[Tatouzou]

K1only began shipping a year ago.
Entry level K70 and advanced mid range KP are more recent.

And looking at sales, the whole camera market is still shrinking.
ILC overall sales are decreasing, with mirrorless holding steady and DSLR sales slowly sinking.

IMO, the question is not when will we have new models, with this or that cool feature I might dream of (which doesnt mean I would be ready to buy a new body which will have it), but rather how long can Canon, Nikon and Pentax still rely on DSLR only?

I am happy with my K3 and my bunch of Pentax lenses.

The only important feature that sucks in Pentax cameras is AF-C tracking and AF-C ergonomy, which are both subpar.

AF-C performance do really matter in lots of scenes, much more than extra pixels or pixelshift.
Thus, unless my K3 breaks, I wont buy any other Pentax body until the AF-C experience is much much improved in the new models.

I am not longing after any future model; I just hope Ricoh imaging has a long term strategy and is careful enough to survive.

The only new model that might tease me would be a mirrorless body with a fully compatible K-moun: no adapter, no change to the flange distance, no new lenses, just the alternative of offering mirrorless experience to advanced users for video, high rates bursts and better AF-C tracking, like Sony and Panasonic already do.
Could be full frame or APS-C, I would not bother.
The size penalty of staying K-mount would not matter, I already have bought into M43 for sessions when small size matters.

Should I came to the conclusion that Pentax could exit the market, that would not encourage me to buy anymore in the Pentax system, and I would probably only invest in M43, while keeping my Pentax gear as long as it will last.

[Simen1]

Some statiastics: The last 10 years it was released 19 APS-C Pentax cameras. Its a little difficult to classify them, but in my opinion they had two main lines, top and bottom models from 2007-1012 and three main lines, top, mid and bottom lines from 2012-2017. 6 of the 19 was top models (K20D, K-7, K-5, K-5II, K-3, K-3II), (again my interpretation of model class). This indicates that higher end models have a longer product cycle then lower end models.

Predicting a FF strategy, I believe the product cycle will be more then 2 years. Probably 4 for the top models like K-1. But this doesn't take into account that it may be lower end full frame models or that K-1 may switch from high to low end full frame. I doubt there will be only one full frame class. I think it will be two. I believe the K-1 are more expensive to make then competitors cameras in the same price neighborhood. So I doubt the theory that K-1 may be priced down and become a low end FF model. I believe it will get a higher end brother (not replacement) and sell out before they introduce a cheaper variety. Just to make it easier to refer to, I will call them K-1 super and K-1 light.

I expect the K-1 super to get upgraded AF and video, faster framerate and more features, especially SR related features and connectivity features (automatic composition adjustment stitching, Theta, thetering ..). Price: somewhat higher then K-1, Release: 2018.

I expect the K-1 light to inherit much from K-1, but with some cost cuts (no GPS, no hinged screen), some addons (built in flash), noise improvements, video improvements. I also expect it to be more lightweight and design oriented (like KP vs K-3II). The sensor choice is a wildcard. Price: somewhat lower then K-1, Release: 2020.

This makes a way for two 4 year product cycles alternating every second year between the high and low end full frame.

[Tatouzou]

Some statiastics: The last 10 years it was released 19 APS-C Pentax cameras. Its a little difficult to classify them, but in my opinion they had two main lines, top and bottom models from 2007-1012 and three main lines, top, mid and bottom lines from 2012-2017. 6 of the 19 was top models (K20D, K-7, K-5, K-5II, K-3, K-3II), (again my interpretation of model class). This indicates that higher end models have a longer product cycle then lower end models.

IMO, though not flagship, KP is among the high end models

Predicting a FF strategy, I believe the product cycle will be more then 2 years. Probably 4 for the top models like K-1. But this doesn't take into account that it may be lower end full frame models or that K-1 may switch from high to low end full frame. I doubt there will be only one full frame class. I think it will be two. I believe the K-1 are more expensive to make then competitors cameras in the same price neighborhood. So I doubt the theory that K-1 may be priced down and become a low end FF model. I believe it will get a higher end brother (not replacement) and sell out before they introduce a cheaper variety. Just to make it easier to refer to, I will call them K-1 super and K-1 light.

I expect the K-1 super to get upgraded AF and video, faster framerate and more features, especially SR related features and connectivity features (automatic composition adjustment stitching, Theta, thetering ..). Price: somewhat higher then K-1, Release: 2018.

I dont believe Ricoh will do it before 2020 (4 years after K1 release)
Meanwhile, in 2018, there might come a new APS-C flagship to replace the aging K3/K3-II. It might implement a new PDAF sensor and software deliveriing a better AF-C performance, which is where Pentax lags behind the competition.

