines. So is Pentax. Their cameras are more capable than Canikon in poor weather, and are able to provide results that are on par or slightly better than them as well. They just don't have the same market share. But advertise the cameras as rugged and as a lifestyle type of thing such as Subaru, and I can see the advertising paying itself off easily.