There are a couple of points in this
newsgroup post about MTBF that are worth paying attention to if you are truly interested in determining the expected life span of your camera.
"important characteristic of MTBF --it is an ensemble characteristic which applies to populations (i.e."lots") of things; not a sample characteristic which applies to one specific thing" In other words the MTBF or MTTF rating for the K-1 shutter or any other component doesn't mean
your camera's shutter will last that long.
"For many systems of interest today the required failure rates are so low that the MTBF substantially exceeds the lifetime" In other words, your camera's shutter is unlikely to die before some other vital part of your camera does.
Nobody can tell you when your camera is likely to die, regardless of how long it is warrantied for or what its reliability specifications are. A guess that you make, based on your experience with other cameras from the same manufacturer, adjusted for your knowledge of improvements made to your camera that the other cameras didn't have, is statistically just as valid as what the camera manufacturer publishes, but only for your camera. It's the strange part of Bayesian analysis. Also, please remember that the greater the likelihood of failure you assign to your camera, the greater the likelihood it will actually fail.
I spent some time in owner relations for a major automobile manufacturer and five years as a warranty administrator for car dealerships; if you don't go looking for problems, whatever you purchased will work better and you will be happier.