I expect the K-1 light to inherit much from K-1, but with some cost cuts (no GPS, no hinged screen), some addons (built in flash), noise improvements, video improvements. I also expect it to be more lightweight and design oriented (like KP vs K-3II). The sensor choice is a wildcard. Price: somewhat lower then K-1, Release: 2020.

Removing the GPS wont be a cost cutting decision: the components are derived from smartphones, and thus probably low cost, and the software is in K3-II and K1. IMO, choosing between built in flash and GPS is more a decision about market segmentation and what the camera is designed for. If you think about lightweight and video in a 2020 camera (three year from now), replacing the OVF by an EVF might be a more appealing option to differentiate from the FF flagship. If EVF is chosen, there might be room to house both built-in flash and GPS.

This makes a way for two 4 year product cycles alternating every second year between the high and low end full frame.

[Simen1]

Meanwhile, in 2018, there might come a new APS-C flagship to replace the aging K3/K3-II.

I believe that will happen before 2018, and be disconnected from what is happening to full frame.

If you think about lightweight and video in a 2020 camera (three year from now), replacing the OVF by an EVF might be a more appealing option to differentiate from the FF flagship.

That is a good thought, though I believe they would test the reception of that concept in an APS-C model before taking it to full frame. I believe a good pentaprism are a stronger expectation from full frame customers.

[camyum]

again, short version:
my personal oppinion: Ricoh-Imaging should "hitch up the horses" and look a bit what is going on.


if people want mediocre or compactness, they buy a smartphone with a good camera... EOL


long version:
if you want to keep it compact... you will most certainly buy a 1" sensor compact.
(the reason why sony is now able to charge about the same price as for the first RX1, for their next RX100 iteration is simple: because it gets sold like hotcake...)

I dont see any importance on updates for APS-C... since it is a fact that everyone seems to be 100% satisfied with their APS-C gear.
No one seems to like 4k video, ...
No one seems to like faster burst rates...
No one seems to like longer burst rates...
No one seems to like clearer pictures(so sensors with bigger sensor-pixel size but therefore a bit lower resolution)
No one seems to like better AF system
No one seems to like faster AF...
No one seems to like more reliable memory solutions...(XQD, CF)
No one seems to like even more security for their pictures(dual slot)
(since a KP with one slot that costs a lot more than a K-3 seems to be totally OK)

and since those oppinions get repeated endlessly, APS-C users should be satisfied a 100% isn't it?



So whats the deal about an update to APS-C? actually i dont understand that.
Typical Pentax APS-C users seem to have one priority: cheap....?

So why not stay with the actual models with smaller improvements every year but therefore dirt-cheap?
I guess at least, most of the PF-users that "post the most" would like that.

On the other hand it seems, FF offers a chance to gain GREAT sales-numbers.
(Just look at the sales numbers of those quirky A7 bodies)

According what one can read on the net and gets told by photo-sales people, the Pentax K-1 is a real hit... and also sells like hotcake.
So it would be time to get it going and concentrate on what counts and put full throttle on development of faster focusing FF-glass and more capable FF bodies, or better diversity:
2 lines of FF cameras with K-mount.

(one with faster AF, less MP, a bit cheaper and less "handling innovations" and the other one with high MP sensor, new interface gadgets, LEDs, etc.)

Even APS-C users would profit from a big selection of lenses made for a modern FF-DSLRs since AF-speed of those lenses would improve and edge to edge sharpness would be excellent on crop, since such lenses are built to perform good on FF sensors... they should perform even better on APS-C.

What totally would make sense, may be a mirrorless FF with a K-Mount adapter.

But who knows. Pentax seems to be very restrictive to hand out informations on future plans or the "inner circles" of Ricoh-Imaging are indecisive and/or jumpy about their plans for the PENTAX-RICOH future... to me it seems they would really like to keep the K-mount but get away from the pentax brand and instead brand ALL their cameras with RICOH...
what i actually wouldnt mind, as long as they build cool cameras.

That would help to get away from the "bad AF" prejudice that is part reasonable, and it would help the company to trade their name into general public, what actually was their intent when they acquired pentax i guess. (there once was printed RICOH on the K-3 back above the lcd...)
But the problem here may be with the community again, since PF was in "shock and awe" when we where able to read RICOH on the back of the 1st series of Pentax K-3...


What the hell.... at least one can jump ship now if he wants innovation and mirrorless cameras from the system he buys into.(seems to be the right time to sell off, before the PENTAX-hype abates.)

Nikon: If We Go Mirrorless, It Must Be Full Frame
Nikons plans for a FF-mirrorless system with superfast lenses(F:0.9, F:1.2) seem to take shape.

