[FantasticMrFox]

In case people are interested:

I came across this link from the official Ricoh Imaging Japan website in the German Pentaxian forum:

https://translate.google.de/translate?sl=ja&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=de&ie=UTF-...tml&edit-text=

States that the initial monthly production is 7,000 bodies. I can't make much of it, because I have no idea how many 6D/D750s/A7 IIs etc. Canon/Nikon/Sony are pushing out each month, but maybe some others have a better idea of what that means

[Adam]

These sorts of figures are rarely published, but at first sight that looks like a rather low number, at less than 1% of global DSLR production. Then again, if Pentax only has a 5% or so share of that market, then they're being pretty ambitious with the K-1

[FantasticMrFox]

These sorts of figures are rarely published, but at first sight that looks like a rather low number, at less than 1% of global DSLR production. Then again, if Pentax only has a 5% or so share of that market, then they're being pretty ambitious with the K-1

Exactly. If Pentax has 5%, and they are selling many more of their different APS-C models than of the K-1, simply due to the price difference, then it seems like quite a significant number.

But as they stated themselves they sold almost twice as many 645Zs as initially projected, so maybe this time they're aiming a bit higher. Plus the prize has surprised almost anyone, even in non-Pentax land, so there will be high demand.

[interested_observer]

I too was surprised by the number. I would have guessed more on the order of 2,000. This is probably the initial surge. Also, the estimate was that a full frame is only going to be needed/wanted/acquired by about 10% of photographers. I do think that Pentax was taken by surprise by the 645Z's demand - and given the pent up frustrations across the last 10 or 12 years, the the 7,000 don't go with in the first month, they will be gone within the first quarter.

[noelpolar]

Also, the estimate was that a full frame is only going to be needed/wanted/acquired by about 10% of photographers.

I wouldn't be surprised, if in time, Pentax users are about 2-3x the "all brand" average in their FF take up.

[rawr]

7000 /month = only about 230 /day coming out of the factory. Seems a bit low.

This would mean Ricoh could get by with just 6 workers assembling 40 cameras a day each at Cebu (assuming factory runs every day).

[virusn3t]

7000 /month = only about 230 /day coming out of the factory. Seems a bit low.

This would mean Ricoh could get by with just 6 workers assembling 40 cameras a day each at Cebu (assuming factory runs every day).

As far as i understand, Pentax is in the game of low volume/ high profit, so i dont think they gonna fight the production of Canon or Nikon.

I alwas wondered how many FF Ricoh will produce, my guesstimate was 5k, i mean, they will need to stock world wide to distribuitors and still manufacture other stuff like lenses or Aps cameras, 7000 cameras for the firts batch i think is realistic for the demand and no get overstocked

[monochrome]

As far as i understand, Pentax is in the game of low volume/ high profit, so i dont think they gonna fight the production of Canon or Nikon.

I alwas wondered how many FF Ricoh will produce, my guesstimate was 5k, i mean, they will need to stock world wide to distribuitors and still manufacture other stuff like lenses or Aps cameras, 7000 cameras for the firts batch i think is realistic for the demand and no get overstocked

5000 total? That's not very many.

This post suggests 7000 a month or at an 84,000 a year pace. I'd guess they have a number of units planned and a life-of-product that's pretty long, like three years. That early pace could slow down pretty quickly if sales are slower than expected. .

IIRC The entire planned production run of 645z was 10,000 units, then the Dealer pre-order alone was 20,000. Institutional sales were 2000!

That's why K-1 was pushed back a year.

[virusn3t]

5000 total? That's not very many.

This post suggests 7000 a month or at an 84,000 a year pace. I'd guess they have a number of units planned and a life-of-product that's pretty long, like three years. That early pace could slow down pretty quickly if sales are slower than expected. .

IIRC The entire planned production run of 645z was 10,000 units, then the Dealer pre-order alone was 20,000. Institutional sales were 2000!

That's why K-1 was pushed back a year.

