Originally posted by house There are probably hundreds of articles, videos and blog posts proclaiming the death of the DSLR. Its a default part of the conversation these days. Referencing this meme in the article ties it in with the wider conversation.
There are some exceptionally fragile responses above. The reading between the lines is also beyond any measure of reasonability plus a naivety about the level commercial writing is at.
There are two different issues here. First is the number of DSLRs and lenses out there and in use. The second is where industry investment is going looking to the future.
It is clear that a simply huge number of DSLRs and lenses are out there and in use. They will be available, even if increasingly second hand, for many years to come, although the indications seem to be that mirrorless cameras are increasingly the ones that are bought new although not the only ones. Mirrorless cameras are only just starting to get to grips with the heights of sports and action of the Canon 1DX kind. It will take a while before the big three camera companies have sorted that one out and no doubt even longer before the professional photography corps make significant changes.
It is also clear that industry investment is going towards what we call mirrorless cameras. I think this is more generally Augmented Reality. An EVF is augmented reality, really, and so are an increasing number of software programs that will transform an original image by for example changing the sky, removing things, putting other things in, and so forth. The resulting image may bear little resemblance to what the photographer actually saw. Still, I would guess that 'mirrorless' and software come together into a new Augmented Reality paradigm especially when seen in its widest sense to include smartphones. This challenges our whole idea of what a photograph and photography are, especially when we consider software than can create lifelike, photo-real portraits or landscapes using CGi and not involving an original photograph at all. At that stage, will a camera even be necessary?
The question is whether this is the way the next generation want to go. They are raised on Augmented Reality - think of all the apps of the TikTok kind - so probably this is where they will go, and industry investment will go with them. However, just as there are some photographers who think a 5"x4" film camera is very heaven, so there will also be photographers for whom staying with the straightforward, basic approach offered by a DSLR matters and is what they prefer. Perhaps there won't be many of them in years to come, but they will be there. In any case, perhaps there don't need to be many of them for a small boutique company like Pentax to find a niche. It's obvious after all that the K3 Mark III is a very good camera and no doubt a new K1 in due course with its innovations will be very good too. And film photography, for example, hasn't disappeared and in fact is steadily becoming more popular.
Most internet articles I've read don't consider these matters very deeply. They are after an easy the-one-vs-the-other comparison because that makes for easy clicks. But shifts like this are never as straightforward and never as complete as the internet boosters would have you think. But start saying that and the clicks go down, so we don't read about it very often.