So it seems old sayings still keep the truth: He that will not hear, must feel.

[Lord Lucan]

it seems they would really like to keep the K-mount but get away from the pentax brand and instead brand ALL their cameras with RICOH...
what i actually wouldnt mind, as long as they build cool cameras.

Yes, it would not matter. The old brand names are now bought and sold and swapped around between the big industrials like kid's marbles, and have ceased to mean much any more. Nevertheless, to many of us Pentax were one of the big five (Canon, Minolta, Nikon, Olympus, Pentax) and Ricoh were in the "second division" with Cosina, Practika, Petri, Dixons-own-brands, and worse.

[camyum]

Yes, it would not matter. The old brand names are now bought and sold and swapped around between the big industrials like kid's marbles, and have ceased to mean much any more. Nevertheless, to many of us Pentax were one of the big five (Canon, Minolta, Nikon, Olympus, Pentax) and Ricoh were in the "second division" with Cosina, Practika, Petri, Dixons-own-brands, and worse.

actually ASAHI PENTAX was number one with the spotmatic and indeed the first company to offer an SLR in Japan. before kwhanon, etc.
we all know yep.
nonetheless times change and PENTAX (to me it seems) was undermined by rats, and traded like ... yea... lets say kid's marbles to keep it family friendly.

absolutely agreed...
but RICOH actually never showed any effort on getting anywhere with there analog SLRs anyway...

Thing is:
Ricoh always scored big from professional photographers in the 90 to the early 2000s for their very compact and professional compact 135 cameras.
Ricoh GR1
Ricoh GR1s
Ricoh GR1v
Ricoh GR10
Ricoh GR21
Ricoh R1(amazingly small and still a bit professional at a good price)

And that was carried on into the digital era.

• GR Digital
• GR Digital II
• GR Digital III
• GR Digital IV
• GR
• GR II

Believe it or not, even the GXR has a very good(if not excellent) reputation amongst other professional photographers.
For a short time it was said to be the better digital LEICA!!!(it also offered an APS-C module with Leica M-mount)

and the GR is the non-plus-ultra digital compact camera for street....
So it is the only camera that offers the same street shooting feeling you may have had in analog times with either a RICOH GR(1/v/s), Contax T3, the smaller Yashicas or Fuji Natura.
You can dump all the Sony RX1R and Leica Q cameras in the trash.

Just look at the output, handling and size of a RICOH GR...
NOTHING even comes close, every serious photographer will agree to that.
The thing, the GR "idea" would need to totally kick Sony RX100s ass and to be more of a blockbuster then a specialists tool, would be a duo-focal design....(glass that is capable of offering either 35mm@F:2.8 or 70mm@F:4 for instance) ... they tried to give more reach with the GXR but the thing was too overengineered, despite that sensors in zoom-modules where much to small - so no good. According to that, nobody seemed to realise what the GXR could have offered in the future, if it had a broader acceptance from the beginning.
But thats not the point.

Point is: RICOH has such a great reputation at the moment from everywhere for concentrating on the essentials. Now would be the time.
And i would bet my underwear, that RICOH would pump loads more of their money into developing and more feature rich cameras, if one could see the RICOH brandname on front of the cameras... because that also trades back value to the mother lode...
And goodd. you can see the RICOH brandname at so many sports events...
keywords: extra advertising cost . think about that.

You wont see the big money invested in adverts for k-mount cameras until there is ricoh printed on it.
Or camera division splits off and again writes PENTAX on every product except the GR...
That would be the very moment when the PENTAX brand would have reached total (100%)ridiculousness... and a very painful end.
I would rather see the PENTAX brandname fade away in peace and with a last bit of honor.

At the moment i have the feeling, that the K-mount cameras are treated more like an orphan... just look at all those lenses still having screw drive, etc.
Its RICOHs ...Cinderalla if you wish so.
Where is that darn prince? Ah! OK, he is actually here OK, they married.
But why Cinderella still carries the name of her wicked stepmother?? No one knows.

[surfar]

No one knows.

Nice post about nothing new,

Point is: RICOH

Would lose Pentaxians by doing what you suggest AND they did the K1 to retain their client base.Get this in your head,the K-1 is the budget entry level FF K mount.It just happens to be right up there as a Landscape camera and does most stills pretty well,apart from fast action.Built tough and with Longevity.

When version 2 arrives,it will rival the latest Nikon(d850).Likely time is a guess, but maybe 2019,more likely 2020.By that time,it'll be PRIMEtime,meaning the lenses on the roadmap will likely be available.And there may be a surprise or 3.

