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04-14-2016, 07:58 PM - 1 Like   #1
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Rogers Law of New Product Information

Being as we are nearly to the realization of the hopes and dreams of many Pentaxians - the release and delivery of the long-awaited full-frame K1 -

I find the musings of Roger on Lensrentals.com, especially the history of photography, to be very enjoyable and informative reading. I just came across this tonight, and thought it was quite hilarious, if light hearted.

https://www.lensrentals.com/blog/2013/01/rogers-law-of-new-product-introduction/

Had anyone else seen it yet?

"We are Here"

BTW - I've been wondering what the next model of Pentax DSLR will be named? K (-)1?

04-14-2016, 08:17 PM   #2
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So real
04-15-2016, 05:04 AM   #3
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I chuckled
04-16-2016, 11:35 AM   #4
mee
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WOW

I was just about to post a thought very similar to this.. except my thought was it could be more like Option A at pre-release, keeping hype through release, then plummeting 6 months later after we realize even though its a decent tool, it isn't the silver bullet to taking poor photographs.

Ricoh/Pentax reps have stated recently that they will treat the FF system more closer to the MF and as such will not be dropping prices as the crop body does.. I still suspect that notion will change in 6 to 12 months after the bulk of bottled demand starts to wane.

04-16-2016, 11:50 AM   #5
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QuoteOriginally posted by mee Quote
WOW

I was just about to post a thought very similar to this.. except my thought was it could be more like Option A at pre-release, keeping hype through release, then plummeting 6 months later after we realize even though its a decent tool, it isn't the silver bullet to taking poor photographs.

Ricoh/Pentax reps have stated recently that they will treat the FF system more closer to the MF and as such will not be dropping prices as the crop body does.. I still suspect that notion will change in 6 to 12 months after the bulk of bottled demand starts to wane.
The price will drop but I think the time pattern will be closer to the 645z. I don't think they're going to flood the zone with bodies. Rather I think they'll keep a trickle of production running to meet actual demand after the initial inventory is sold.
04-16-2016, 01:39 PM   #6
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
The price will drop but I think the time pattern will be closer to the 645z. I don't think they're going to flood the zone with bodies. Rather I think they'll keep a trickle of production running to meet actual demand after the initial inventory is sold.
With the 645Z they claimed the demand caught them at surprise.. and they had to work hard to keep up. I doubt they'll be the same with the K-1

I noticed the price of the 645Z has lowered by 18% in 2 years for new and the going used price is 30% off retail price. The K-1 discounts won't be less than that for the given time for sure. And, I still suspect they will go down by that much in half the time as the market is moving faster in FFland than it is in MFland. They will have to continue to innovate and price accordingly to stay relevant if they want to grow marketshare.. that means newer models and thus blowing out old stock/having sales.. not quite on the level of crop but still elevated from MF.
04-16-2016, 01:45 PM   #7
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They're probably making the K-1 for a while, so it probably won't be that bad.
OTOH their initial monthly production level is a mere 7,000 units per month.
04-16-2016, 01:46 PM - 1 Like   #8
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QuoteOriginally posted by mee Quote
They will have to continue to innovate and price accordingly to stay relevant if they want to grow marketshare.. that means newer models and thus blowing out old stock/having sales.. not quite on the level of crop but still elevated from MF.
We really have to stop applying the CaNikon business model to Pentax. Why assume they necessarily want to grow market share at a rate that will require model churning and end-stock discounting? Why assume they need high volume at low prices to make profit? Why assume there will be a large stock of warehoused bodies to end-stock liquidate before a new model is released?

Their business assumptions are not the same as the big boys' business assumptions. Their embedded product costs aren't the same either.

04-16-2016, 01:54 PM   #9
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Well put. I don't doubt Ricoh Imaging wants to increase their market share, but how and at which rates?
Besides, buying market share doesn't quite work in a very competitive, declining market, right?
04-16-2016, 03:22 PM   #10
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
We really have to stop applying the CaNikon business model to Pentax. Why assume they necessarily want to grow market share at a rate that will require model churning and end-stock discounting?
Please look at the past 5 years.. that is precisely what they have done. And precisely why I've received so many fantastic upgrade deals.


QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
Why assume they need high volume at low prices to make profit?
I didn't. I assume high volume at high prices at the start and lower volume at lower prices a year down the road. Again, in line with their history.


QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
Why assume there will be a large stock of warehoused bodies to end-stock liquidate before a new model is released?
Because that's what they do. That is why there were 600 dollar K-3 bodies when they were going for 1100 twelve months before that. Also why there are 800 dollar K-5 II + 18-135WR kits on blowout the year before that.


QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
Their business assumptions are not the same as the big boys' business assumptions. Their embedded product costs aren't the same either.
No, but their history shows more than assumptions.. they have a track record of discounting much much MORE than Canikon..
04-16-2016, 06:17 PM   #11
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Not for the 645z and maybe not for the K-1.
04-16-2016, 07:07 PM   #12
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
Not for the 645z and maybe not for the K-1.
True - Perhaps not!

But even for the 645Z there were discounts within a year... with the high demand. Small discounts but nonetheless discounts.. and after 2 years it is a bit more considerable.

I see it more with 645Z retaining its value longer on one end and on other other end of the spectrum the APS-C not. FF imo will come in somewhere right of middle with Pentax keeping the pricing more inline than APS-C but not as conservative with the pricing as the Z. Not in the middle, closer to Z but not *at* Z trends. I would be gobsmacked if the K-1 is still 1800 a year from now. My brain can't comprehend them not wavering any on the pricing.

And because both of their track record and more so the FF market seems much larger than the MF one is.. the prices are down to where the serious enthusiast as well as money to burn crowd buy in (such as moneybags uncle buck gets a 'big' camera to take snapshots of his nieces wedding). MF is too niche and still too expensive for most. So I don't think they'll be able to keep prices at a premium as much with FF as with MF.

Last gen Nikons are cheap already and sensor wise in line with the K-1 today. Canon (minus DR issues) have fully trusted and cheap digital FF bodies out there saturating the market. Sony's latest are still pretty cheap (look at A7 prices today!). And all 3 of these brands are close to revealing their next gen which will push old stock prices even lower.

If Pentax can retain pricing for 12+ months then it shows the product is a hit and/or the product is still inline with the rest of the market (in specs and price). But I just don't see Canikony sitting on their laurels and letting Pentax slowly cut in so easily.. esp when they don't have a MF system and it seems Pentax is quick to keep the door closed on them.
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