Yeah.... i mean 5,000 cameras for first batch, i mean, how many cameras BH or Adorama (as biggest retailers) would stock normaly? 10 - 20?, if they needed more, im sure Ricoh warehouse can have many more... this camera (K1) as wished for beign the FF, how many can be preordered in each store; 70-100? that number plus Amazon and smaller retailers i would say less than 400 cameras for the entire US market (first batch), similar numbers for Canada, idk if theres any distribuitor on LatinAmerica (i know theres a store on Mexico who sell Pentax, but as a Premium brand, for the price of the K1, i barely could buy 2 K3 with the prices here, let alone they dont carry any lenses FA, D-FA, DA, *, only the basic) and the rest on EU and Asia, beign the most important markets France and Japan, thats why my guesstimate of 5000 cameras. After the initial sales slow down, a few thousands every month to maintain stock on they warehouse, and rotate the production for other products....

I think this info is very interesting (my mind start to make numbers when i read something like this), but without more data, we really never know the production, distribution or sales of Pentax (or any company).

[interested_observer]

If over the next 12 months, Pentax sells 40,000 units to actual end users, that would be absolutely fantastic for them - and stun the rest of the industry. Selling 20,000 645Zs is mind boggling - which would make 40,000 K1s a very reasonable expectation. There will only be several companies that would actually know - Ricoh and Sony (based on sensor sales) and some other key suppliers. If a 3 year run were to sell 50,000 to 75,000 units, Pentax would essentially re-establish itself. That would essentially be a K1 body for each registered Pentax Forum member.

Now, going out on a limb here, but on average each body I would think would generate at least 1 new D-FA lens sale (especially the new wide angle and long telephoto) within a year. Ricoh's management would be very plea$ed. This would then also push the third party lens manufacturers to start to consider producing K mount len$e$ again.

- just think what Hoya could have done if they were a little bit interested.

Only time will tell.....

[Kunzite]

These sorts of figures are rarely published

Ricoh Imaging is consistently publishing the initial production volumes, in the Japanese product announcements.

@rawr: I doubt one could assemble a K-1 in ~10 minutes, perhaps you should revise your estimates

Yeah.... i mean 5,000 cameras for first batch, i mean, how many cameras BH or Adorama (as biggest retailers) would stock normaly? 10 - 20?, if they needed more, im sure Ricoh warehouse can have many more...

No idea, but our dealer serving the minuscule Romanian market ordered about as many (and they're mostly sold). The biggest U.S. retailers ordering only 10-20 for the initial batch seems to me like a laughable underestimation of demand.

[jonlg]

Agreed - you can bet B+H and Adorama are ordering in the hundreds, if not thousands. SRS in the UK I believe stated they ordered 100 intially in batch 1 and nearly all were pre-sold. I think they were expecting a further delivery only a few days after that. The UK is a much smaller market than the US and yet there are at least another dozen retailers in the UK who will I expect be stocking the K1. My guess is that the K1 is going to be a runaway success for Pentax just like the 645Z was because lets face it every serious amateur on here will want one, every pro will too and those pro's using the 645Z may well want one as a backup body.

There's a huge pent up demand from Pentax enthusiasts worldwide for this camera so I think Pentax should do very well - especially when the reviews declare it a brilliant camera which I think they will!! Lets face it it's got a sensor that performs (apparently) better than a D810 plus many other advantages - in body shake redection, pixel shift, cheaper lenses, better weatherproofing, arguably better user interface plus its £1200 cheaper than an EOS 5DS and hundreds cheaper than a D810 - it's a hell of a bargain

Jonlg

[Adam]

No idea, but our dealer serving the minuscule Romanian market ordered about as many (and they're mostly sold). The biggest U.S. retailers ordering only 10-20 for the initial batch seems to me like a laughable underestimation of demand.

I was referring to the numbers for other brands/models in general.

To give one example: I remember taking to B&H when the D800 was originally launched. They told me they had accepted over 50,000 pre-orders...

Nowhere near that high for Pentax, but I'd expect several hundred since our giveaway alone has registered over 100 pre-orders.

[btnapa]

To give one example: I remember taking to B&H when the D800 was originally launched. They told me they had accepted over 50,000 pre-orders...

If that is the case, then over a 1,000 preorders just at BH for K1 would not be unrealistic. I called BH today to see what my chances are of getting in on the first shipment. I was told I might get one on the second or third shipment. They said they have more pre-orders than their first shipment. My guess is that the pre-orders are in the high 100s if not more.

[ogl]

5000 total? That's not very many.


IIRC The entire planned production run of 645z was 10,000 units, then the Dealer pre-order alone was 20,000. Institutional sales were 2000!
.

645D's production was 500 units per month. 6000 units per year. Do you mean 10 000 units of 645Z per year?