[Bob 256]

The only reasons I purchased my K-1 is that it is a FF DSLR, Pentax, and is full-featured with a good reputation. Additionally, it had to support the Pentax lenses I already have. At present, I'm not looking for a "new edition" since the current K-1 has most all the features I would ever want and can clearly best FF film in resolution. There are certainly improvements that can be made, but unless something really sensational comes along, I'm not willing to buy. What will keep me as a Pentax (Ricoh) customer is good support for the Pentax cameras I currently have, and continued "upgrades" through firmware support. If and when, I purchase my next DSLR (and it will be a DSLR) it will be dependent on those same factors listed above and my perception of on-going support.

I would venture to say that Ricoh will release the next edition of the K-1 when it feels it can make a profit on sales. That might be dampened in the near future by the number of people who have bought the present K-1. Only a limited number will trade up and only a limited number of Pentaxians are holding off buying, waiting for that next edition, so that limits sales of a new model, which are bottom line. Retooling is costly, so as with any company, the motivation for issuing a new model will be when sales on the existing model start to flatten, and potential sales (for a new model) are seen to be rising. Those criteria don't currently exist and may not for some time, so don't start banking up for the K-1+ too soon.

[funktionsfrei]

Just a guess:

A K-1 successor might appear in about two years. It could be using the same sensor as the Nikon D850, albeit "upgraded" by pixelshift, thus capable of creating RAW images in completely ridiculous sizes ...

I stick with my K-1 for the foreseeable future; it's so good that I notice the deficits of my lenses, thus an improvement in the camera's resolution would just increase my lens grievances ...

[surfar]

Just a guess:

The sensor in the D850 isnt a Sony which Ricoh has used as sensor provider,i'd guess the sensor in the the A7r2 (42mp) could be in the next K-1.

it's so good that I notice the deficits of my lenses

The DFA lenses are worth the investment,28-105 and 70-200 will do most.I used my DA and film era lenses to start with,the DFAs are great.

[gaweidert]

Since there has already been an Asahi Pentax and a Honeywell Pentax, the thought of a Ricoh Pentax does not bother me. I don't see why it should bother the purists either. It is just part of the history of Pentax.

I have two Ricoh XRM's at home and they were great values for the money. They served me well from Maine to Oregon and a lot of placed in between including three trips to Yellowstone. I love the little Speedlight flash that clips onto the side of the camera. It was a pretty clever idea.

[normhead]

If you've followed the statements by Pentax, the K-1 was pushed back a year, because a new sensor became available for the 645z. Conclusion, there's one design team. With the release of the K-P, in the modern Pentax world since the K-30, K-P type models showcase and test technology that will be used in the next APS_c flagship. So my guess is, right now the design team is working on that project. K-1 and 645z are still in the pipeline but not the focus.

I wouldn't even be thinking about a K-1 update until the next APS-c flagship comes out. The 645z jumped to the head of the line because of new available technology, so that can happen, but it's more likely we'll see a logical progression through the models. The price of the K-P almost rules out a 24 MP FF. It almost rules out any flagship APS-c model as well. No one has a clue what Pentax is thinking right now.

But with my K-1 and K-3, it's not like I really care. My response to anything Pentax offers, based on their roadmap and current product is likely to be "No thanks I'm good."

What I have meets my needs, and what they are proposing isn't of interest. Wake me up in 5 years, I'm going for a Rip Van Winkle now.

[surfar]

What I have meets my needs

Yes,and thats a good thing....I love looking at and testing the new innovative stuff(and not just camera gear),the tech we are getting is quite amazing.Digital is still reasonably young but look at the progress.

Now, the bottom line is,if an individual can incorporate the tech into their lifestyle.Consider the usefullness???As well as the cost!!!!...Then thats all good.

K-1 meets my needs for the niche it fills....

I'm going for a Rip Van Winkle now.

Cya in 5 years!

[Rupert]

Some interesting thought in this thread. I gained very little from my K1 over my K5IIs but since my K5IIs was badly damaged in a fall and Mrs Rupert bought me the K1, I had nothing to lose. I do love the K1 and find it an exceptional camera in so many ways.

However, need says I won't need any improvement in a later model for some time. If you have what works for you, and it works well, why spend more cash. It would have to have remarkable improvements to tempt me for a later model when it does come.....I see others here with the same view.

An example of my way of thinking......I have a 97' Jeep Wrangler I special ordered back 20 years ago for Mrs Rupert. I keep it in superb condition. Sure, the new models have some fancy new features and are very nice indeed....but none of the features are better than what I already have for my needs. I can buy any new model, I am old and have more money than time left....but I have what I like in this Jeep and also all that I need.

Maybe we can call it "practical thinking"? I have heard a few squirrels call it "Big Brain Thinking".........anyhow, it works for me!

Oldie but still plenty "Goodie"!


Best Regards!
Rupert