Originally posted by monochrome Not for the 645z and maybe not for the K-1.
True - Perhaps not!
But even for the 645Z there were discounts within a year... with the high demand. Small discounts but nonetheless discounts.. and after 2 years it is a bit more considerable.
I see it more with 645Z retaining its value longer on one end and on other other end of the spectrum the APS-C not. FF imo will come in somewhere right of middle with Pentax keeping the pricing more inline than APS-C but not as conservative with the pricing as the Z. Not in the middle, closer to Z but not *at* Z trends. I would be gobsmacked if the K-1 is still 1800 a year from now. My brain can't comprehend them not wavering any on the pricing.
And because both of their track record and more so the FF market seems much larger than the MF one is.. the prices are down to where the serious enthusiast as well as money to burn crowd buy in (such as moneybags uncle buck gets a 'big' camera to take snapshots of his nieces wedding). MF is too niche and still too expensive for most. So I don't think they'll be able to keep prices at a premium as much with FF as with MF.
Last gen Nikons are cheap already and sensor wise in line with the K-1 today. Canon (minus DR issues) have fully trusted and cheap digital FF bodies out there saturating the market. Sony's latest are still pretty cheap (look at A7 prices today!). And all 3 of these brands are close to revealing their next gen which will push old stock prices even lower.
If Pentax can retain pricing for 12+ months then it shows the product is a hit and/or the product is still inline with the rest of the market (in specs and price). But I just don't see Canikony sitting on their laurels and letting Pentax slowly cut in so easily.. esp when they don't have a MF system and it seems Pentax is quick to keep the door closed on them.